Posted on 06/16/2008 3:08:09 PM PDT by Momaw Nadon
According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2008 Presidential Election.
If the traders are correct, John McCain would receive 245 Electoral Votes and Barack Obama would receive 293 Electoral Votes.
If the weighted probabilities of John McCain winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then John McCain should get 248.42 Electoral Votes.
270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.
Opinions and commentary are welcome.
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/9/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/2/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/26/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/19/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/12/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/5/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/7/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/31/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/24/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/17/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/10/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/3/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/25/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/18/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/11/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/4/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/7/2008
I suspect McCain will get crushed. The only bright side I can see is, due to his age, he won’t run for President again.
Thank you for the previous projections. With them one can make up trend lines and get some kind of look to the future.
IMO, Obama is highly unlikely to get more than 200 electoral votes. I’ll even bet a 6 pack on that.
That looks like an Obama best case scenario. I don’t see him winning OH or PA.
Unfortunately, I don’t think Obama’s beatable unless more controversy surfaces, and maybe not even then. Clinton, on the other hand, was beatable for many reasons. But the dems weren’t voting based on that, but on moon-eyed fanaticism. Our country is facing frightening times.
McCain needs Romney on the ticket to get MI into the win column.
Nothing new here. This has been happening since I started voting. There are more Rats then Republicans and they could run a yellow dog and win.
Who says Obama will be the nominee? Convention is months away.
Prepare for another “Carter” administration. This is going to be painful folks. It seems like every generation has to learn the lesson of just how stupid they can be and elect an idiot. Like someone said at least McCain won’t likely be around in 2012 to run. At least we can blame the mess, and there will be a big one, is all the Dems fault and hopefully wake America up to the folly of electing a President based on skin color.
“Our country is facing frightening times.”
No more so than other times we have survived. Revolution, Civil War, WWI, WWII, Cold War, Vietnam era, etc.
I am not frightened. I live in America. Land of the Brave.
Yeah, I’d bet more but the pain from a McCain “win” would require a few cases of Tequila.
“I suspect McCain will get crushed.”
I’d make McCain a slight favorite right now. He’s ahead in Ohio, Michigan, and Florida, and competitive in Pennsylvania.
McCain could win Ohio and NH, then we would have a 269-269 tie! Wouldn’t that be a hoot if McCain got more of the popular vote. Then what would the Dems in the House do?
McCain could win Ohio and NH, then we would have a 269-269 tie! Wouldn’t that be a hoot if McCain got more of the popular vote. Then what would the Dems in the House do?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.