Posted on 08/25/2008 4:08:59 PM PDT by Momaw Nadon
According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2008 Presidential Election.
If the traders are correct, John McCain would receive 227 Electoral Votes and Barack Obama would receive 311 Electoral Votes.
If the weighted probabilities of John McCain winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then John McCain should get 248.30 Electoral Votes.
270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.
Opinions and commentary are welcome.
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/18/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/11/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/4/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/7/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/30/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/23/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/16/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/9/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/2/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/26/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/19/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/12/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/5/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/7/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/31/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/24/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/17/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/10/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/3/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/25/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/18/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/11/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/4/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/7/2008
Yikes.
I guess this means Obama has already won?
This is unadulterated junk.
How exactly does Obama win Ohio and Virginia now with Joltin’ Joe (haha I actually misstyped hoe in my preview comment and really should have kept it) as his running mate? I call BS on some of this, but it’s still up to McCain to take advantage of this massive blunder.
No. Actually, McCain has strengthened his position in most states over the past week.
Nevada slipped to just under 50%.
Obama is a tulip.
Anyone know where these numbers stood in 2000 at this point in the election cycle?
Your just scaring people with this. This is a really old map with old numbers.
If true, I see a “Storm coming in” as Sarah Connor would say. I believe if Obama wins, we are in for deep trouble.
Yeah, it scares me!
I don't have any data from 2000, but there is some from 2004.
If the weighted probabilities of Obummer winning in the states are added up, and then divided by the square root of 333, and multiplied by 100 then subtracted from 53 (the normal IQ of most dem’s, then Obummer should get 1 Electoral Vote.
270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.
The numbers are from about an hour ago.
If you look more closely at them, you'll see that McCain is actually in a decent position, and is poised to take the lead in Electoral Votes.
I still have a premonition of sorts that this will end up a 269-269 tie in the EC. That should scare the hell out of everyone...
Glad i saw this, guess it is usless for me vote in Virginia.
But, just for kicks I will mosey on down to the voting station and vote just in case this is a large lie.
No, you need to understand the source.
InTrade is a futures market, in which people bet with real money on the outcome -- in this case it's the outcome of each state.
The "% chance of winning" is actually the current price of a futures contract that pays off $1 if McCain wins. Alaska is 80.0, so it's 80 cents to buy that contract. You would make 20 cents profit if McCain wins Alaska, or lose 80 cents if Obama wins Alaska.
The price of the contract is supposed to represent the "collective wisdom" of the traders. But if they are collectively biased for one reason or another, it won't be accurate. It certainly doesn't represent any kind of scientific poll.
Take a look at the site, and you'll see futures contracts for lots of things, political and non-political. Look at the current prices, and you'll learn a lot about the people that trade there. Then, you can decide if you agree with them.
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