I guess she really IS Obama's economic advisor.
Posted on 08/01/2008 8:45:18 AM PDT by Sub-Driver
Economic models predict clear Obama win in November Fri Aug 1, 2008 11:34am EDT
By Alister Bull
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - It really is the economy, stupid!
Economic models that have correctly predicted the winner of almost all post-war U.S. presidential elections say recession fears will secure a victory for Barack Obama in November.
Three separate studies showed the Democratic presidential hopeful winning between 52 and 55 percent of the popular vote on November 4, based on current gloomy economic estimates.
Any further darkening in the economic outlook -- many analysts think things will get worse between now and November -- would reinforce that election outcome.
"The economy is certainly not going to be a positive for the Republicans," said Ray Fair, an economics professor at Yale university who built the earliest of the models in 1978.
(Excerpt) Read more at reuters.com ...
If I recall correctly, this model always predicts Democrats will win.
They report, they decide.
Well, its all over then...guess I don’t have to vote now.
Oh, in that case, we don’t need an election, we have a “study”.
See you in November!
Its the Reuters wish list again.
I guess she really IS Obama's economic advisor.
There, more better.
Reverse the results of this prediction.
I recall that the economic model most heavily pushed by the media in 2000 predicted a landslide of historic proportions for Al Gore.
>> Economic models that have correctly predicted the winner of almost all post-war U.S. presidential elections. <<
It’s only gotten one presidential election wrong since the start of the last war (2003).
There are no models to predict this election cycle. NONE!
I don’t think they always predict Democrat wins, but I remember several of them predicted Gore and Kerry to be victorious.
They said they were right 12 out of 14 times so I guess they’re starting in 1920.
Didn’t say who the two wrong ones were.
And look at THIS model: The third work is a “Bread and Peace” model devised by Douglas Hibbs, a retired economics professor from the University of Goteborg in Sweden...
Should I be a bit cynical here? ;-)
Oh, in that case, we don’t need an election, we have a “study”.................which is just as good as a “consensus” is to algore............
The model doesn’t account for all of Obama’s negatives: his race, his history, his friends, his ideology, and many more.
I think this is something that everyone (well, all political junkies) have been predicting for at least the last year, and my question is -- all things considered, why is Obama doing relatively poorly in the polls? Have, as some pundits suggested, the Democrats nominated almost the only candidate who could lose in November?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.