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Posted on 08/28/2008 4:28:18 AM PDT by PreciousLiberty
We have observed spectroscopic changes in temperature sensitive molecular lines, in the magnetic splitting of an Fe I line, and in the continuum brightness of over 1000 sunspot umbrae from 1990-2005. All three measurements show consistent trends in which the darkest parts of the sunspot umbra have become warmer (45K per year) and their magnetic field strengths have decreased (77 Gauss per year), independently of the normal 11-year sunspot cycle. A linear extrapolation of these trends suggests that few sunspots will be visible after 2015.
(Excerpt) Read more at icecap.us ...
that happened a long, long time ago. You mean, in his latest self-incarnation as saviour of the globe.
My father has been saying this for sometime. We are going to have a “Little Ice Age”.
Which makes the US in an interesting spot. If we go back to normal, crop production in places like Russia will plummet.
And we will probably have much wetter areas to the south.
It’s almost the same here. Summer was cool and rainy, August has been hot and cool and a bit humid but not so bad. Wonder how the winter will be this year?
Well, not exactly. The "start" of the next cycle is overdue. No sunspots at the "expected" peak would be fun, especially if the next cycle did finally get started, but then quit WAY early. That's the way I see the plots in the paper (though there is so much variability in the actual data of the plots, it's all quite the crapshoot). It'll be fun to watch the future unfold. Until then, I'll take it one day at a time predicting the # of sunspots tomorrow based on the number for the last week. To quote the Sunspot Nazi: "No sunspots for you" - tomorrow.
So is my Yaesu 400DX. Dagnabbit!
Has HF propagation been bad? I haven't tried in a few years (been too busy).
‘Well, not exactly. The “start” of the next cycle is overdue. No sunspots at the “expected” peak would be fun, especially if the next cycle did finally get started, but then quit WAY early. That’s the way I see the plots in the paper (though there is so much variability in the actual data of the plots, it’s all quite the crapshoot). It’ll be fun to watch the future unfold. Until then, I’ll take it one day at a time predicting the # of sunspots tomorrow based on the number for the last week. To quote the Sunspot Nazi: “No sunspots for you” - tomorrow.’
The way I’m reading this, it is possible this minimum won’t really end - just like the beginning of the Maunder Minimum. I guess the question at this point is whether or not the core temp of the sunspots rises enough to make them ‘invisible’ before Cycle 24 really picks up. On the other hand, this minimum may just be an exceptionally long minimum.
What makes this even more interesting, is twice now recently on the “NASA Solar Weather” site, the admins have been excited about pre-sunspot Cycle 24 activity. They can see “proto-sunspots” in certain spectral bands. Both times, the regions failed to produce actual sunspots. This paper seems to provide a possible explanation.
Regardless, I believe we’re in a cooling trend now, and the longer this minimum goes, one way or the other, the stronger the trend is going to be. It should last at least through Cycle 24, as I understand things.
What makes for even more ‘interesting times’ is the number of other cooling factors that seem to be kicking in:
o Volcanism (Chile and Alaska in particular)
o Pacific Decadal Oscillation
o Atlantic Decadal Oscillation
o Possibly ‘Primary Forcing Mechanism for Climate’
I hope all of that isn’t enough to tip us into an actual Ice Age. We’re supposedly not all that far away from the next one. BTW, for those that haven’t been paying attention ;-), human produced greenhouse gasses won’t have a significant effect on any of this.
I haven’t yet read this article. Probably will do so this evening
In your list of things going on now, though, you forgot the under sea major volcanic activity in the Arctic.
A different metric, which concedes your point that “no sunspots should be expected now”, is the length of solar cycle being correlated to Earth’s temperature. I’ve been writing about this for some time.
As I write today, the current solar cycle #23 has been in progress for 147 months, since May’96.
Global temperatures have been shown to be strongly correlated with solar cycle length. A cycle that is 4 months longer can be expected to yield a temperature lower by 0.1C .
The previous five cycles, from 1944 to 1996, had a cycle length of 125mo - shorter (and therefore hotter) than the average cycle of the last 200 years, which was about 133mo.
Given that this cycle has been about 22 months longer than the previous 5 cycles, we should expect that this is putting into place at present, a -0.55C difference from the last couple decades.
See: http://www.tmgnow.com/repository/solar/lassen1.html for the study.
That’s interesting.
I’d never heard the “length of cycle” story.
“In your list of things going on now, though, you forgot the under sea major volcanic activity in the Arctic.”
Well...that is actually in the “warming” column. Stratospheric dust is required for volcanic cooling.
Granted, it may be contributing to the false impression that global warming is causing the Arctic ice to melt. There is also a contribution from normal, cyclic weather patterns.
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First time I heard it mentioned nearly a decade ago, I couldn’t believe it, and discounted it as being mere coincidence. I no longer think so.
Oops. Thanks grey_whiskers!
THANKS.
Seems like I’d read some hints of such in some of the UFO literature.
Certainly the electric gravity/universe stuff has been in the UFO lit for some time.
BTW,
I added some very fascinating stuff, links, leaked old docs etc. at the end of this thread relative to
Linda Moulton Howe’s C2C session last night:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1958871/posts?page=486#486
What a crock! Everyone knows that (according to the Mayan Calender), it's lights out for the Earth in 2012...so we'll be gone three-years before this Sun spot issue can be confirmed. /snort/
It's a year closer to 2015...
And despite the claims elsewhere of the Solar Conveyor belts and 22 degrees latitude being the harbinger of Sunspot activity...it remains remarkably quiet!
Cheers!
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