Posted on 08/08/2008 10:43:34 AM PDT by Jeff Head
Here are numerous pictures from various online Russian and Georgian news outlest of the conflict in Georgia where Russia has now intevened on the ground and in the air and invaded Georgia over the Ossetian Seperatists.
Russian tanks and vehicles moving toward and into Georgia
Russian aircraft attackintg Georgia positions
Georgian troops movingn toward the fighting
Burniing Georgian Armor
Georgian forces engaging seperatists
You’d want a bit more than one squadron. YOu’d want to surge in combat airpower inot Turkey and Iraq and use F-15C’s and F-22A’s as fighter air cover while F-15E’s, F-16’s and A-10’s blunt Russia’s ground offensive and support Georgia troops. We’d need a sizable force of warplanes as Russia would field a sizable air force to defend.
All that said, it’s highly unlikely we’d do this.
I think just putting planes in the air above Georgia would be enough. I don’t think the Russkies would even try to shoot a US plane down. Once the Roki Tunnel is closed, the Russians are cut off, and can be dealt with by attrition by the Georgians.
Thank you for the ping.
Excellent post by Jeff Head, helps explain the events.
What if the Russians just send their bombers in (no fighters) under the premise of (ahem) 'protecting' their soldiers, and do not bother with the USAF? Will the USAF attack the bombers? Do you think that president Bush would even order planes in the skies over Georgia?
Anyways, I think there is a lot of chest thumping going on here (on another thread someone was saying that the US should give suit-case nuclear weapons to Chechnya, apparently oblivious of the fact that the Chechen terrorists are Wahhabi muslims and actually part of Al Queda and would rather use those nukes on the US). There is a lot of musk juice flying around, when the fact remains that if the MOST we can do to PAKISTAN (its Northern Frontier province is a lawless land where a lot of Taliban and Al Queda are currently hiding) is try to sneak in a few missile attacks and then apologize, and now I am supposed to believe that the White House will send USAF CAP over Georgia against RUSSIA!
We cannot even deal with Pakistan and now we are to send A-10s and B-2 bombers against Russian armored columns?
I am not saying it is not possible, but I'd rate that probably just a hair's breadth higher than seeing pregnant sows flying. It is possible that the US may directly intervene, land troops, set up military bases etc etc. Anything is possible, but I would actually expect military assistance from Mars before that happened.
Actually this morning I went to a certain Pakistani forum that gives me the chuckles (if you think DU is funny you should have a look at it), and they were openly mocking the US there. I'd say the whole world is watching this, and while I do not think that Bush should do some of the things people are saying here (e.g. rubbish like suit-case nukes and ballistic missiles), he will have to do something. Otherwise it will have an impact in the coming years.
All it would need then is for Obama to be president, and then you will see that the Cold War never really died. All that happened is that Russia needed some time to restructure operations. Those who pray need to pray for wisdom and insight for Bush, because whether he knows it or not (he does) he is in what might be the greatest test of his presidential life (in some ways more than 9/11 if you look at the greater scope of things). Depending on how it is handled, this will either be remembered as a small conflict in the Caucus region that was quickly put out, as a major mess in the region that led to Russia replacing a sovereign Government with a puppet regime, or finally as the re-emergence of an antagonist super-power that is apparently immune to the West. Already people in Pakistan (based on that forum) consider the US to be absolutely toothless when it comes to fights against nuclear powers (one stated that the US only fights against weakling states like Grenada and Iraq), if you look at Iran they strongly believe that once they get nukes they will be immune (and even now, without nukes, they basically goad the US to no end), and North Korea has apparently fallen off the radar (at least they are currently having problems feeding themselves, so that should keep them occupied). The old adage of you are 'either with us or against us' has been largely forgotten.
Eyes are watching, from little caves and tents, to parliament buildings in Egypt and Syria, to Government offices in Indonesia and Iran, in the army barracks of the ISI in Pakistan, and beyond. The moment it appears that the US is only aggressive to 'little weak countries' then you can be sure that the next president will face a major test. Already it seems like Iran doesn't consider the West a threat (although they are very wrong ....just because they kidnapped British sailors doesn't mean that the West is hapless, and even if it was there is still the matter of Israel).
With all that said however, I will be very surprised if the US puts planes over Georgia to face off Russia, when we are always pu$$yfooting about doing something about Pakistan north frontier province.
Unless the US is more afraid of Pakistan than it is of Russia? Maybe that is it, in which case we should see the A-10s and B-2s flying to Russia now. Personally I expect to see little more than strong speeches on Fox and beautiful signatures on expensive pieces of paper.
Neville Chamberlain would feel very much at home today.
There are a lot of ways to come to Georgia’s aid that is short of going to war.
I did not write the sentence you referenced. I am a history buff and have read extensively on WWI. If you want to look at outlying causes to WWI you could go back to chancellor Bismark. After the Franco/Prussian war of 1871, he knew that France was itching for revenge. So he wanted to isolate France by making alliances with central European powers such as Austria Hungary and Italy. In response, France, UK and Russia made an alliance to counteract. It was these alliances that triggered the dominoes falling that led to WWI.
The fact of the matter is that the actual cause of WWI was Gavallilo Princip murdering Archduke Ferdinand and his wife that led to WWI. If this did not happen, there would be no WWI in August of 1914. Whether Ferdinand was disliked by King Josef or not has no bearing. No kingdom is going to sit back and allow the heir to their throne (especially when Josef was in his 80s) be murdered.
It’s true that Austria Hungary did have Germany’s backing to push their little war, but it was Austria Hungary’s unrealistic demands on Serbia (essentially making it a vassal state) that tipped the scales of war. In fact when Austria Hungary declared war on Serbia Kaiser Wilhelm was actually on vacation.
It’s funny, because the houses of Hohenzollerin, Hapsburgh, Romanov and Windsor are all interrelated and yet they all went to war with one another and three of those royal houses were destroyed because of it. The causes of WWI are many and varied, but the match that set the fire burning was undoubtedly the assanation of the heir to the house of Hapsburgh in Sarajevo.
North Ossetia has a rather large muslim population.
Chechens could be trying to make a connection there.
The USA just needs to stay out of other countries business or call the mexicans and begin to turn over the South West.
We had no business in Serbia and now we have loons wanting the USA get in this fight.
Thanks!
Interesting
But in this case, Georgia is a real ally of ours whose soldiers have stood shoulder to shoulder with us in Iraq fighting the Islamic Jihad. They also have assisted in and help manage a multi-billion dollar pipeline that is part of our national interest which delivers a million barrels a day of oil to the Black Sea, lessening our and the Eurpean nations dependency on Mid-East and russian oil.
The Russians, if they depose the Georgian government and install their own puppoett, would then defacto control that oil.
So, we do have interests there, and a loyal ally. We should do all we can at this point, short of direct military intervetnion, to help them. Fly their troops from Iraq back home on our aircraft (which we are doing). we should offload them with a ton of Javelin missiles an other equipment to help in their fight. We should provide whatever logistical, material, and intelligence data possible.
And we should make clear to Putin that this is exactly what we are going to do and that the cost to Russia to take Georgia will be astronimically high in terms of losses, and the cost to him personally-politically will be just as high, and the cost economically from the west will also be atrocious to him.
Then, we should get as many eastern European states (who will immediately align with us if we will lead) and other European states involved as well.
Standing back and watching it happen will only embolden Putin and we will see more of the same until the situation is unretrievable without direct military action...now, I believe we can make a big difference without that, but only if we act forcefull, forthrightyl, and quickly.
So you understand clearly, what I'm saying is your analysis above is completely 100% wrong -- both counter factual and counter intuitive.
Again, if you are serious about understanding the real causes of World War One, read the book linked above: "Europe's Last Summer." It references to all of the most recent research and facts uncovered about what really happen in the summer of 1914.
I've summarized it before: by 1914 the Germans were looking for an excuse -- any excuse -- to crank up their Schlieffen Plan for invading both France and Russia simultaneously. The reason is, the German leadership seriously believed, "it's now or never" -- if they waited too much longer, they would not be strong enough to defeat them both.
The assasination of Austria's archduke was the PERFECT excuse, and so the Germans pushed a VERY reluctant Austria into declaring war on Serbia.
Obviously, you are not going to believe just ME on this. That's why I suggest the book. Yes, it is not what we learned in school, but I think it's the truth.
This is one of the exact reason why WE must drill for independence here in the USA and leave the rest of the world to their own.
I totally disagree that we should be involved in this conflict.
I did not agree with Russia being in Cuba!!
The Georgians have been loyal allies, coming to our aid with as much as they possibly could, and proportionally more than almost anyone else. They now need our help and we should give it...along the lines of what I outlined above.
If you do not want to see Russian back in Cuba (which they are already talking about) then we need to head them off now. Otherwise Putin will be emboldened and it will be much more costly to stop later. History is a cruel teacher in this regard.
I agree we had no business in Kosovo. It should have stayed Serbian as far as I can tell. It is now a UN welfare state.
I don’t know about North Ossetia, but I have read in numerous areas that South Ossetia is full of Christians including the thugs that want to break off. There is no muslim connection that I can see.
300,000 Shiite Muslims were our allie in Southern Iraq and the USA walked off and left them to fend for themselves.
Saddam sent the butcher to give them his regards.
Lesson number one!! Don’t never believe the liars in Washington are your friends.
I read somewhere that North Ossetia is 30 percent muslim.
I say if South Ossetia is mostly Russian Speaking people and they want to be part of Russia then let them part of Russia!! This Kosovo thing that the first black president got un into is a real can of worms.
We can find our own oil and natural gas.
We just need a real leader and a real special interest group to tell Pelosi and her ilk to go to Hel* and be done with it.
And to pretend that we didn't play into their hands with our foreign policy ineptitude is complete nonsense. It seems stupidity at State is a problem shared by administrations of both parties. We all know the Russians are cowards/bullies, but if we were determined to play in their backyard, we should have had at least the good sense to acknowledge the realities of what life has/was in the Russian/Soviet sphere.
When you're the biggest fish in the pond, like it or not, you get to call the tune; Us in the New World, China and India in Asia, and Russia in Eastern Europe and Western Asia.
I made no such assertion.
What I said was that Kosovo may have been a embarrassment to the Russians, only because of their blatant attempt to insert themselves into something they should have avoided. This is not their real beef. They have a emotional and driven urge to become what they were during the cold war before they fragmented and have justified this with every possible excuse by design, and not reality.
Yes, bombing Serbia was a mistake, and I have said so many times in past arguments. Clintoon's foreign policy was driven by polls, and it still is. The populist notions ignored the reality and Serbia did over extend it's validations, so they became the boogie man.
If that is close enough to your take, then we have no argument. Other than Condi, and a few replaced diplomats the State department is still heavy with these populist bozo's, but the State Department's general direction has indeed improved over what was. Maddie Halfbright was a idiot.
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