Dissecting Hillary's Win in West Virginia (Excellent analysis)

The National Review ^ | May 13, 2008

[2ndDivisionVet]

Ninety-five percent of Democratic primary voters in West Virginia today were white. About 70 percent of them did not have a college degree.

Among white voters without a college degree — largest demographic in the state — Hillary carried, 72 percent to 25 percent. She won white voters with a college degree, 55 percent to 41 percent.

Back of the envelope calculation gives Hillary a floor of 64.15 percent... winning by 29 points at least.

As discussed last Tuesday afternoon, the dominant voices in the press are ready to declare the race over. Last Tuesday night, we saw some of the most influential voices in television news (Russert, Stephanopolous) declare the primary over. Terry McAuliffe is complaining that 90 percent of the media are in the tank for Obama. (Welcome to the party, pal.)

You'll see the press, and Obama's surrogates (perhaps I repeat myself) insist that tonight's result means nothing, and indeed, in the delegate count, the effect is marginal. But superdelegates ought to be sweating. White working-class voters, and various overlapping demographics - the elderly, Catholics, Jews - just aren't warming up to Obama, and they've been the backbone for the party for generations. Liberal bloggers (and Saturday Night Live, and arguably the Washington Post) are responding by suggesting Hillary's supporters are racist; these people may not be so eager to vote for Obama in November as the pundits insist. Once you insult a voter by calling them racist, they may not be eager to meekly repent by doing as their moral betters in the pundit class demand.

Hillary Clinton is still the underdog, and she faces long odds to overcome Obama in the delegate and superdelegate fights. But the fact that anointed-nominee Obama couldn't make any traction in any key demographic in West Virginia ought to keep the superdelegates awake at night. And she will be invigorated by this win; landslide victories tend to do that. The exhausted mainstream media bigfoots tried to end this story one chapter too early.

[conservatism_IS_compassion]

Re my #40:

Those super delegates have a real problem!

Actually, they have an easy out. They can always nominate McCain on the Democratic ticket. Except for minor things like his being pro life and pro victory . . .

[aegiscg47]

I think your analysis is right on the mark. With Obama failing as he is now, I can see Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin, and maybe even Michigan and New Jersey going for McCain. I just hope that he holds off this last charge by Hillary and ends up as the nominee. I can never understand why so many on this site would rather run against her when Obama is clearly the weaker candidate.

[Rennes Templar]

“White people don’t like Obama”

But educated, young black people don’t like Hillary.
And young white metros like Obama.

The Dims are split, they are in a no-win situation.

[Wyoming Cowboy]

Twenty-something idiots and blacks was essentially what the McGovern coalition was made up of. Lot of good it did him.

[CottonBall]

White working-class voters, and various overlapping demographics - the elderly, Catholics, Jews - just aren't warming up to Obama, and they've been the backbone for the party for generations.

The Dem's backbone doesn't like their (presumptive) candidate and the Republican's backbone doesn't like theirs either. This election is a mess and we're screwed, no matter who wins.

[green iguana]

I can never understand why so many on this site would rather run against her when Obama is clearly the weaker candidate.

Because if for some reason he actually won in November, he would be the much, much worse President. Clinton would move center, just like Bill did in order to get re-elected. 'bama wouldn't. And naive, inexperienced and arrogant is a very dangerous combination in a President.

[CottonBall]

I think they have that assbackwards...70% went to college and it was either Marshall or WVU.

Perhaps it's the group you work and associate with that has a 70% rate for college degrees. It's pretty typical of most places that somewhere between 20-35% have degrees. Looks like WV is actually on the higher end of the spectrum.

This is from census 2005 data site

The Northeast had the highest proportion of college graduates (30.9 percent), followed by the West (30.2 percent), the Midwest (26.0 percent) and the South (25.5 percent).

[CottonBall]

Sorry no offense, but there must be a reason WV is the butt of jokes.

Hey, don't insult my retirement state! I can't wait to get out of Mexifornia and back to the U.S. And from the stats, WV and a handful of other states will be the only ones to resemble the US in another 20-25 years. In fact, that's probably true today.

Heavily forested, mountainous, rural, uninvaded - sounds perfect to me!

[CottonBall]

McPain will be elected President with a HUGE rat majority in Congress.

I'd bet he's giddy now thinking of all the liberal legislation he can pass for the Dems.

[Ann Archy]

West Virginia must have a LOT of RACISTS!! Obama should have been MUCH closer.

[Clemenza]

Among Dem voters in West Virginia, I have no doubt that 70% DO NOT have a college degree. It has the lowest % of college graduates of any state and the oldest population as well (lots of retired miners as you probably know).

Beautiful state with friendly people, though still very poor by American standards. Of course, I have only been there twice.

[Clemenza]

Yes, but it has NO economy! Whether you like it or not, immigrants, legal or illegal, are attracted to areas with economic growth.

In other words, its a good place to be a senior citizen collecting off of your 401k and the sale of your house in CA, but sucks if you are in the prime of your working life and want to earn a living.

[ModelBreaker]

The black and loony leftist base of the rat party will turn out in droves in the Fall. The coalition of blue-collar dems, independents, and deflated GOP base should be just enough to put McPain ahead of the black/loony left hordes that will turn out for Osama. HOWEVER, those blue-collar dems and independents will absolutely NOT be voting GOP down ticket, and McPain will be elected President with a HUGE rat majority in Congress.

Yup. That's why I prefer to run against HRC. She won't beat-down our down ticket nearly so badly as will Obama.

The top of our ticket is hopeless. I'm much more concerned about preserving our strength in Congress and the state houses. And for that, keeping the idiot 20 somethings out of the voting booths and keeping black turnout to normal will make a huge difference.