Democrats' upper hand seen as surmountable

The Columbas Dispatch ^ | May 15, 2008 | Mark Niquette

[2ndDivisionVet]

The political climate couldn't be much more favorable for Democrats in their efforts to take back the White House this year, but that doesn't necessarily mean they will, two national political observers said in Columbus today.

President Bush is unpopular, more people consider themselves Democrats than Republicans, and polls show Democrats enjoy a clear advantage on issues Americans care about, pollster Peter D. Hart and columnist Mark Shields said.

Also, the economy is near or in recession, the nation is mired in an unpopular war, and for the first time in many generations, a majority of Americans don't think the next generation will be better off.

“Given the lay of the land, the fundamentals of this election, I've never seen a more favorable environment for Democrats,” Shields said during the first public event of the new Gilligan Institute, named after former Ohio Gov. John J. Gilligan.

“If the Democrats lose this election, they ought to seriously consider going into the aluminum-siding business or taking up needlepoint,” said Shields, a nationally syndicated columnist and PBS political analyst.

But expected nominee Sen. Barack Obama is running even in national polls with presumptive GOP nominee Sen. John McCain because the Democratic nomination battle still is raging, and Obama is not connecting with the white, blue-collar and non-college-educated voters he will need in the fall, the experts said.

Hart, a pollster and founder of Peter D. Hart Associates, described a focus group he conducted with independent voters in West Virginia. He said it was clear that their impression of Obama was shaped by the controversial comments of his former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, and that many thought Obama was a Muslim.

Also, 9 percent of Sen. Hillary Clinton's supporters said in a recent poll that they would not back Obama if he wins the nomination, Hart said.

“That is the difference between winning this election comfortably, or winning it narrowly, or even losing it,” he said.

Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius, Gilligan's daughter and moderator for the event at the Columbus Athletic Club, said in an interview that she expects that the nomination will be decided by June and that Clinton supporters will support the party.

Sebelius, who endorsed Obama, said that in Ohio and other states that Clinton carried in the Democratic primaries, backing from governors such as Ted Strickland will be key. Strickland campaigned hard for Clinton before the Ohio primary and has said he will do the same for the nominee.

“I'm an optimist that what unites us as Democrats is far stronger than what divides the two candidates,” she said.

Sebelius downplayed national speculation that she will be considered as a running mate for the Democratic presidential nominee this fall, but she stopped short of saying she wouldn't accept if asked, as Strickland has said.

The Gilligan Institute is a new nonprofit group that will study Gilligan's career and encourage discussion and debate about politics and government in Ohio.

[JPJones]

The Gilligan Institute is a new nonprofit group that will study Gilligan's career..

I want to join that. I really like the time Gilligan ate the radioactive spinach and got super strong.....