[zebrahead]

Virginia is one of three “must-win” states for McCain. The other two would be Colorado and Ohio. All three are going to be very, very close. The only other states that truly matter would be Florida, Nevada, and possibly New Mexico and New Hampshire. That’s the whole ballgame, in my opinion.

I give McCain a good chance to win Virginia for two reasons. First, it’s been reliably Republican in Presidential elections for quite some time and Bush carried it easily twice. Second, the two recent winning Democrats in Virginia, Kaine and Webb, never put up vote totals in the neighborhood of what Bush received in 2000 or 2004. Here are the actual numbers:

2005 Gubernatorial Race: Kaine - 1,022,314
2006 Senatorial Race: Webb - 1,175,606

2000 Presidential: Bush - 1,437,490
2004 Presidential: Bush - 1,716,959

In other words, the Republicans can win in Virginia if they turn out their voters and turnout is high. Democrats usually win in Virginia in “off” years and even then they usually struggle to break 50%. Obama is toxic in the southern and western parts of the state where Webb, Kaine, and Warner were able to be competitive in their winning races. I expect it to be a close McCain victory.

[Verginius Rufus]

Some people think Obama can carry Virginia if he puts a Virginian on the ticket, but the names usually mentioned are Kaine and Webb. Each of those men has shortcomings, so the obvious pick is the mayor of Richmond, a former governor of the state, born 1931--L. Douglas Wilder. Wilder would balance the ticket--one hard-left candidate (Obama) paired up with a typical liberal Democrat (Wilder).

Of course that could make Hispanics mad, that Richardson was passed over.