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Posted on 07/24/2008 6:41:38 AM PDT by nwrep
Florida: Obama + 2
Minnesota: Obama + 13
Colorado: Obama +3
This is beginning to worry me.
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
But most Americans of both parties are moderates. When Obama falls it will be the hardhat democrats who defeat him.
The next time I see Kerry, I’m going to shake his hand and say:
“Let me be the last person to call you ‘Mr. President’!”
The more I think about McCain doing attack ads, the more I think that this is what Obama is trying to goad him into, so they can raise McCain's "unstable" negatives and lower the distance of "riskiness" between them.
On top of all this, McCain is running one of the worst campaigns in American history.
Why post these useless polls?
When you look in side the Rasmussen polls and in fact all the media sponsored polls one thing becomes clear. They are surveying 39 percent Democrats, 27 percent Republicans, and 34 percent independents.
In his nation wide poll Rasmussen says that 88 percent of Republicans are for McCain while only 74 percent of Democrats are for Obama. Rasmussen also says McCain has a 9 point lead among independents over Obama. When you add in leaners McCain has a 23 percent lead over Obama in independents. And Obama has 77 percent of Democrats and McCain has 91 percent of Republicans.
Rasmussen also says nationally the race is a virtual tie with Obama having a slight lead. For that to be true 74 percent of Democrats has to be a larger number than 88 percent of Republicans plus 9 percent of independents.
HOW COULD McCain have 14 percent more support from his base than Obama does from his base and Obama be winning. If you add to that McCain has 9 percent more support among Independents than Obama, there is no way that Obama is in the lead nationally. But Rasmussen says he is.
Anyone who believes that thinks Obama won California just like Rasmussen said he would. The problem with that is when they counted the votes Hillary won California by 9 points.
The elections of 2000 and 2004 had the number of Democrat voters and Republican voters equal. And the number of independent voters were also equally split. That is why 400 votes in Florida determined the winner between Gore and Bush. And why 60 thousand votes in Ohio determined the winner between Bush and Kerry.
Rasmussen has to believe one of two things. That 5 percent of the voters that were Republicans have switched to the Democratic party to vote for Obama and 2 percent of Republicans have switched to be Independents to vote for McCain and 7 percent of independents that voted for Kerry are going to vote for MCcain... but Obama is going to win. The other option is that the Republican party has lost 1/3 of its members and none of them are going to vote for either candidate.
What we do know is that many Republicans are not McCain fans, but that they fear Obama far more than they dislike McCain.
This in many respects reminds me of 1948. The media was so certain that the New Yorker with the Hitler mustache was going to win ... they Broadcast and Printed nothing else.
But McCain does not face a large faction of his party walking out of the party convention to form a third party to defeat him as Truman did in 1948.
But a majority of Voters did not like Thomas Dewey and would not vote for him. There is a far larger number of voters that do not like Obama and will not vote for him. About 20 percent of those voters are Democrats. In 2000 there was a lot of talk about Republicans deserting the party to vote for Pat Buchanan and the Libertarian candidate. If you go back and look at FR from that period you would have sworn that Buchanan was going to get 20 percent of the vote on election day. Pat and the Libertarian combined did not get 3/4 of one percent of the vote.
We have polls showing that 65 percent of the voters said that Obama’s trip to the middle east did not make him more prepared to be president. Then they produce a major bump in the polls for Obama. That poll says that Repubicans and Independents think Obama was not helped by the trip and that Democrats think he was... WHOOOPEE!!
It seems to me that every white working class Democrat who can walk or crawl to the polls will vote for McCain. They are scared of Affirmative action under Obama. I think well over 90 percent of Republicans will vote for McCain and that 60 percent of independents will vote for McCain.
But one thing I do know is true. The girls get prettier at closing time and the polls get more accurate at voting time.
But this year they are less accurate at voting time than they were in past years. When they count the votes Obama does not do as well as the polls had predicted. And that is a very good sign for McCain.
I would remind you that in 1980 at this time of the year Carter had a 30 point lead over Reagan. At this time in 1972 McGovern has a 17 point lead over Nixon. Duckakis had a 17 point lead over Bush 41.
Seven out of the last 10 presidential races the leader in the polls in July lost the election. If you were playing the odds would you prefer your candidate to be ahead or behind in July?
Let not your heart be troubled
Obama will keep shooting himself in the foot
Keep the faith and keep working to keep this buffoon out of the White House
Last week I got a call from an unidentified polling firm. First, they had to determine if I fit the demo they were after. They asked DOB and if I was refistered. Then, they said “Have a nice day.”
So, registered seniors were not needed. Considering it was an early afternoon poll, I have no idea who they thought they would get.
refistered=registered
Sounds like alot of money has changed hands.
“For crying out loud, they haven’t even debated yet”
What makes you so sure there are even going to BE “debates” this year?
It’s well known that Obama begins to flounder without his teleprompter or a prepared text.
If he’s leading in the polls, and Obamamania is sweeping the nation, why bother with the formality of debates? He’s the presumptive president after all, right?
More seriously, Obama may put forward a set of “preconditions” for the debates that McCain won’t agree to, and then use that impasse as an excuse to decline from debating.
And the sycophant press will back him up. Their rationale will be that nowhere is it written in stone that there must be debates, and that the country got along just fine without them in earlier times.
At this point, I’d reckon debates are 50-50, at best this campaign season.
- John
accoring to Quinnipiac McCain has closed the gap and is a statistical dead heat in Minnesota, Michigan and closing in on Colorado....
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2050555/posts
Ummm, polls showed McCain leading in Colorado by two... and he’s like 7 or 8 up over Obama in Florida.
As for Colorado and Minnesota, I think this actually represents positive movement for McCain.
If you watch closely, the smart RATs like Sabato and Judis are the ones worrying right now. Still a lot of time to go in this one, but McCain is in a pretty good spot IMHO.
No, in the 2004 daily tracking, Rasmussen never had Kerry ahead by more than 2.8 points. Bush and Kerry traded a small lead back and forth the entire election season. In the end, he called the race correctly, and by less than half a point for both candidates.
Don't know how the voters will react to that scenario though.
That's like not testifying in your own defense at a criminal trial. The jury wants to know what you're hiding.
In this case, however, anyone with a IQ over 12 knows the Obamalamadingdong is a done nothing, empty suit. Perfect for the back room Democrat Party boys, but a nightmare for Americans.
It's too bad ignorance isn't painful.
Read Rasmussen’s polling on party identification and you will have your answer. Short answer—the Pubbies brand is in the dumper.
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