2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/16/2008

InTrade ^ | Monday, June 16, 2008 | Momaw Nadon

[Sunnyflorida]

“McCain needs Romney on the ticket to get MI into the win column.”

I like Mitt a lot also but I heard some pundit to day say that the polling data for Mitt is terrible.

The only way McCain can lock this up is if he picks Hillary before Obama does.

[TheRedSoxWinThePennant]

I dont see obama winning colorado or michigan. He may show strongly in these states but he only won caucus states

[oust the louse]

“I’d make McCain a slight favorite right now. He’s ahead in Ohio, Michigan, and Florida, and competitive in Pennsylvania.”

He will win these states and win the election. I have said this before and I’ll say it again... The American people will not want this arrogant maniac empty suit and his most annoying ungrateful snotty wife in the White House.
The more undecided voters see of these two during the convention, the more McCain will look like a Heroe.

[PurpleMan]

So who is the standard bearer? Reagan lost to Ford but then came back and took over. THe same for Romney? Maybe Jidahl? Any bright lights out there?

[Ingtar]

McCain needs Romney on the ticket to get MI into the win column.

... and lose much of the South?

[SERKIT]

Imagine Barry as Prez, Joe "The Plagiarist" Biden as Veep, John "F'n" Kerry as Sec of State, and Jamie "The Wall" Gorleick as either AG or head of CIA....

After you get done puking, hold your nose and pull the handle for John McCain.

That was easy!

[1rudeboy]

Personally, I don’t see Romney as the demon some made him out to be. Thompson was offered the job and declined. The smart ones (if any) are lying-low.

[PA Engineer]

That looks like an Obama best case scenario. I don’t see him winning OH or PA.

Neither do I.

[PurpleMan]

“The smart ones (if any) are lying-low.”

You’re probably correct. Which one will have “it” and the fire in the belly?

[devere]

“Then what would the Dems in the House do?”

They would elect Obama, of course.

[richmwill]

“I have said this before and I’ll say it again... The American people will not want this arrogant maniac empty suit and his most annoying ungrateful snotty wife in the White House.”

I’d have said the exact same thing in the summer of 1992...

[Big E]

“I suspect McCain will get crushed.”

Yeah, it’s starting to look that way. Obama has never been weaker than he is right now, and he’s still winning. Once the media starts in on McCain, he’ll lose 10 points in the polls. Unless McCain finds some video of Obama killing puppies or something, it’ll be a landslide.

[Political Junkie Too]

Using the probabilities above, the results of 20,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The "GOP Electoral Votes" is the expected value (probability weighted average). The "Probability of 270" is the point on the cumulative probability distribution for 270 electoral votes or higher.

Week	GOP Electoral Votes	Probability of 270
7-Jan	241.05	20.18%
14-Jan	235.29	14.70%
21-Jan	234.76	14.66%
28-Jan	236.58	15.44%
4-Feb	236.26	15.41%
11-Feb	237.25	16.43%
18-Feb	230.61	12.69%
25-Feb	233.56	15.44%
3-Mar	234.54	16.27%
10-Mar	240.26	22.49%
17-Mar	244.58	24.60%
24-Mar	249.73	28.50%
31-Mar	252.18	30.87%
7-Apr	248.97	27.60%
14-Apr	249.24	27.62%
21-Apr	247.86	25.60%
28-Apr	251.65	29.06%
5-May	250.84	28.07%
12-May	252.31	29.25%
19-May	248.73	25.99%
26-May	250.15	27.10%
2-Jun	248.98	26.46%
9-Jun	247.87	26.81%
16-Jun	248.41	26.06%

-PJ

[fhayek]

Who cares. I have decided I am not going to get bent out of shape over this one. McCain is not going to be that much better than Obama. In fact, McCain might get more socialism through. Socialism-lite and all. Flame away if you must, but, you know I’m right.

[Names Ash Housewares]

"McCain might get more socialism through"

Possibly in some ways.

It's what Obama will allow through that has me slightly more concerned....

[SSS Two]

If McCain wins the "Fulcrum State" and all states with a higher likelihood than the Fulcrum State, then McCain will win at least 270 e.v.'s.

Fulcrum State analysis implicitly believes that any McCain improvement among the states is highly correlated, a proposition I believe to be true.

By this measure, Sen. McCain is in the worst position since early March. Perhaps there has been some sort of modest Obama bounce after clinching the nomination.

Date	Fulcrum State	Percentage
June 16, 2008	New Mexico	36.5
June 9, 2008	New Mexico	38.0
June 2, 2008	Colorado	37.6
May 26, 2008	New Mexico	37.6
May 19, 2008	Colorado	37.5
May 12, 2008	New Hampshire	41.0
May 5, 2008	Ohio	36.8
April 28, 2008	Ohio	38.1
April 21, 2008	Ohio	38.5
April 14, 2008	Ohio	39.5
April 7, 2008	Ohio	38.3
March 31, 2008	Ohio	37.3
March 24, 2008	Michigan	39.0
March 17, 2008	Ohio	39.0
March 10, 2008	Ohio	39.0
March 3, 2008	New Hampshire	29.5
February 25, 2008	New Hampshire	30.8
February 18, 2008	Ohio	28.0
February 11, 2008	New Hampshire	29.5
February 4, 2008	Ohio	28.5
January 28, 2008	New Hampshire	27.5
January 21, 2008	Ohio	27.5
January 14, 2008	Ohio	27.5
January 7, 2008	Maine	29.5

[lookout88]

land of some brave, and home of the fat nanny staters.

[Rome2000]

Like someone said at least McCain won’t likely be around in 2012 to run.

But MYTH ROMNEY will be, and he agrees with the rats on nationalizing health care, and gay marriage, and abortion (at least until 3 years ago he was 58 years old and realized he might be running for President).

With clowns like this on our side, this country is screwed.

Bad enough to have to pull the lever fro McCain, but I'll be damned if I vote for FLIP ROMNEY.

I'll take a spaceship to Kolob before that happens.