Posted on 08/10/2008 6:23:22 PM PDT by Maelstorm
Virginia has undergone demographic changes that have made the state friendlier to Democrats. The high-tech jobs in the Northern Virginia suburbs of Washington, D.C., have lured new residents to the state. But Republicans are skeptical the state's voting patterns have changed that dramatically.
Republican Congressman Tom Davis is vacating a Northern Virginia seat Democrats hope to capture in the fall. In an interview in the Capitol, he says some of the Republicans' problems are self-inflicted and that pundits are getting carried away.
"I think they read too much into the state turning blue," he says. "What you have is some changing demographics but most of it is just the Republican brand name being in the trash can, enabling wide-awake Democrats to take advantage of that. And in Virginia they've done that."
Davis says recent state GOP candidates have run poor campaigns, or been too socially conservative to appeal to suburban voters.
(Excerpt) Read more at npr.org ...
I would hope that high tech workers (who actually have to make things that work) would have a sense that increasing taxes, not drilling, and letting everyone in the border door might not bode well for the country in the long term.
Maybe this is why Obama is considering putting Tim Kaine on the ticket, which would be an eyebrow-raising choice. Jim Webb has already announced that he wasn’t interested.
In an aside, Republicans need to stop describing themselves and their supporters as Reds. We can’t control what others say about us, but that doesn’t mean we have to join them.
Its not so much the high tech workers as their wives, to say nothing of the immigrants from Asia (east and south).
I would suggest that the truth is just the opposite, and the longer Republicans believe such myths, the longer they will lose.
Unlikely, but they sure can force McCain to spend tons of money in the state...
VA US Congressman Eric Cantor for VP
Virginia is already blue — Obama or not.
Hard to imagine VA winding up in the Obama column come November with or without Kaine.
It’s time to move some massive military bases into Virginia to balance all those liberal government bureaucrats who are ruining VA politics. We can afford to transfer some of that from Texas, MS, AL to states like VA, WYO, NH, South Dakota, and Oregon. States that are on the fence, changing or have already changed, due to migration of leftists from elsewhere. We can make it up to the states who lose bases, by giving them Nuke plants and lots of drilling.
Not Virginia in this year. Obama is only polling 74% among
democrats which is a disaster. He is actually down since becoming the nominee. This means low democrat turnout.
I suspect it means low white democrat turnout and the black vote anywhere has been high anyway.
However , Clinton might have won Virginia.
Obama will get his wish. :-)
Virginia is one of three “must-win” states for McCain. The other two would be Colorado and Ohio. All three are going to be very, very close. The only other states that truly matter would be Florida, Nevada, and possibly New Mexico and New Hampshire. That’s the whole ballgame, in my opinion.
I give McCain a good chance to win Virginia for two reasons. First, it’s been reliably Republican in Presidential elections for quite some time and Bush carried it easily twice. Second, the two recent winning Democrats in Virginia, Kaine and Webb, never put up vote totals in the neighborhood of what Bush received in 2000 or 2004. Here are the actual numbers:
2005 Gubernatorial Race: Kaine - 1,022,314
2006 Senatorial Race: Webb - 1,175,606
2000 Presidential: Bush - 1,437,490
2004 Presidential: Bush - 1,716,959
In other words, the Republicans can win in Virginia if they turn out their voters and turnout is high. Democrats usually win in Virginia in “off” years and even then they usually struggle to break 50%. Obama is toxic in the southern and western parts of the state where Webb, Kaine, and Warner were able to be competitive in their winning races. I expect it to be a close McCain victory.
we used to have a really liberal on social issues freeper from Fairfax county Virginia who posted here a lot.
she pointed the race finger at every opportunity and was pro-abortion too.
she ran off with the exodus last year (but may have snarked back)
wonder if she’s with Barry?
I feel sorry for VA having to put up with Fairfax chinny earnest libs and Richmond “urban” corruption....great state otherwise
Why do large states like VA and OH seem to drift left as the population increases? I’ve seen articles that suggest conservatives have more children than liberals. Children tend to grow up and reflect their parents’ politics. If the populations are growing due to the influx of leftists, why aren’t the states they move from drifting right?
Are any large states trending to the right?
Even Survey USA, who has McCain trailing Obama 49-47%, shows McCain doing well among Democrats (79-19%) and Independents (49-43%). Those are bad signs for Obama, in my opinion. IF McCain receives 20-25% support from Democrats and IF McCain also wins Independents by more than 5 points, Obama probably won’t win. Rasmussen has Obama’s unfavorable rating at 47% in Virginia. That’s another bad sign for him that almost half the voters view him at least somewhat unfavorably. Obama just doesn’t have the appeal in the rural, suburban, and exurban areas like Webb or Warner have.
Look to the future, though. It will make me sad indeed if VA moves into the Dem camp all because the swamps of DC emptied into Arlington.
Of course that could make Hispanics mad, that Richardson was passed over.
Davis is a RINO who is not running for re-election because RINOs like him are what has put the Virginia Republican brand in the trashcan. His wife was a RINO state senator who lost because she was seen as a big RINO out of touch with conservative values.
The Virginia Republican Party has no message and is run by some country club liberals who are out of touch with the overwhelming conservative majorities in Virginia (which includes a lot of Democrats).
Add in a considerable number of illegal alien voters (yeah, they do vote and have been actively recruited by Hispanic advocay groups - no one ever checks the documents) who vote in lockstep with the Democrats in Northern Virginia and you have a condition that makes liberal Democrat masquerading as conservatives (Warner, Kaine, Obama) viable.
Even that wouldn't be enough except that the Republicans put up an inept and back-stabbing candidate like MCCain who will cause a lot of conservatives to stay home or just vote down-ticket.
“However , Clinton might have won Virginia”
Exactly right. I am so glad that she is not the nominee. McCain actually has a good chance now.
I’ll never understand those fools who voted for her and those who supported her like Pat Buchanan and Joe Scarborough.
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