Posted on 08/08/2008 9:57:39 AM PDT by Para-Ord.45
Politicians have a knack for citing statistics that support their positions. Those who are opposed to increasing domestic supplies of energy are especially adept at citing statistics that make it seem as though it is “not worth it.” Government reports, while not all wrong, can be rife with such statistics.
Recently, for example, some have pointed an Energy Information Administration (EIA) report that estimated the amount of oil we could produce on the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) if the drilling ban were lifted. EIA estimated this to be approximately 200,000 barrels per day. 1
Unfortunately, this figure – and the data it was based on – is fatally flawed. For example:
200,000 barrels per day is roughly equal to the daily production rate of just one new offshore platform in the Gulf of Mexico. The Thunder Horse oil production facility, which will be on line this year, is designed to produce 250,000 barrels per day. 2 The Atlantis oil platform currently producing in the Gulf of Mexico has a production capacity of 200,000 barrels per day. 3 Despite these facts, the EIA projects that lifting the bans that prevent production on 85 percent of the OCS acreage surrounding the lower 48 states will yield an amount equal to that which can be produced from just one of these platforms. Obviously, the projections are flawed.
The EIA assumed that technically recoverable undiscovered oil resources in off-limits areas of the OCS total 18.2 billion barrels, based on the Department of Interior’s Mineral Management Service’s Report to Congress (February 2006). 4 But technically recoverable resources are based on current technology and economics.
Historically, technological improvements and on-site exploration and development have increased technically recoverable resource estimates. For example, world proved oil reserves were estimated to be 521 billion barrels in 1971 when oil was $1.25 per barrel ($6.61 in 2007 dollars) and are estimated under present technology to be 1,317 billion barrels at an average price per barrel in 2007 of $67. 5
EIA’s analysis is based on crude oil prices averaging around $50 per barrel in 2005 dollars 6 (or around $80 per barrel in 2030 assuming a 2 percent per year inflation rate), well below the current price of around $120 per barrel.
EIA’s analysis assumes that exploration, development, and production of economical fields (drilling schedules, costs, platform selection, reserves-to-production ratios, etc.) in the OCS are based on data from fields in the western Gulf of Mexico that are of similar water depth and size. Since the majority of the resources under moratoria (55 percent) are off the coast of California, the analysis should have used data from the Santa Barbara Channel, which would have provided more realistic assumptions and higher production levels.
EIA’s analysis assumes that leasing would begin no sooner than 2012, and production would not be expected to start before 2017. Yet, off the coast of California, some of these resources have already been leased. A report from Wall Street research house Sanford C. Bernstein says that California actually could start producing new oil within one year if the moratoria were lifted. The California oil is under shallow water and already has been explored. Drilling platforms have been in place since before the moratorium. 7
Further, Department of Interior Secretary Kempthorne announced in July a new 5 year plan that will allow leasing to start 2 years earlier, in 2010, implying production from currently unleased areas could begin as early as 2015. This new 5 year plan includes the areas under Federal moratoria. 8
"off the coast of California, some of these resources have already been leased. A report from Wall Street research house Sanford C. Bernstein says that California actually could start producing new oil within one year if the moratoria were lifted."
The libscum also blame “speculators” for today’s high price - even going so far as to try to pass a law to curb “speculation” - but conveniently forget that those same speculators will push down the price of oil NOW if new production is scheduled to come on line even several years out.
Of course it’s a lie. If the moratorium on offshore drilling were lifted today, the first platforms could be in place in a few months and drilling within a year. Platform production would also ramp up quickly to meet new demand. I predict that in 2 years, there would be 10 times as much drilling and pumping from new wells as goes on now.
Good find.
They don’t forget anything. The ‘Rats in bed with the envirowhackos DO NOT WANT LOWER GAS PRICES. They WANT you to pay more because even if it is damaging the economy, they believe that they are “saving the world” from globull warming or globull cooling or whatever the latest whacko theory is.
I work on an oilfield suppy ship. It takes six weeks start to finish to drill a well. Takes two weeks to install a platform. A week or two to tie in a pipeline. We lay pipeline in 8 mile sections. Float em in to place and then sink em. You can sevice many wells from a single large platform. Right now we are drilling for gas in shallow water.
Good point. I sit corrected...
eh.. not so much lying as citing partial truths disguised as facts.
200,000 barrel/ day is absolutely true.. they just aren’t mentioning that that figure is PER PLATFORM.
especially when you look at our population growth during the same period of time
bump
And,,, aren’t state and fed taxes on gas done on a percentage basis? So,,, the more gas costs, the more the feds get.
Classic Lie by Omission.
“Politicians have a knack for citing statistics that support their positions.” Really?
48.65% of all stats are false.
Congress must not only mandate the sale of leases but they must also mandate the right of the lease holder to produce (drill for production of oil or gas)!
Just look at the 2.6 - 3 trillion cu.ft. of dry natural gas under the Destin Dome where production has been denied. Chevron held the lease for years and years. They did extensive siesmic exploration and even test wells. But when Chevron applied for permits to drill and start production the Gov. refused the permits. Chevron sued the Gov. (twice I think) but failed. Eventually the Gov. bought back the leases for $113 million.
The EnviroWacos stirred up the Fla. locals with the fears of giant oil spills. BUT WAIT! This is a couple of trillion cu. ft. of Dry Natural Gas not that evil yucky oil!!!
It is 25 or so miles off shore. Plans were to lay pipe lines on the bottom to Mobil Ala. where the gas would be cleaned up in existing gas scrubbing plants and then push it right into the contries existing natural gas pipelines! Fast Easy Access(water depths less than 200 ft.)
Correction. They want you to pay more IN ORDER TO RUIN THE ECONOMY. Democrats need people to be miserable, feel cheated, envious of achievers, etc in order to get/maintain a voting base.
No, fuel taxes are paid on a flat rate per gallon.
GAS TAX by state http://www.api.org/policy/tax/stateexcise/index.cfm
You are correct. Not fellin’ so hot today! It’s this cold weather here in Ohio, caused by global warming no doubt! Woke up shivering! It musta put a freeze on my brain, cuz I know that!
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