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You Can't Soak the Rich
The Wall Street Journal ^ | May 20, 2008 | David Ranson

Posted on 05/20/2008 7:11:25 AM PDT by ReleaseTheHounds

Kurt Hauser is a San Francisco investment economist who, 15 years ago, published fresh and eye-opening data about the federal tax system. His findings imply that there are draconian constraints on the ability of tax-rate increases to generate fresh revenues. I think his discovery deserves to be called Hauser's Law, because it is as central to the economics of taxation as Boyle's Law is to the physics of gases. Yet economists and policy makers are barely aware of it.

Like science, economics advances as verifiable patterns are recognized and codified. But economics is in a far earlier stage of evolution than physics. Unfortunately, it is often poisoned by political wishful thinking, just as medieval science was poisoned by religious doctrine. Taxation is an important example. ...

Mr. Hauser uncovered the means to answer these questions definitively. On this page in 1993, he stated that "No matter what the tax rates have been, in postwar America tax revenues have remained at about 19.5% of GDP." What a pity that his discovery has not been more widely disseminated.

(Excerpt) Read more at online.wsj.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Editorial; Government; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: economics; gdp; laffercurve; policy; socialism; tax
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To: Principled
Who pays more AR?

a) those who pay embedded taxes only
b) those who pay embedded taxes AND PIT AND Payroll?

Embedded taxes = PIT + Payroll + Corporate Taxes + Excise Taxes = approx 23% of Cost of Goods and Services

To say that someone pays BOTH to play the fairytax shell game. For an ACCURATE analysis one has to assume either the person who remits the tax pays the tax OR that all these taxes are embedded. This is why Dr. Jorgenson had to pull out the taxes from wages and assume that people are only paid their after tax salary (ie. his assumption workers/businesses don't pay taxes, the consumers do). Otherwise he would come to the bogus conclusion that you are trying to do, and that fairytax.org has been doing for over a decade. The fairtax theoretically collects the exact same amount as the current system, criminals cheat the fairtax almost identically as they do the current system, therefore people end up paying roughly the same as they do now. Under your analysis of counting BOTH, you would come to the conclusion that people under the income tax pay 46% of the costs of goods and services and therefore collects over $4 Trillion dollars. That is not true, and thus your analysis fails.

61 posted on 05/21/2008 6:05:06 AM PDT by Always Right (Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?)
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To: Principled
Who pays more AR?

a) those who pay embedded taxes only
b) those who pay embedded taxes AND PIT AND Payroll?

Embedded taxes = PIT + Payroll + Corporate Taxes + Excise Taxes = approx 23% of Cost of Goods and Services

To say that someone pays BOTH to play the fairytax shell game. For an ACCURATE analysis one has to assume either the person who remits the tax pays the tax OR that all these taxes are embedded. This is why Dr. Jorgenson had to pull out the taxes from wages and assume that people are only paid their after tax salary (ie. his assumption workers/businesses don't pay taxes, the consumers do). Otherwise he would come to the bogus conclusion that you are trying to do, and that fairytax.org has been doing for over a decade. The fairtax theoretically collects the exact same amount as the current system, criminals cheat the fairtax almost identically as they do the current system, therefore people end up paying roughly the same as they do now. Under your analysis of counting BOTH, you would come to the conclusion that people under the income tax pay 46% of the costs of goods and services and therefore collects over $4 Trillion dollars. That is not true, and thus your analysis fails.

Sorry, keep forgeting to turn off italics...

62 posted on 05/21/2008 6:05:53 AM PDT by Always Right (Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?)
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To: Always Right
You can either count taxes being paid by the individuals and businesses that submit them, or you can count them as embedded.

OK then, count taxes by who "submits" them. If you choose to leave embedded taxes in the ether, fine. Then,

Individual taxes [PIT and EE payroll] are taxes "submitted" by individuals.

Business taxes [ER payroll, business income taxes] are taxes "submitted" by business.

Criminals and illegals currently "submit" no individual taxes. But under the nrst, they will. QED.

63 posted on 05/21/2008 6:06:34 AM PDT by Principled (Vaporize the "Divide and Conquer" taxes - Have everyone pay the same marginal rate!. NRST!)
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To: Principled
Criminals and illegals currently "submit" no individual taxes. But under the nrst, they will. QED.

So you are saying the hooker who collects $5000 pays no income tax under the income tax (true), but under the fairtax will submit the $1150 to pay the tax on her services???? I think you QED a little too quickly.

64 posted on 05/21/2008 6:12:24 AM PDT by Always Right (Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?)
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To: Principled

The counter argument is that there will be a huge black market in order to avoid the nrst.

This is simply stating that human behaviors change based on the incentives that are imposed.

So, the answer is, keep the tax below the “acceptable” level for the public, and they will have little incentive to risk breaking the law in order to avoid the tax.

I believe this article shows what the acceptable level would be - 19.5%.


65 posted on 05/21/2008 6:14:09 AM PDT by MrB (You can't reason people out of a position that they didn't use reason to get into in the first place)
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To: Always Right
criminals cheat the fairtax almost identically as they do the current system,

No, this isn't right - you don't provide anything to buttress this I note.

Again, you fail to accept the fact that nobody says the total collected increases. It is simply that the breakdown of that total changes to include more paid by those who currently cheat the income tax system and less from those who are current legal participants.

In figuring a % of GDP, there is no difference between who buys for consumption. A criminal who buys bread pays tax just like a legal. THe same is not true of our current income tax system.... a criminal "submits" no tax today.

Again, the simple [and I do mean simple] result is that more tax is taken from criminals [and less from legals - resulting in the same total.]

Simply taking a % of GDP is enough to guarantee it. You see, criminals' expenditures are no different than your or my expenditures. THey both count in GDP.

66 posted on 05/21/2008 6:19:06 AM PDT by Principled (Vaporize the "Divide and Conquer" taxes - Have everyone pay the same marginal rate!. NRST!)
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To: MrB

19.5% yes. Interesting, that would be the rev nuetral rate if you include Bush tax cuts. Funny eh?

Also, the nrst takes the EXACT same figure for non-compliance as the income tax does.


67 posted on 05/21/2008 6:21:46 AM PDT by Principled (Vaporize the "Divide and Conquer" taxes - Have everyone pay the same marginal rate!. NRST!)
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To: Principled

I really don’t care about “rev neutral” - because that means that we accept the current level of gov’t spending.

But, if that’s what it takes to get the NRST implemented, we’ll fight the other battles later.


68 posted on 05/21/2008 6:25:24 AM PDT by MrB (You can't reason people out of a position that they didn't use reason to get into in the first place)
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To: Always Right
As has been explained hundreds of times, the fairtax does nothing to tax criminals. Unless the fairtax compels criminals to remit sales tax on their illegal activities, criminals still avoid the fairtax in nearly the exact mannor as they avoid income taxes. Stick to legitimate points and not the fairytax smoke and mirror ones.

You mean that criminals won't ever buy any new items or services -- they will only buy untaxed used items? Good thinking -- for you.

69 posted on 05/21/2008 6:28:01 AM PDT by Turret Gunner A20 (Appeasement is feeding the dragon hoping he will eat you LAST -- Winston Churchill)
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To: Always Right
So you are saying the hooker who collects $5000 pays no income tax under the income tax (true), but under the fairtax will submit the $1150 to pay the tax on her services????

No, this is your fixation.

Nobody says she will pay tax on her illegal transaction. Let that sink in AR, because this is what is preventing you from seeing what is so obvious.

The tax on that transaction is lost in both systems. This transaction will neither add to nor take away from revenues. Got it?

Now, under the income tax, it's over. No revenue will ever be "submitted" by the hooker on money from that transaction.

But under the nrst, the money from that transaction will be taxed when spent on satin sheets, soap, or lube. Hence, the tax "submitted" by the hooker increases. QED.

70 posted on 05/21/2008 6:31:01 AM PDT by Principled (Vaporize the "Divide and Conquer" taxes - Have everyone pay the same marginal rate!. NRST!)
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To: SamuraiScot

‘Western’, yes I agree with the spirit of your argument, but I am not among the moaners and complainers. The Church, along with wealthy city-states and eastern empires allowed for patronage - due to their great power and wealth. Truly there has never been a more generous patron than the Church.


71 posted on 05/21/2008 6:31:10 AM PDT by Unassuaged (I have shocking data relevant to the conversation!)
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To: Principled
No, this isn't right - you don't provide anything to buttress this I note.

That is what the hooker example precisely does. Let's assume a hooker collects $50,000 for her services.

If she filed under the income tax (she doesn't) it would look something like this:

Gross - +$50K
Minus Bus. Expenses - $10K
Minus Personal Exemptions -
Minus Standard Deductions -
Without looking up these figures, it would probably workout including her self-emplyment taxes to $10-12K that she is suppose to pay, but doesn't.

Under the fairtax:

Gross for her services - $50K
23% that she should remit but doesn't - $11.5K

Under BOTH system, the hooker illegally pockets roughly the same amount. This isn't rocket science. From the criminal perspective, there is no significant difference between the two systems. Really.

72 posted on 05/21/2008 6:33:25 AM PDT by Always Right (Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?)
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To: Always Right
Damn!!! you're thick headed.

Try reading #26 again -- that is if you read it in the first place -- and, of course tht depends on whether or not you Can READ.

73 posted on 05/21/2008 6:35:40 AM PDT by Turret Gunner A20 (Appeasement is feeding the dragon hoping he will eat you LAST -- Winston Churchill)
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To: MrB
...if that’s what it takes to get the NRST implemented, we’ll fight the other battles later.

That is exactly my position. When we all pay the same marginal rate, all taxpayers [and under the nrst that means EVERY person who buys - which obviously is EVERY voter]...all taxpayers will be united in opposition to any increase and all taxpayers will be united in support of any decrease. All until a spending/taxing level is acceptable to everyone - BTW everyone will pay the same marginal rate.

74 posted on 05/21/2008 6:36:32 AM PDT by Principled (Vaporize the "Divide and Conquer" taxes - Have everyone pay the same marginal rate!. NRST!)
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To: Principled

You’re wsasting your time with that one. That has been explained to him/her/it dozens of time, with absolutely no effect, and it has become quite obvious that he/she/it either cannot read, cannot understand the English language, or both.


75 posted on 05/21/2008 6:42:11 AM PDT by Turret Gunner A20 (You're wasting your timne with that one)
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To: IamConservative
Does that graph mean to imply the Top Individual income tax rate in 1955 was 90%?

Nope! It doesn't imply it -- it plainly states that fact. It was 90% and the Dmocraps were even trying to raise that.

76 posted on 05/21/2008 6:45:15 AM PDT by Turret Gunner A20 (You're wasting your timne with that one)
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To: Always Right
Under BOTH system, the hooker illegally pockets roughly the same amount on this transaction. This isn't rocket science. From the criminal perspective, there is no significant difference between the two systems on this transaction. Really.

Really, if you include the bold, this is what everyone is already saying. Why can't you get beyond that? We all agree on that.

The next thing for you to do is to compare what happens to her earnings next under both systems. Under the income tax, those earnings are never taxed. Under the nrst, those earnings WILL be taxed.

So under the income tax, the hooker pays zero. Under the nrst, the hooker pays some when she consumes using that illegal money.

So it is trivial that the nrst collects more from this hooker than the income tax. QED #3

77 posted on 05/21/2008 6:46:27 AM PDT by Principled (Vaporize the "Divide and Conquer" taxes - Have everyone pay the same marginal rate!. NRST!)
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To: Turret Gunner A20

Well, I think AR is reasonable - but is blinded by emotion a bit. He’ll get it. He won’t ever like the nrst, but he will end up admitting that legals will pay less under the nrst and criminals/illegals will pay more.


78 posted on 05/21/2008 6:49:57 AM PDT by Principled (Vaporize the "Divide and Conquer" taxes - Have everyone pay the same marginal rate!. NRST!)
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To: Principled
Set your assumptions, then do your analysis. If you FIX your assumptions and stop changing them in the middle of your examples, you will finally come to the correct answer. Until then, it is impossible to get through to you. There are two logical assumptions, just stick to one.

1. Taxes are paid by the consumer. Jorgenson embedded tax model. Prices after the fairtax stay the same. Businesses and employees make current after tax income.

2. Taxes are paid by the businesses/workers. Prices go up after the fairtax is enacted. Workers and employees keep their current gross income.

Once you stick completely to one of those assumptions, then you will do a fair analysis and reach the correct conclusion. Otherwise, enjoy your time in fairyland.

79 posted on 05/21/2008 6:51:33 AM PDT by Always Right (Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?)
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To: Always Right
AR, I followed your requirement .

For an ACCURATE analysis one has to assume either the person who remits the tax pays the tax OR that all these taxes are embedded.

I did that. I assumed that business remits and pays ER payroll and business income tax and that individuals remit and pay PIT and EE payroll - just as you required.

Why don't you admit you're wrong? It doesn't mean you support the nrst. It just means the nrst will indeed allow those who currently legally particpate in the income tax system to pay less... because criminals and illegals will pay more.

It's just one small piece AR. Don't become a namecaller - just do what's right.

80 posted on 05/21/2008 6:59:35 AM PDT by Principled (Vaporize the "Divide and Conquer" taxes - Have everyone pay the same marginal rate!. NRST!)
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