Obama will not carry Pennsylvania. That’s a pantload.
I hope Obama doesn’t carry Pennsylvania, but a conservative assessment of the election says he will.
I am premising the scenario on recent election trends and conventional wisdom. The purpose here is to look at the race as sober as possible, without making any excited utterances that reflect more my own hopes than any solid empirical evidence.
And if the election breaks down in the least exciting, least surprising way possible, then it will go to McCain, by a hair. But if one red state worth at least 11 electoral votes flips, then Obama will win, so long as he carries either New Mexico or New Hampshire.
I am submitting that if this is to happen, that state will be Indiana, not Virginia, Florida, or Ohio, and the selection of Evan Bayh as Obama’s running mate will play a major role in it. This is something campaign McCain should be most concerned with and developing a strategy against.
The only reason the Dems have won Pennsy in the last few cycles is because Clinton/Gore/Kerry won Delaware, Montgomery, and Bucks counties, three counties won by GHWBush in ‘88. Although there has been an increase in the black population in said counties, even the most braindead soccer mom will vote McCain in the booth. Philly has a long history of racial tension and white flight that cannot be forgotten.