">" ALT="some text" WIDTH=32 HEIGHT=32> Wheres the Jaun McCain version of this?
Posted on 08/04/2008 5:38:06 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Up until now, I have been urging caution in (over)interpreting the results of the Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls, which had shown the presidential race tightening to a near-tie in recent days. Although the tracking numbers are important sources of information, this trend had not really been reflected in much of the state polling, nor in other, one-off national polls.
Today, however, we have a set of state polling out that does indicate some tightening in the race: (Table at link)
The most interesting results are in Florida and Massachusetts. In Florida, SurveyUSA shows John McCain ahead by 6 points. The only other time it had polled Florida, back in late February, McCain had been ahead by 2. This result is driven in part by SurveyUSA's party identification figures; SurveyUSA does not adjust its results for partisan ID, and they drew a sample that gives the Republicans a 43-38 edge in party affiliation. The conventional wisdom is that party affiliation in Florida should be about evenly divided or somewhat tilted to the Democrats; nevertheless, there may be some softening in the Democrats' party ID edge nationwide, perhaps because of the improved situation on the ground in Iraq.
The Massachusetts poll from Suffolk is interesting mostly for the trendline; Obama leads by 9 points now after having led by 23 points in June. He experienced a particular decline among men: perhaps McCain's 'Celebrity' advertising campaign, which among other things sought to emasculate Obama, has had more resonance with men than with women.
Apart from the state polls, there are now a couple of national polls that show McCain with a slight lead. One is the Rasmussen national tracker, which has McCain ahead 47-46, and the other is a new telephone survey from Zogby, which has McCain up 42-41.
Throwing everything together, we still see Obama with a national lead of about 2 points, but polling over the past 72 hours has indicated an even tighter race. Obama faces a decision about whether to try and get out in front of the news cycle and create some drama of his own -- perhaps with a VP selection or some aggressive lines of attack against John McCain -- or to let the cycle play out organically, hoping that McCain's negative advertising will begin to backfire on him.
It's not McCain's "negative advetising" that's doing this. This is the fallout from that idiotic world tour.
McCain will win Florida and Ohio, as well as Colorado and Virginia. The real state to watch for, mark my words, is Indiana.
If Both candidates take all of the expected states, (McCain taking Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Missouri, South Carolina, Nevada, Montana, and even giving him New Mexico, and Obama takes Pennsylvania, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Oregon, and New Jersey) then all it would take was Obama flipping Indiana for a 270-to-268 win.
If Obama picks Evan Bayh, then this could be within reach. Right now, Indiana is a dead heat, and Bayh, who is immensely popular there as both a senator and former governor, could help deliver it. Also expect Gary, IN mayor Rudy Clay to stay up late on election night stuffing ballot boxes Chicago-style for Obama like he did during the Indiana primary.
Evan Bayh was the foremost supporter of the Iraq war still remaining in the Democrat party (since Joe Lieberman was kicked out). The big three leading the charge for war in the Senate were Bayh, Lieberman, and John McCain.
Some may think that given Obama’s strong opposition to Iraq which he initially built his campaign on this rules Bayh out. But this is barack Obama we’re talking about, so in reality, it makes Bayh ever more likely. The media would declare such a pick to be “shrewed” and “brilliant”, that it “softens his stance on Iraq,” allowing him to claim both sides of the Iraq debate as he has done on so many other issues.
Bayh, who is young, handsome, and as moderate a Democrat you will find, would help boost Obama’s appeal to independents, blue-collar midwesterners, and white women, whom together make up the bulk of Obama’s problem areas as a Democrat.
If Obama picks Bayh, McCain may likely have to not only hold all of the traditional red states, but he would also have to take a blue state, with his best bet being Michigan, Pennsylvania, or New Hampshire. I believe Iowa will be hopelessly out of reach for McCain this election.
LOL!
I've been harping on this for some time now. I hate to wish my life away but will be glad when dem convention is over and Hillary is gone.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2053832/posts
Obama Unveils New Energy Policy (utterly useless)
Wednesday, July 30, 2008 4:03:36 PM
· 25 of 33
Crawdad to RealTeen
We should all start wearing tire gauges in our shirt pockets.
Evan Bayh will be named Presumptive VP on Wednesday. Obama is scheduled to be with him in Elkhart, no events planned for pm, but reporters being told, "you'll want to be there" by Obama campaign.
The best thing Obama could do now is shut up, build a fort of the cushions from the couch in his campaign headquarters, and hide there until November.
hmmmm.....
The second male departed.
The first male asked the female about the other male. At this point, I realized they were all in law school. The two I heard speak were intellectually handicapped judging by their speech patterns She said the word "Like" about 100 times in less than 15 minutes, and that isn't the slightest exaggeration, and "cool" a few times. His speech wasn't much better.
In describing the departed male, she said "He isn't the typical lawyer. He is cool." Followed by "He is a liberal so he is cool." I am surprised she didn't say "Like wow, cool."
The guy said "Is he supporting Obama?" She said "Anyone who knows me is supporting Obama."
How open-minded of her.
Then she said "If you go to an Obama fund-raiser, use my name. Everyone knows me."
The guy said "A lot of lawyers I know are worried that if Obama wins then they won't have any business because they are so used to corruption!!!!!!!!!!!!"
UGH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! The naivete of youth.
At that point, I escaped.
No, no, you were right the first time! Every time Obama goes on the offense, he loses more support. We want him to keep attacking!
">" ALT="some text" WIDTH=32 HEIGHT=32> Wheres the Jaun McCain version of this?
I can’t see the Hoosier state going for Obambi even with Bayh on the ticket. He would definitely make it very close, however.
No, no, you were right the first time! Every time Obama goes on the offense, he loses more support. We want him to keep attacking!
McCain should keep at it. Go for the throat. The tire pressure guage was ingenious! Is there a commerial about it yet? It could be done like an infomercial about Obama’s energy policy, play the tape then sell the tire guage!
Visit McCain’s website
For a $25.00 donation, you can get an official “obama pressure gage” and it even say obama energy plan on it
I dont think he finished with obama yet
As Rush has been saying all along, the Democrats are invested in defeat. Scumbag traitors that they are.
I think McCain is irrelevant a this point the race is Obama vs. Obama and right now Obama is losing. What we are seeing is the same thing that happened to Obama late in the race with Hillary, normal people are getting tired of this guy.
Only 22 days until the Dem Convention, after that, the massive Obama collapse may begin. :-)
Thanks for the heads up, PhiKapMom. I went there and did just that. I will carry my Obama Energy Plan tire gauge proudly!!
LOL! Who would think the McCain campaign would be killing the Obama campaign with innovative things like this?
In the replays of part of his 'big energy speech' today, you could see clearly his device of pausing, regally putting his nose in the air, and allowing the worship of his followers to waft over him. Meanwhile he's saying NOTHING, absolutely nothing, that's concrete, except 'I'll throw a thousand dollars at you, you poor pitiful people.'
I don't think I'm the only one who think his policies stink, but it's his haughty demeanor and royal pronouncements, along with playing the victim card, that are going to do him in.
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