[Momaw Nadon]

Intrade.com is a futures market in which people bet on the outcomes of various things such as the results of elections.

According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2008 Presidential Election.

If the traders are correct, John McCain would receive 245 Electoral Votes and Barack Obama would receive 293 Electoral Votes.

If the weighted probabilities of John McCain winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then John McCain should get 248.42 Electoral Votes.

270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.

Opinions and commentary are welcome.

[Momaw Nadon]

Previous projections:

2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/9/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/2/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/26/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/19/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/12/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/5/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/7/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/31/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/24/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/17/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/10/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/3/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/25/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/18/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/11/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/4/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/7/2008

[Momaw Nadon]

[Momaw Nadon]

If you want on (or off) of the weekly InTrade Projected Presidential Electoral Vote ping list, please let me know via FREEPmail.

[1rudeboy]

I suspect McCain will get crushed. The only bright side I can see is, due to his age, he won’t run for President again.

[KansasGirl]

That looks like an Obama best case scenario. I don’t see him winning OH or PA.

[COgamer]

Unfortunately, I don’t think Obama’s beatable unless more controversy surfaces, and maybe not even then. Clinton, on the other hand, was beatable for many reasons. But the dems weren’t voting based on that, but on moon-eyed fanaticism. Our country is facing frightening times.

[TonyM]

Prepare for another “Carter” administration. This is going to be painful folks. It seems like every generation has to learn the lesson of just how stupid they can be and elect an idiot. Like someone said at least McCain won’t likely be around in 2012 to run. At least we can blame the mess, and there will be a big one, is all the Dems fault and hopefully wake America up to the folly of electing a President based on skin color.

[TheRedSoxWinThePennant]

I dont see obama winning colorado or michigan. He may show strongly in these states but he only won caucus states

[SERKIT]

Imagine Barry as Prez, Joe "The Plagiarist" Biden as Veep, John "F'n" Kerry as Sec of State, and Jamie "The Wall" Gorleick as either AG or head of CIA....

After you get done puking, hold your nose and pull the handle for John McCain.

That was easy!

[Political Junkie Too]

Using the probabilities above, the results of 20,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The "GOP Electoral Votes" is the expected value (probability weighted average). The "Probability of 270" is the point on the cumulative probability distribution for 270 electoral votes or higher.

Week	GOP Electoral Votes	Probability of 270
7-Jan	241.05	20.18%
14-Jan	235.29	14.70%
21-Jan	234.76	14.66%
28-Jan	236.58	15.44%
4-Feb	236.26	15.41%
11-Feb	237.25	16.43%
18-Feb	230.61	12.69%
25-Feb	233.56	15.44%
3-Mar	234.54	16.27%
10-Mar	240.26	22.49%
17-Mar	244.58	24.60%
24-Mar	249.73	28.50%
31-Mar	252.18	30.87%
7-Apr	248.97	27.60%
14-Apr	249.24	27.62%
21-Apr	247.86	25.60%
28-Apr	251.65	29.06%
5-May	250.84	28.07%
12-May	252.31	29.25%
19-May	248.73	25.99%
26-May	250.15	27.10%
2-Jun	248.98	26.46%
9-Jun	247.87	26.81%
16-Jun	248.41	26.06%

-PJ

[fhayek]

Who cares. I have decided I am not going to get bent out of shape over this one. McCain is not going to be that much better than Obama. In fact, McCain might get more socialism through. Socialism-lite and all. Flame away if you must, but, you know I’m right.

[SSS Two]

If McCain wins the "Fulcrum State" and all states with a higher likelihood than the Fulcrum State, then McCain will win at least 270 e.v.'s.

Fulcrum State analysis implicitly believes that any McCain improvement among the states is highly correlated, a proposition I believe to be true.

By this measure, Sen. McCain is in the worst position since early March. Perhaps there has been some sort of modest Obama bounce after clinching the nomination.

Date	Fulcrum State	Percentage
June 16, 2008	New Mexico	36.5
June 9, 2008	New Mexico	38.0
June 2, 2008	Colorado	37.6
May 26, 2008	New Mexico	37.6
May 19, 2008	Colorado	37.5
May 12, 2008	New Hampshire	41.0
May 5, 2008	Ohio	36.8
April 28, 2008	Ohio	38.1
April 21, 2008	Ohio	38.5
April 14, 2008	Ohio	39.5
April 7, 2008	Ohio	38.3
March 31, 2008	Ohio	37.3
March 24, 2008	Michigan	39.0
March 17, 2008	Ohio	39.0
March 10, 2008	Ohio	39.0
March 3, 2008	New Hampshire	29.5
February 25, 2008	New Hampshire	30.8
February 18, 2008	Ohio	28.0
February 11, 2008	New Hampshire	29.5
February 4, 2008	Ohio	28.5
January 28, 2008	New Hampshire	27.5
January 21, 2008	Ohio	27.5
January 14, 2008	Ohio	27.5
January 7, 2008	Maine	29.5