Posted on 06/05/2008 2:14:18 PM PDT by The_Republican
And yet, McCain can’t bank on Democratic disarray. Despite polls showing him doing surprisingly well against Obama, historical patterns show he’s in perilous territory.
Professor Alan Abramowitz of Emory University has developed an “electoral barometer” based on just three variables for predicting election outcomes, and it suggests that McCain is all but certainly set to lose this year.
In an article last week on University of Virginia professor Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball Web site, Abramowitz declared that “it appears very likely that the Republican party is dealing with the dreaded ‘triple whammy’ in 2008: an unpopular president, a weak economy and a second-term election.”
Abramowitz has tracked the effect of those variables on the last 15 presidential elections and found that they accurately predicted the popular vote outcome in 14 and came close in the 15th.
The formula adds the incumbent president’s net approval rating (approval minus disapproval), the second-quarter election-year GDP growth rate multiplied by five (emphasizing the importance of the economy) and then (factoring in time-for-a-change sentiment) subtracts 25 points if the in-party is finishing a second term.
Bush’s net approval now stands at minus 40. The first-quarter growth rate was 0.6 percent and Bush is finishing eight years, meaning that this year’s electoral barometer currently stands at minus 62.
If such a number holds, it “would predict a decisive defeat for the Republican presidential candidate,” Abramowitz wrote.
“The only election since World War II with a score in this range was 1980,” when “Jimmy Carter suffered the worst defeat for an incumbent president since Herbert Hoover in 1932.”
The second worst occurred in 1952, when Democrat Adlai Stevenson tried to succeed Harry S. Truman with a minus 50 score and lost the popular vote by 11 points to Dwight D. Eisenhower.
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
Here in NZ, Barak Obama is being portrayed as a shoo-in for President. Wishful thinking, or does the NZ Herald know something everyone else doesn’t?
Mort Kondracke , blah,blah,bla...
Republicans can do themselves a favor by stopping the bobble head agreement with every tv host that yes, their party sucks and is disfavored this year.
“McCain Needs ‘Vision’ to Beat Historic Odds Favoring Obama in ’08”
Hello Kondracke, Obama being a very bad presidential candidate negates the “Historic Odds” that you talking heads love to spout.
McCain needs to improve as a candidate and talk about his OWN vision.
He can’t be afraid to attack Obama and he needs to categorize Obama’s vision as “socialism”.
Call him fiscally irresponsible and remind people that he would pull the defeat from the jaws of victory in Iraq.
He should repeat the words fiscally irresponsible and the fact that Obama has anti-growth agenda.
Obama would counter by saying all the money that has been wasted in Iraq and how his GREEN-ENERGY programs would create job.
McCain should counter by saying that the only GREEN ENERGY that Obama is going to produce is by burning the GREEN BACKS. That is not GROWTH, that is Socialism.
I know--dream on--LOL!
However does anyone else get the sense that Rush has something up his sleeve that's he's gonna pull out any day now?
What is the algorithim to account for the most liberal candidate in American History and the algorithim to account for the least experienced candidate since Lyndon LaRouche? The combination of these two is not a sum, but must be applied on a logarithmic scale. Now, do the math again and let’s see what we get.
Hello, Down There. How’s the economy in New Zealand and what are the prospects for 2009? I had an uncle who was in NZ during World War II. Thanks for being an good Ally.
McCain needs an ad that basically focuses on these ideas and using Obama’s own words to back it up:
Obama - Change America Cannot Afford (show costs of programs and taxes, more money out of pocket)
Obama - Not the Uniter He Claims To Be (highlight divisive speech, Michelle, Wright, Pfleger, etc)
Obama and the Leftist radicals that 32 years later control the democrat party will make Jimmy look like Ronald Reagan.
He’s GOT a vision! It’s just not the ‘vision’ that conservatives don’t want to see: unfettered illegal immigration, ascription to global warming BS and the resulting CO2 Nazi regulations that go with it, and an undying belief that liberals can be reasoned with and should be appeased. Losers, one and all!
...just not..... ...just......
In a multi-party political system O’Bambino would be running on a Socialist or Communist party ticket, with negligible chances of succeeding. In our, superior to all, two, or rather one and a half party system, the Communist camouflages himself and cakewalks to victory. What a country!
This is a second term election? How do they figure that?
“I mean anyone but McCain”
I share your dream. Must be a Texas thing.
My method, which is JUST as accurate as the one mentioned in this article, shows McCain winning:
In every election year since the Minneapolis Lakers moved to Los Angeles, the outcome of the Presidential election has been determined by whether the Los Angeles Lakers made it to the NBA Finals or not:
1964: Lakers did not make NBA Finals (Boston/SF)- Dems win (LBJ)
1968: Lakers make NBA Finals(LA/Boston) - GOP wins (Nixon)
1972: Lakers make NBA Finals (LA/NY)- GOP wins (Nixon)
1976: Lakers did not make NBA Finals (Boston/Phoenix)- Dems win (Carter)
1980: Lakers make NBA Finals (LA/Philly)- GOP wins (Reagan)
1984: Lakers make NBA Finals (LA/Boston) - GOP wins (Reagan)
1988: Lakers make NBA Finals (LA/Detroit) - GOP wins (GHWB)
1992: Lakers did not make NBA Finals (Chi/Port) - Dems win (Clinton)
1996: Lakers did not make NBA Finals (Chi/Seattle) - Dems win (Clinton)
2000: Lakers make NBA Finals (LA/Philly) - GOP wins (GWB)
2004: Lakers make NBA Finals (LA/Detroit)- GOP wins (GWB)
2008: Lakers make NBA Finals (LA/Boston) -
Going back to the Minneapolis Lakers, The Lakers Effect is not 100%, but 3 out of 4 ain’t bad:
1960: Lakers did not make NBA Finals (Boston/StL) - Dems win (JFK)
1956: Lakers did not make NBA Finals (Boston/StL) - GOP wins (DDE) - (the exception that proves the rule?)
1952: Lakers make NBA Finals (Minn/NY)- GOP wins (DDE)
1948: Lakers did not make NBA Finals (Balt/Philly)- Dems win (HST)
So, in summary, the LA Lakers are a perfect 11 of 11 in predicting the outcome of the Presidential election. The Minn/LA Lakers are 14/15 (93.3%) in predicting the outcome.
The outcome depends on how many people Obama can bamboozle with his empty-headed smile and lofty speeches full of flowery rhetoric but little substance.
Right now, we are seeing a mad, irrational rush to jump on the Obama bandwagon - the real question is, whether this is temporary or whether it can mantain its momentum going into the election.
I do think we’d be in a much better position had we chosen someone other than some old, creaky, center-left symbol of the past.
Go, Lakers!
Mccain’s head is so far up his, well you know where that his vison is a little blurry right now.
IMHO as soon as the polls show that all his liberal socialist friends have left him he will start sucking up to us hoping we will vote for him. Which I will if he moves to the right of center.
But right now, no I won’t.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.