Posted on 08/21/2008 7:42:53 AM PDT by Presbyterian Reporter
Is American Jewry finally waking up from its love affair with the Democratic Party? That, at least, is the question that comes to mind when one considers some very interesting polling data that emerged recently. As odd as it may sound, Republican presidential candidate John McCain may just be poised to capture a significant percentage of the Jewish vote.
Early last month, you'll recall, headlines blared in the US and Israeli press trumpeting the results of a Gallup survey conducted back in April which found that American Jews preferred Democratic hopeful Barack Obama by a margin of 61 to 32 over his GOP rival.
For many observers, it seemed to confirm the time-honored tradition that American Jews continue to remain solidly in the Democratic camp. After all, a two-to-one margin represents a compelling advantage. However, here's something the mainstream media has not, and likely will not, tell you: Obama's support among US Jewry is on the decline.
This became apparent in another, more recent Gallup poll published on June 5, which showed that the race for support among American Jews has begun to tighten, with Obama now leading McCain by a margin of 57 to 35. That represents a narrowing of the gap from 29 to 22 points in just one month. Moreover, it comes despite the free ride, and the fawning coverage, that Obama has been getting from much of the American press.
Moreover, this latest poll was conducted after it had become clear that Obama was set to be the Democratic nominee, whereas the previous survey took place when Hillary Clinton was still very much in the race as well. In other words, now that American Jews are confronted with the stark choice between Obama and McCain, a noticeable shift has begun to take place towards the Republican contender.
The reasons for this shift are not too hard to identify. Clearly, the controversy surrounding Obama's contentious pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, hurt him among US Jews who might otherwise have supported him. Many are also wary of his connections with people on the far-left anti-Israel scene, and suspect that his inexperience will hinder his ability to perform as president. Moreover, Obama's stated willingness to court dictators such as Iranian leader Mahmoud Ahmadinejad raises serious question marks about whether he is up to the task of defending Israel and the West in an increasingly dangerous world.
His grand flip-flop on Jerusalem earlier this month will only serve to add to those concerns. Just one day after his rousing speech at the AIPAC conference in Washington, where he said he supports Israeli control over a united Jerusalem, Obama unceremoniously back-tracked in order to appease Arab anger. That will only exacerbate the growing unease that many Jews feel over where he really stands on core issues of importance to them.
Indeed, it is becoming increasingly apparent that many US Jews, after taking a closer look at the senator from Illinois, are now scratching their heads as to their original reflex Democrat selection. Sure, you might be thinking, but he is still getting 57 percent of the Jewish vote in the latest poll, and that is still a healthy majority. That may be true, but consider the following: both Bill Clinton and Al Gore each won approximately 80 percent of the Jewish vote when they sought the presidency. Even the dour and uninspiring Democratic candidate John Kerry was able to take home 75 percent in the 2004 contest.
So if Obama is slated to capture just 57 percent of American Jewish ballots, or possibly even less, that would nonetheless constitute a dramatic failure on his part. How much does this really matter? Quite a lot, actually. According to a 2001 study by the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, some 30% to 35% of American Jewish voters "can be lured by any party depending on its position."
Sprinkled among key battleground states in the campaign, that large group in the middle "adds up to a swing vote representing up to 2% of the electorate in states like Florida and Pennsylvania," the report noted. In addition, in the 2000 cliffhanger election between George W. Bush and Al Gore, which hinged on the outcome in Florida, that Jewish "swing vote" might have made all the difference. "A shift of that amount," the study found, "would have changed the result in that state and, in all probability, single-handedly crowned the American president. Put another way, the Jewish swing vote, mobilized behind a particular candidate, would have given him the 2000 election."
This simple fact of electoral life hasn't changed all that much in the intervening eight years, meaning that a historic opportunity may be at hand for Republican John McCain. If he continues to court the Jewish vote, and underline his opponent's obvious weak points when it comes to Israel and the Middle East, McCain could very well make further headway among American Jews and draw more of them into the Republican column.
By stressing bread-and-butter issues, like the security of the Jewish state, its right to self-defense, and the need to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, the Arizona senator might conceivably match, or even surpass, the 40 percent of the Jewish vote that Ronald Reagan won back in the 1980s. While that won't necessarily guarantee him victory in the race for the White House, it might just tip the scales in his favor in a close contest. Just as important, it could seal growing Jewish support for the GOP in the years and decades to come.
Michael Freund is Chairman of Shavei Israel A Non-Profit Organization Management industry
I’m a middle-aged Jew and I’m telling you that it’s changing...
I’m a middle-aged Jew and I’m telling you that it’s changing...
Yes the blame America former weathermen crowd.
Cat jugglers are still behind him 100%.
Here is the jewish vote in presidential elections
1992
Bush (R) 11
Clinton (D) 80
Perot (I) 9
1996
Dole (R) 16
Clinton (D) 78
Perot (I) 3
2000
Bush (R) 19
Gore (D) 79
Nader (G) 1
2004*
Bush (R) 24
Kerry (D) 76
Nader (G) <1
Here is Jimmy Carter’s Jewish vote before and after Camp David.
Even though the Jewish vote for Obama is way down vs other Democrat presidential candidates, the Jews could be setting themselves up for a repeat of their 1976 vote for Jimmy Carter when he garnered 71% of the vote.
1976
Ford (R) 27
Carter (D) 71
McCarthy (I) 2
1980
Reagan (R) 39
Carter (D) 45
Anderson (I) 14
1984
Reagan (R) 31
Mondale (D) 67
In addition to his experience and other impressive attributes, this may well be why Eric Cantor’s name keeps popping up on McCain’s prospective VP list.
Eric Cantor also has a very impressive Pro Life record.
My short list for VP is:
Cantor
Jindal
Pawlenty
Any of the above would make a lot of sense for McCain to pick. Since Louisiana is already in the Republican column, I would pick Cantor or Pawlenty in an effort to win Minnesota or Virginia.
As a Jewish freeper (in Canada, but highly conservative nonetheless) I scratch my head a lot. Conservative Prime Ministers like Harper, and in the UK Thatcher, and Presidents like Nixon and Reagan support and outright save Israel. Who flew in the jets in 1973? There’s that 1930’s western europe mentality that if you blend enough, if you’re talented enough, if you’re part of the academic or artistic society they won’t come for you. Liberal Jews have forgotten history.
Excellent VP list - I’d be pleased with any, but admit Cantor would be terrific and first choice IMHO.
And of all the groups out there, this one hurts the GOP the least. They've always voted 90% dim, so it's not a net gain for them or a net loss for us.
For most American Jews Israel is not a major consideration when they vote. I wouldn’t call them “self-loathing.” Most families vote the same way from generation to generation on social and local issues. They are just living their lives. What’s wrong with that? If they are self-loathing, so is everyone else who votes Democrat. Come on.
Here in Israel Bush had the highest approval rating consistently of any president, most of the time at 70 per cent and McCain is way out in front too; Israel is the only one of 23 foreign countries surveyed where he’s favored, last time I’ve looked. But Obama is ahead among the young, including soldiers, because of his style.
Most unpopular president here? Bush Sr. That’s because of the insolent way Baker talked to Shamir the whole time including his famous expression, “F-ck the Jews.” That’s why it was such a pleasant surprise to see how totally different the son was regarding Israel. Bush Jr. will be remembered for good.
Your comment about Bush Sr is reflected in the Jewish vote. Bush Sr only received 11% of the Jewish vote. The lowest percent received by any Republican Presidential Candidate since 1976.
False Messiah fading even among Liberal Jews ping.
I forgot to add that Bush SR got 35% of the Jewish vote in 1988.
If Obama were wise, but I doubt that he is, he would go out of his way to befriend Israel in no uncertain terms.
The Jewish vote may only be 2%, but it is a powerful vote in presidential elections.
1988
Bush (R) 35
Dukakis (D) 64
Should Obama return to his roots of Islam (For some reason he might win the office of POTUS, at this point the polarity of the earth reverses) I am certain the Jews can take pride in not being bigots and racist.
For the life of me I cannot understand how anyone of the Jewish faith can vote for a Democrat. The RATS openly and publically insult Jews continuosly. It’s not an isolated case...it’s the whole RAT party.
Someone explain this to me!
Just watch what the Orthodox Jews due as they will vote for McCain and not Obama.
I had an interesting conversation with a friend of mine the other day. We have great conversations at work ranging from old Seinfeld episodes to the recent invasion in Georgia. Now my friend happens to be Jewish(I am a Catholic). This past Saturday we were yapping away and half jokingly I asked him why the Jewish people so overwhelmingly supported Democtrats. I said it really bothered me since the candidates and party associated themselves with people that have proclaimed their driving force is the elimination of the state of Israel. He first mumbled something about “all politicians being the same” and then he sort of challenged me to give examples of these politicians. Well being an avid reader of Free Republic, I was able to give him 8-10 quick examples.
His silence was deafening and I am still waiting for a reply. Now this is a man that is quite outspoken in the local Jewish community and is publicly associated with several Jewish organizations so I was surprised at his silence.I can only assume his silence is a reaction to a question that he has been asking himself and has found no answer. Perhaps we need to reach out to our Jewish friends and challenge them on their strange behavior and stranger beliefs.
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