Skip to comments.OBAMA CAN'T WIN IN NOVEMBER
Posted on 05/13/2008 9:50:43 AM PDT by shortstop
Obama can't win.
It's not that complex, really. He just can't win.
A candidate who can't win over his own party certainly can't win over the country.
The traits and flaws which make him an unacceptable candidate to roughly a third of Democrats will make him an unacceptable candidate to a majority of Americans.
And that's how you lose elections.
This isn't meant to bash him, it's just meant to be honest and lay the cards on the table. The nagging question from the Clinton camp -- Why can't he close the deal? -- is legitimate and haunting, and it gets to the point. Barack Obama has fared poorly in big, electorally rich states in his quest for the Democratic nomination. The reasons for that are only going to be exacerbated when he faces independents and Republicans.
And here are those reasons.
Barack Obama is a black nationalist with a condescending attitude toward people who are different from him and, just for good measure, he has the most liberal voting record in the United States Senate. His viewpoints on taxation are confiscatory, his attitudes toward entitlement are socialist, his thoughts on the war are defeatist.
And he doesn't seem to like white people who live in small towns, own guns or go to church.
And those attitudes don't win many friends across the electorate. And before you denounce that perspective as racist or reactionary or unfair, please note that it is an assessment which has been made by hundreds of thousands of Democrat primary voters.
And if the white Democrats don't think they can trust you, you don't have a chance with the white Republicans. If Democrats think you're too liberal, you're not going to win over very many independents or conservatives.
Though I am a Republican, and am going to vote for John McCain, the Hillary Clinton campaign has a very valid point when it raises the issue of Barack Obama's electability. They are right to point out that he doesn't have any. The darling of the news media and the favorite most liberal Democrats is not a good match for the country as a whole.
Barack Obama has been a fulltime candidate for a year, and today West Virginia Democrats are going to hand him his lunch. Barack Obama has been a fulltime candidate for a year, and he couldn't win California, New York, Texas, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan or Florida. That's a murderer's row of electoral-vote states and Obama whiffed in each one of them.
Granted, he came close in some, and two of them the Democrats aren't going to count, but in the states where you need to win a majority of voters to become president, he hasn't even gotten a majority of Democrats.
And he's running against a liberal Republican who appeals to independents and disaffected Democrats.
Against a conservative, maybe people would rally to Obama as an alternative, but against a Republican who's not very Republican, he's more frightening to the center than is his opponent.
So the math on Barack Obama becoming president is sketchy at best. His only hope is that Democrats rally to him with complete enthusiasm, that bygones are truly bygones, and that somehow John McCain has a meltdown that completely alienates everyone but diehard Republicans. Barack Obama's best hope is that Democrat hatred for George W. Bush can be transplanted -- without a good reason -- to John McCain. That's why Obama says McCain is running for Bush's third term, because he knows he can't beat McCain, but he can beat Bush.
The last successful Democratic presidential candidate who campaigned as a liberal was Franklin Delano Roosevelt. Harry Truman, John F. Kennedy, Lyndon B. Johnson, Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton all campaigned and were seen by the voters as moderates. Some of them didn't turn out to be, but they kept that little fact hidden until after the election. There is a reason they did it that way -- America isn't really comfortable with liberals, not in a majority way.
That's why candidates like Hubert Humphrey, Eugene McCarthy, Michael Dukakis and John Kerry have done so poorly. They each were clearly identified as liberals -- in fairly liberal eras -- and they all lost.
Though he has since taken a hard-left turn, Al Gore campaigned as a moderate -- and scored a virtual tie for the presidency.
America doesn't like liberals in the White House. That's why there have been so few of them there. Just Wilson, Roosevelt, Carter and Clinton in a century.
Obama's liberalism goes against the electoral experience of the Democratic Party and against the electoral tastes of the American people.
His arrogance and elitism, and his 20 years of listening to the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, are just icing on the cake.
If a man can't even win his own party, it's not likely he can win the country.
Barack Obama has faced the Democratic primary voters and he couldn't win their nomination. He couldn't quite get it over the top.
And that's just how he will do in November.
Knew that way before Bob Lonsberry.
Yes he can!
(His opponent is a Liberal himself and the American people always choose a D Liberal over an R Liberal.)
We have a standoff. McCain is doing everything possible to not win.
I agree. This is not looking good for the Demos.
Not true. McLaim just sealed it for him yesterday with this Climate Change speech. I've already contacted his headquarters to pull my support. I refuse to vote for the man. Did anybody hear his speech yesterday? It might as well been Gore up there spewing that garbage. I'm out!
Good summary, but I wish the author would have kept this secret! It seems we’re the only ones who really know this.../sarc
Wrong, he can and WILL win. How many Conservatives are staying home? How many here are planning on not voting at all? How many are planning to vote for a third party? How many simply WILL NOT, under any circumstances vote for McCain.
He can and WILL win with this defeatist attitude that seems to be permeating the US.
I figured I would vote for McCain and have supported those who thought like me that it was the best for the nation, our economy, and our troops.
Except for the troops and perhaps, MAYBE, the supreme court nominations that will be sure to come there will be no difference in the two.
We are so screwed right now I am tempted to just throw a vote at Barr as a slap in the face to the RNC and hunker down to wait this sh** storm out.
HILLARY CLINTON can’t win.
It’s not that complex, really. SHE just can’t win.
A candidate who can’t win over HER OWN party certainly can’t win over the country.
The traits and flaws which make HER an unacceptable candidate to roughly a third of Democrats will make HER an unacceptable candidate to a majority of Americans.
And that’s how you lose elections.
All of this could be said about Hillary Clinton also. As the presumptive front-runner, who entered this election cycle with many advantages, she found herself in the struggle of her political life in this campaign. And her already high negatives have gotten worse, even among Democrats, in this campaign.
Maybe the Democrat year of 2008 just won’t be that friendly to Democrats after all.
Bob doesn’t consider Johnson liberal? Interesting. I should note though that, of his “four” liberal presidents, one served twice as many terms as a president can currently serve.
You underestimate the ennui generated by the GOP candidate. The voters won’t turn out. See, Bush 1992, Dole 1995, the Congress 2006... Obama has an excellent chance.
. A candidate who can’t win over his own party certainly can’t win over the country.
Then hillereeee wouldn’t win either? She hasn’t won over her own party either.
I think that’s why Hillary is staying in. If it ain’t Hillary as candidate, the Repubs are going to win this one.
Pubbies might very well win regardless.
The surest way that we will lose, is if Hilly and Obama put aside their differences and run together as Pres/VP. Then all the Dems will unite behind the ticket and they will win.
But John McCain can sure as Hell lose....
What if they had an election and nobody voted?
Talk about getting it bass-akwards.
Well, by that logic, McCain can't win either. ;)
Though his point is valid - the "JFK Democrat" McCain will appeal to a much broader audience than the "60's Counterculture Democrat" Obama.
I agree. He will most likely win by a decent percentage to boot. Although they are split in the primaries, they will band together in main election. Obama commands amazing support. McCain does not. A simple walk around any mall shows lots of stores selling Obama shirts and other gear. There were a couple Hillary shirts, and no McCain anything. It looks like we will be dealing with an Obama presidency. Let’s just hope we can at least control one half of Congress.
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