Gulf Coast - Medium probability of tropical cyclone formation within 48 hours

National Hurricane Center ^ | August 3, 2008 | FORECASTER PASCH

[HAL9000]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN THE AREA...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL INVESTIGATE THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

2. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS POORLY-ORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...SO THE CHANCES OF THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ARE DECREASING. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

3. A SMALL AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$ FORECASTER PASCH

[TheThinker]

There goes the gas prices. Gas inventories are really low.

[kms61]

local tv weather says it’ll likely stay in the Gulf and drift west.

[corkoman]

Cyclone? Cyclone? Will it become a Typhoon? Dopes.

[G.Mason]

" ... A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ... "

Whoa!

Now that's a rare occurrence in the summer in the Gulf of Mexico.

The "tropical cyclone" bit adds a nice touch to the faux drama also.

[eastforker]

25 years ago this month Alicia formed almost identical to this one. We shall wait and see.

[Disgusted in Texas]

Hoping it will stay away from Texas!

[G.Mason]

"We" shall wait and see if this ...

A) Becomes a tropical depression

B) Which way it is moving, if it becomes a tropical depression

C)Then ... if it becomes a hurricane, (cyclone, if you prefer) and is heading for me, I will batten the hatches.

[eastforker]

Prety sure this is gonna be a Texas rainmaker.Sometimes a tropical storm can do as much damage as a hurricane, like Alison. When Alicia formed in the gulf it was down played as almost insignificant until about the 36-48 hours before it hit when it came ashore as a cat 3 and stalled on the Galveston beach. Since then I do not take anything for granted

[G.Mason]

" ... Since then I do not take anything for granted ..."

I'm with you on that, eastforker.

Since the 2004 blitz (Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne) I am a bit edgy when it comes to hurricanes.

In fact we just felled the last five trees, that never recovered from those storms, several weeks ago.

We also have installed a full service, automatic generator system that powers the entire home. The hand crank, 4500 watt generator didn't cut the mustard.

We need the rain to replenish our lakes, streams, and swamps, but 100 + knot winds scare the heck out of me.

[Jedidah]

There are parched parts of Texas that would welcome the rain and relief from the heat.

[bikerman]

It must be Global warming or cooling no its Bushes fault my GOD we are all DOOMED, Yawn.

[TypeZoNegative]

A tropical cyclone is a generic term for any low pressure cyclonic storm where the low pressure in the storm is related to heat rather than temperature differences.

[Caramelgal]

Sometimes a tropical storm can do as much damage as a hurricane, like Alison

I remember as a kid when then tropical storm Agnes came through Baltimore. It dumped prestigious amount of rain in the area and to our north through the Susquehanna river basin causing record flooding.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/history.shtml#agnes

Agnes was barely a hurricane at landfall in Florida, and the effects of winds and storm surges were relatively minor. The major impact was over the northeastern United States, where Agnes combined with the non-tropical low to produce widespread rains of 6 to 12 inches with local amounts of 14 to 19 inches. These rains produced widespread severe flooding from Virginia northward to New York, with other flooding occurring over the western portions of the Carolinas.

[Arrowhead1952]

Hoping it will stay away from Texas!

I don't know what part of Texas you are in, but we could really use some rain and cooler weather in Central Texas. It may get to 107º here in Austin today.

[Rightly Biased]

We need the rain here in Seguin I for one would welcome some relief.