Posted on 08/14/2008 6:09:52 AM PDT by Schnucki
AMERICA'S George Bush delivered a stark warning to Russia this week that led Russia to begin to pull back its forces in Georgia. Mr Bush sent his secretary of state, Condoleezza Rice, to Georgia and told his defence secretary, Robert Gates, to organise a humanitarian-aid operation. The first American military aircraft landed at Tbilisi airport on Thursday August 14th.
This conflict is about more than the two separatist regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, or displacing Mikheil Saakashvili, Georgia’s hot-headed president. It is about Russia, resurgent and nationalistic, pushing its way back into the Caucasus and chasing others out, and reversing the losses Russia feels it has suffered since the end of the cold war.
The fact that Georgia is backed by the West made it a particularly appealing target. In fighting Georgia, Russia fought a proxy war with the West—especially with America (which had upgraded the Georgian army). All this was a payback for the humiliation that Russia suffered in the 1990s, and its answer to NATO’s bombing of Belgrade in 1999 and to America’s invasion of Iraq.
With the smoke of battle still in the air, it is impossible to say who actually started it. But, given the scale and promptness of Russia’s response, the script must have been written in Moscow. The rattling of sabres has been heard in both capitals for months, if not years. Russia imposed sanctions on Georgia and rounded up Georgians in Moscow. In revenge for the recognition of Kosovo’s independence earlier this year, Mr Putin established legal ties with the governments of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
In the late spring, Russia and Georgia came close to a clash over Abkhazia but diplomats pulled the two sides apart. A war in Georgia became a favourite subject in Moscow’s rumour mill. In early July Russia staged a massive military exercise on the border with South Ossetia. At the same time Russian jets flew over the region “to establish the situation” and “cool down Georgia’s hot-heads”, according to the Russians.
South Ossetia is a tiny patchwork of villages—Georgian and South Ossetian—which was easy to drag into a war. It is headed by a thuggish former Soviet official, Eduard Kokoity, and run by the Russian security services. It lives off smuggling and Russian money. In early August Georgian and South Ossetian separatists exchanged fire and explosive attacks. South Ossetia blew up a truck carrying Georgian policemen and attacked Georgian villages; Georgia fired back at the capital of South Ossetia, Tskhinvali.
What happened next is less clear. Russia claims that Mr Saakashvili treacherously broke a unilateral ceasefire he had just announced, ordering a massive offensive on Tskhinvali, ethnically cleansing South Ossetian villages and killing as many as 2,000 people. What triggered the Georgian action, says Mr Saakashvili, was the movement of Russian troops through the Roki tunnel that connects South Ossetia to Russia.
Georgia started to shell and invade Tskhinvali. Then the Russian army moved in. The picture Russia presented to the world seemed clear: Georgia was a reckless and dangerous aggressor and Russia had an obligation, as a peacekeeper in the region, to protect the victims. Russia’s response was predictable. One thing which almost all observers agree on is that Mr Saakashvili made a catastrophic mistake by walking into the Russian trap.
Russia was prepared for the war not only militarily, but also ideologically. Its campaign was crude but effective. While its forces were dropping bombs on Georgia, the Kremlin bombarded its own population with an astonishing propaganda campaign. One Russian deputy reflected the mood: “Today, it is quite obvious who the parties in the conflict are. They are the US, UK, Israel who participated in training the Georgian army, Ukraine who supplied it with weapons. We are facing a situation where there is a NATO aggression against us.”
In blue jeans and a sports jacket, Mr Putin, cast as the hero of the war, flew to the Russian side of the Caucasus mountain range to hear hair-raising stories from refugees that ranged from burning young girls alive to stabbing babies and running tanks over old women and children. These stories were whipped up into anti-Georgian and anti-Western hysteria. What Russia was doing, it seemed, was no different from what the West had done in its “humanitarian” interventions.
There was one difference, however. Russia was dealing with a crisis that it had deliberately created. Its biggest justification for military intervention was that it was formally protecting its own citizens. Soon after Mr Putin’s arrival in the Kremlin in 2000, Russia started to hand out passports to Abkhaz and South Ossetians, while also claiming the role of a neutral peacekeeper in the region. When the fighting broke out between Georgia and South Ossetia, Russia, which had killed tens of thousands of its own citizens in Chechnya, argued that it had to defend its nationals.
The biggest victims of this war are civilians in South Ossetia and Georgia. Militarily, Mr Putin has won. But all Russia has got from its victory so far is a ruined reputation, broken ties with Georgia, control over separatist enclaves (which it had anyway) and fear from other former Soviet republics.
A six-point peace plan negotiated by Nicolas Sarkozy, the French president, recognises Georgian sovereignty but not its integrity. In practice, this means that Russia will not allow Georgia back into Abkhazia and South Ossetia. According to the same plan, Russia should withdraw its troops to where they were before the war broke out.
The ceasefire is signed, but it still needs to be implemented. The early signs were not good with looting, killing and rapes in villages in both Georgia and South Ossetia. On Wednesday the Americans announced that they would send military aircraft and naval forces to deliver humanitarian aid to the Georgians. This seemed to make an impression on the Russians, who soon began to withdraw.
Other former Soviet republics, including Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Ukraine, have been dealt a lesson, about both Russia’s capacity to exert its influence and the weakness of Western commitments. America’s inability to stop or deter Russia from attacking its smaller neighbours has been devastatingly obvious in Georgia over the past week.
Yet the people who are likely in the end to pay the biggest price for the attack on Georgia are the Russians. This price will go well beyond any sanctions America or the European Union could impose. Like any foreign aggression, it will lead to further stifling of civil freedoms in Russia. The war in Georgia has demonstrated convincingly who is in charge in Russia. Just as the war in Chechnya helped Mr Putin’s rise to power in 1999, the war in Georgia may now keep him in power for years to come.
I know we won’t face the russians directly but I would love to see our guys mop up those putrid Russian rapists.
“Just as the war in Chechnya helped Mr Putin’s rise to power in 1999, the war in Georgia may now keep him in power for years to come.”
Good, if the USA falls to the Obamaites, and considering most European leaders have as much integrity and courage as a drag queen in a balarina’s dress in a gay parade, we need some country to maintain what’s left of western civilization.
The only problem is that Russia isn’t civilized.
Good! Now the Russians will have to honor their Peace plan.
Absolutely. As FReeper jsh3180 has so expertly posted:
The US$ rally was set into motion on August 4, by the movement of huge sums of money into short term US Treasury Bonds. The money for the bond purchases was funneled through Swiss and Eastern European institutions. We’re talking $50 Billion. It appears, though no smoking gun, that the funds that set off the US$ rally, was big Russian money. Russian money from connected insiders that knew in advance of the Russian invasion of Georgia. As it came to pass, the Russian invasion caused the Ruble to crash and Russian stock markets to do a swan dive.
All the Russian money pouring into the US$ set off a buying/short covering $ panic. Institutional/hedge fund black box trading algorithms are programmed to do the following when the dollar moves up: Sell Oil, Sell Gold and Commodities, Buy US equities.
The mass movement of Russian money into the $, combined with program trading is THE reason that gold and oil sold off on the news of the Russian invasion, a geopolitical event that normally would have had the opposite effect on oil and gold.
It would appear that the Russian cognoscenti were buying bonds and divesting the ruble on August the 4th. Its pretty clear that they knew war was going to break out on the 8th. No more of this "The Georgians started it" nonsense
Putin's cronies will become very rich indeed when they rebuy crushed ruble stocks.
It's very easy to say who started it.
Georgian police on their normal routine patrols in South Ossetia were hit with IEDs.
When they sent in Georgian soldiers to investigate, the Georgian soldiers were fired upon from mortars placed in Russian-controlled towns.
re: It’s very easy to say who started it
I think we can make one step easier! Get the story from Russia, get it from Georgia. Know that Russia lies, has always lied, will always lie, and like my Mom used to say would lie when the truth would serve them better.
Get the stories, disregard what Russia says.
Putin has revealed himself to be cast in the style of ex Soviet strongman. By these tactics he has managed to alienate a number of ex-Soviet bloc countries driving them closer to deals with America. He’s supposed to be a clever tyrant, but he’s made a very bad move here. It’ll make Russia look strong now, but down the road he has created a ton of problems for his country. I guess once a Soviet bureaucrat always a Soviet bureaucrat.
I’m sorry, but “Russia,” “western,” and “civilization” should not be seen in the same sentence unless one is juxtaposing one or the others.
The National Socialist gangsters running Russia are enemies of Western civilization, and Russia's own relationship with Western civilization has always been ambiguous. Russians don't think of themselves as Westerners.
Russia is definitely “East,” in the traditional understanding of the term.
I have no idea how anyone could conclude that Russia's reputation is ruined. Ruined with whom? And as for the "fear from other former Soviet republics," I think the Russians regard that as a resume enhancer and one of their goals achieved, not to mention the fear and lack of response from western Europe, the US, NATO, UN, etc.
The Russians have only begun on their path to control all of the former Soviet republics as well as western Europe this time around.
Who is going to stop them?
I don't care who you are, that's funny right there.
and running tanks over old women and children.
Hey, Russians don't like it when you take something out of their playbook.
Finland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, the UK, Ireland, Spain, Portugal, France, Italy, Germany, The Netherlands, Belgium, Switzerland, Austria, Poland, The Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, the Ukraine, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Croatia, Slovenia, Turkey, Canada, Australia, Colombia, Japan, the USA, the Philippines etc.
The Russians have only begun on their path to control all of the former Soviet republics as well as western Europe this time around. Who is going to stop them?
NATO.
If Russia tries to invade Poland or Hungary, Russia will cease to exist as a sovereign entity.
ROFLOL!
I don’t think much of NATO military, given their performance in ‘Stan, and I don’t think Russia would cease to exist, but if they try for Poland I do know the Poles will not go gently if they go at all. And given the geography that’s a situation a determined US could become involved effectively.The only problem is the election of the haloed one will be seen as a green light for Putin and his cronies to begin their reconquest of their empire in earnest. With a McCain as POTUS Putin will be limited if not stifled.
You seem to have as inflated a view of Russia's international status and military power as Vladimir Putin does.
You claim that Russia's intention is to take back its Soviet-era satellites.
Georgia is tiny and geographically isolated - so why haven't Russia's oh-so-impressive armed forces taken Tbilisi?
That's all that needs to be done to reestablish Russian authority over the former Soviet Republic of Georgia.
They haven't done so because they fear the consequences.
Russia's conventional military forces were barely up to the task of pacifying tiny Chechyna - even though they had complete operational carte blanche to kill and destroy anyone or anything they wanted.
Russia's trump card is its aging nuclear arsenal: its conventional forces are substandard.
Russia is a hollow joke.
They've done a much better job in Afghanistan than the Russian Army ever did, while committing only a fraction of the forces that Russia committed.
NATO have lost less than 850 men in Afghanistan, fighting against a much-better organized opposition - the Russians lost 15,000 killed that they were willing to officially admit to.
They also lost 120 aircraft, 150 tanks and 350 helicopters.
and I don’t think Russia would cease to exist, but if they try for Poland I do know the Poles will not go gently if they go at all.
If Russia goes for Poland, we are in a nuclear situation.
And in a nuclear situation, Russia would cease to exist as a sovereign entity.
The only problem is the election of the haloed one will be seen as a green light for Putin and his cronies to begin their reconquest of their empire in earnest. With a McCain as POTUS Putin will be limited if not stifled.
I agree with your assessment of Obama and McCain's relative influence on world events, but there is a wild card.
The US military will not stand by idly while Obama permits Russia to run roughshod over the free world and our NATO allies.
In a moment of crisis, Obama will be told what he needs to do in order to keep his job.
Do they have toilet paper in Moscow yet?
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