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Al Qaeda Discusses Losing Iraq
Strategy Page ^ | 5/27/08

Posted on 05/27/2008 3:33:52 PM PDT by Dawnsblood

Al Qaeda web sites are making a lot of noise about "why we lost in Iraq." Western intelligence agencies are fascinated by the statistics being posted in several of these Arab language sites. Not the kind of stuff you read about in the Western media. According to al Qaeda, their collapse in Iraq was steep and catastrophic. According to their stats, in late 2006, al Qaeda was responsible for 60 percent of the terrorist attacks, and nearly all the ones that involved killing a lot of civilians. The rest of the violence was carried out by Iraqi Sunni Arab groups, who were trying in vain to scare the Americans out of the country.

Today, al Qaeda has been shattered, with most of its leadership and foot soldiers dead, captured or moved from Iraq. As a result, al Qaeda attacks have declined more than 90 percent. Worse, most of their Iraqi Sunni Arab allies have turned on them, or simply quit. This "betrayal" is handled carefully on the terrorist web sites, for it is seen as both shameful, and perhaps recoverable.

This defeat was not as sudden as it appeared to be, and some Islamic terrorist web sites have been discussing the problem for several years. The primary cause has been Moslems killed as a side effect of attacks on infidel troops, Iraqi security forces and non-Sunnis. Al Qaeda plays down the impact of this, calling the Moslem victims "involuntary martyrs." But that's a minority opinion. Most Moslems, and many other Islamic terrorists, see this as a surefire way to turn the Moslem population against the Islamic radicals. That's what happened earlier in Algeria, Afghanistan, Egypt and many other places. It's really got nothing to do with religion. The phenomenon hits non-Islamic terrorists as well (like the Irish IRA and the Basque ETA).

The senior al Qaeda leadership saw the problem, and tried to convince the "Al Qaeda In Iraq" leadership to cool it. That didn't work. As early as 2004, some Sunni Arabs were turning on al Qaeda because of the "involuntary martyrs" problem. The many dead Shia Arab civilians led to a major terror campaign by the Shia majority. They controlled the government, had the Americans covering their backs, and soon half the Sunni Arab population were refugees.

Meanwhile, the "Al Qaeda In Iraq" leadership was out of control. Most of these guys are really out there, at least in terms of fanaticism and extremism. This led to another fatal error. They declared the establishment of the "Islamic State of Iraq" in late 2006. This was an act of bravado, and touted as the first step in the re-establishment of the caliphate (a global Islamic state, ruled over by God's representative on earth, the caliph.) The caliphate has been a fiction for over a thousand years. Early on, the Islamic world was split by ethnic and national differences, and the first caliphate fell apart after a few centuries. Various rulers have claimed the title over the centuries, but since 1924, when the Turks gave it up (after four centuries), no one of any stature has taken it up. So when al Qaeda "elected" a nobody as the emir of the "Islamic State of Iraq", and talked about this being the foundation of the new caliphate, even many pro-al Qaeda Moslems were aghast. When al Qaeda could not, in 2007, exercise any real control over the parts of Iraq they claimed as part of the new Islamic State, it was the last straw. The key supporters, battered by increasingly effective American and Iraqi attacks, dropped their support for al Qaeda, and the terrorist organization got stomped to bits by the "surge offensive" of last year. The final insult was delivered by the former Iraqi Sunni Arab allies, who quickly switched sides, and sometimes even worked with the Americans (more so than the Shia dominated Iraqi security forces) to hunt down and kill al Qaeda operators.

If you can read Arabic, you can easily find these pro-terrorism sites, and see for yourself how al Qaeda is trying to explain its own destruction to its remaining supporters. While it's common to assume the Information War has been going against the West, this was not the case when you checked with what was going on inside the enemy camp.


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; Front Page News; News/Current Events; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: alqaeda; alqaedainiraq; awakening; basra; defeat; iran; iraq; islam; mahdiarmy; sadr; sadrcity; terror
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To: Brilliant
We chose the battleground

You nailed it - The times and places of our choosing -

21 posted on 05/27/2008 4:28:35 PM PDT by SevenMinusOne
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

Bump!


22 posted on 05/27/2008 4:29:38 PM PDT by pissant (THE Conservative party: www.falconparty.com)
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To: USMCPOP; debm29palms; USMCWriter; Jarhead2844; 1stbn27; 2111USMC; 2nd Bn, 11th Mar; 68 grunt; ...

Good thread, good posts.


23 posted on 05/27/2008 4:34:36 PM PDT by freema (Proud Marine Niece, Daughter, Wife, Friend, Sister, Cousin, Mom and FRiend)
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To: Tenacious 1
"..No bastard ever won a war by dying for his country. He won it by making the other poor dumb bastard die for his country.." - Colorful language left in for historical accuracy.

But the main thing is, the flypaper theory worked.

24 posted on 05/27/2008 4:38:44 PM PDT by labette ( Doctor of Thinkology)
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To: Dawnsblood

bump


25 posted on 05/27/2008 4:42:25 PM PDT by Skooz (Any nation that would elect Hillary Clinton as its president has forfeited its right to exist.)
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To: freema; Dawnsblood

Attention Murtha, Pelosi, Reid and the rest of the defeatist RATS, read it and weep!


26 posted on 05/27/2008 4:44:42 PM PDT by jazusamo (DefendOurMarines.org | DefendOurTroops.org)
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To: freema
When al Qaeda could not, in 2007, exercise any real control over the parts of Iraq they claimed as part of the new Islamic State, it was the last straw. The key supporters, battered by increasingly effective American and Iraqi attacks, dropped their support for al Qaeda, and the terrorist organization got stomped to bits by the "surge offensive" of last year. The final insult was delivered by the former Iraqi Sunni Arab allies, who quickly switched sides, and sometimes even worked with the Americans (more so than the Shia dominated Iraqi security forces) to hunt down and kill al Qaeda operators.

This is why I love being on your ping list, freema ~ it's just so...cheerful ;~)

27 posted on 05/27/2008 4:50:10 PM PDT by 4woodenboats (defendourtroops.org defendourmarines.org freeevanvela.com)
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To: Straight Vermonter; ChessExpert; Dawnsblood
I’m not going to say that the execution of this war was perfect. But if one knows the tiniest smidgen about military history, one knows that a “perfect war” is an absurdly high standard. As wars go, this one has been tremendously effective.

Thanks very much for the ping, SV.

The greatest success in the history of the armed forces of The United States of America with the help of coalition partners and Iraqi citizens.

Thanks for posting, Dawnsblood. Iraqi freedom BUMP!

28 posted on 05/27/2008 4:59:59 PM PDT by PGalt
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To: ChessExpert

Good points. It seems as though almost (almost) no-one has any sensible perspective on this. The average U.S. citizen who is not “connected” to the military has hardly felt the “load” of this war - a far different situation than, say, WWII.


29 posted on 05/27/2008 5:01:01 PM PDT by Paul R. (Today is not the day for combative taglines! So, I changed it!)
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To: Dawnsblood

I’m sure Olberman will start his show with this information and admit he’s been wrong all along. /sarcasm


30 posted on 05/27/2008 5:02:36 PM PDT by rdl6989
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To: Straight Vermonter

thanks for the ping - great article


31 posted on 05/27/2008 5:03:20 PM PDT by rockthecasbah (He has sounded forth the trumpet that shall never call retreat.)
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To: Straight Vermonter; Dawnsblood
Thanks for the ping.

Another related article ...FR Thread :

McCain Takes Obama to School on Iraq

32 posted on 05/27/2008 5:09:23 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach (No Burkas for my Grandaughters!)
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To: jazusamo

33 posted on 05/27/2008 5:11:17 PM PDT by freema (Proud Marine Niece, Daughter, Wife, Friend, Sister, Cousin, Mom and FRiend)
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To: 4woodenboats

That’s me...little Mary Sunshine : )


34 posted on 05/27/2008 5:12:09 PM PDT by freema (Proud Marine Niece, Daughter, Wife, Friend, Sister, Cousin, Mom and FRiend)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

Of course their mental gymnastics most probably will not lead to a change in their basic goals. The clash of civilizations shall continue for a long time most probably. Islam will continue to be a major problem on this globe. Hopefully Iraq shall throw off the yoke of it’s oppressive nature, and join the twentieth century. It is a real start.


35 posted on 05/27/2008 5:38:14 PM PDT by Marine_Uncle (Duncan Hunter was our best choice...)
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To: Dawnsblood

THANK YOU Gen. David H. Petraeus, commanding general of the 101st Airborne Division and ALL of our oustanding military forces!


36 posted on 05/27/2008 5:46:11 PM PDT by Randy Larsen (Arrogance IS my virtue!)
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To: Marine_Uncle

I agree. If Islam even made it up to the 18th century the world would be better off.


37 posted on 05/27/2008 5:55:59 PM PDT by Hamilcar_Barca (RINO's Of The World Unite!)
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To: freema
A little problem we as well as they have is they have no alternatives other then fighting for some ill conceived notion they are doing the bidding of some statue saved from damaged some fifteen hundred years back. Their taught a one way ticket to hell and have little option within their mind set to change their way of thinking. Many of them have so little to live for anyway. That is at the core of the problem. Islam and the cultures they live in prevent them from going the way of free thinkers. They are locked into a mode that prevents them from seeking the truths of their origins and how badly they where manipulated by recent historical events (WWII then lead by the nose by Russia) for the most part.
So thought I welcome this type reporting, I would hold my judgement as to the final outcome. I would venture many of these clowns would love to take part in joining some team that would set off an atomic bomb in some US city for instance.
38 posted on 05/27/2008 5:59:03 PM PDT by Marine_Uncle (Duncan Hunter was our best choice...)
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To: Hamilcar_Barca
But then we must examine how screwed up they became as the Nazi then the Russians took over and spurred their long held beliefs into a new frenzy.
At any rate. I have to hit the rack. Work comes early. Do have a great upcoming day.
39 posted on 05/27/2008 6:03:44 PM PDT by Marine_Uncle (Duncan Hunter was our best choice...)
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To: Marine_Uncle

Very well stated, as always.


40 posted on 05/27/2008 6:26:40 PM PDT by freema (Proud Marine Niece, Daughter, Wife, Friend, Sister, Cousin, Mom and FRiend)
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