Obama opens up leads in Florida, Colorado, and Minnesota (Rasmussen)

Rasmussen Reports ^ | July 23, 2008 | nwrep

[nwrep]

Florida: Obama + 2

Minnesota: Obama + 13

Colorado: Obama +3

This is beginning to worry me.

[chimera]

MN is a lost cost. Write it off now, ‘Pubs. Spend big bucks in the must-win states like OH, CO, FL, and VA. Don't chase rainbows like MI and NJ (the perennial heartbreaker). We can win it if we hold everything we had in 2000. We'll need to keep either NH (from 2000) or NM or IA (from 2004) to do it. In politics, a close win is still a win and you take it to the bank. The ‘Rats know this. We need to view this election like the war it is and pick our battles carefully.

[VOR78]

Their last poll had him up 7 or 8 in Florida.

Given that the Colorado and Minnesota results are par for the course and that the national polls have tightened, I think that Florida result is probably inaccurate.

[jennyjenny]

Honestly, with all the positive press the big O is getting he should be up by double digits across the board. The fact that it is this close gives me hope.

[Minn. 4 Bush]

I highly doubt Obama will win Florida. Republican’s are highly organized in Florida. I think Colorado will be tight and doubt McCain can win Minnesota - with or without Pawlenty.

Don’t meltdown yet. Gerald Ford was down 33 points the summer before the election and lost by 2.

Are you worriers doing anything to help get McCain elected?

[TNCMAXQ]

It is hard to believe the numbers can shift so much. McCain generally has had a small lead in Florida. If he is doing so well in Ohio it is hard to believe he will lose FL.

Rasmussen hasn’t always been right on state polls. I think you are right about Mason-Dixon being more accurate. Rasmussen was lucky that he called the national vote correctly in 2004. But on a statewide level their numbers are not quite as good.

I am not being overly optimistic either. Obviously these numbers are not great. It would be far better to see McCain ahead in FL. But things can still change dramatically. If Obama is ahead ONLY by 3 in CO then that probably is good news. MN hasn’t gone Republican since 1972 so I think this is no surprise.

[Notasoccermom]

Remember election day 2004? We heard all day that Bush was behind. However, the media is more organized on working for their candidate in 2008 and I think we should be worried...very worried. Is it too late to nominate a different GOP?

[moose2004]

The FLA, MN and CO polls are one day snapshots with 4.5% margins of error. They are most definitely not Rasmussen’s 3 day rolling average polls with 2% margins of error (like his daily tracking poll). Don’t worry, taken together I actually think those one day numbers for FLA and CO aren’t bad (this includes the favorables), especially CO.

[LachlanMinnesota]

Minnesota can’t be a surprise - what is surprising is that it is only 2 points.

[RoseofTexas]

Well, so much for the backlash! :(

[ncalburt]

I agree . The data is not making sense unless he changed his formulas or voting population mix . There is a compatibility issue here for FL . Be prepared ,just wait for the sea of wild push polling data that will be cooked up the Obama media this week. The Obama media needs to STOP the story line that the OBama Summer intern trip had no polling bump so they will have to cook up polls showing one.

[KC_Conspirator]

Thanks for the info.

[TeleStraightShooter]

wow, is that it? BHO's MSM sycophants are ignoring his fatal flaws, so there is a lot soft support out there for JSM to exploit.

Most voters still don't realize BHO supported {$50k} and attended a "church" that preached racial supremacy for 20 years.

[sticker]

At this time in 2004 didn't the “polls” already have john freaking kerry in the oval office?

[Non-Sequitur]

Nothing surprising here. Florida and Colorado are within the margin of error so there is no reason to begin writing them off. McCain wasn’t going to carry Minnesota anyway.

[Froggie]

You are so right...just ask former President Dukakis what poll leads this early in the campaign mean!

[SueRae]

Selective polling at best. Leading in Florida? Where did they poll, Miami?

[ncalburt]

Your right about his state polling data , its usually not very good. Its hard to poll in FL in the summer time , half the residents leave in May-June for the north or mountains until the end of August or the fall. But we will see. Like I said the only polling group that nails FL every time is Mason- Dixon , the other polling groups seems to collect data based on S Fl voters.

[JZelle]

LOL. I wonder how Dukakis and Kerry were doing around this time during their campaigns?

[Minn. 4 Bush]

BHO over polled in the primaries. I would certainly believe that some of this is happening now.

[pnh102]

Spend big bucks in the must-win states like OH, CO, FL, and VA. Don't chase rainbows like MI and NJ (the perennial heartbreaker).

I agree 100%. If McCain wants to win he has to focus on the same states that went red in 2004. There's no need to waste one dime campaigning in blue states at all. Even if Obama wins every 2004 blue state by an 80-20 margin, he's still a loser.