Unfortunately Colorado's redness is turing bluer every year. We now have a Democrat governor and legislature, a Democrat senator, and several Democrat congresscritters. We have a saying here: "North means mountains to the left. South means mountains to the right. East and West are where liberals come from." And they have come, and they're taking over. My county is still safely red, but I don't know for how long.
I disagree that the race tightening was due to Rush. This will be a nailbiter no matter what.
I wouldn’t put too much trust in these early numbers.
By November, gasoline could be hitting the $4.00/gal mark and associated increases in food, utilities, goods and services will continue.
Those prices will impact consumers who may feel pinched by those prices. If so, they will vote with their pocketbooks; they will vote for ‘change’. And that is not good news for any GOP candidate.
[The excuse that the Dems have the Congress won’t fly. They have only been in the majority 2 years. The GOP had control for 12 years in the House and over half-a-decade in the Senate. The GOP expects to lose more House and Senate seats in November. McCain has an uphill battle, and economics is not his strong suit.]
Everyone is forgetting that Obama is popular with the (very) leftist Dems, but will scare all the swing voters into the R column.
I noticed that this poll does not distinguish between Clinton and Obama. It seems to assume that whomever is the Democratic nominee is irrelevant to how many Electoral Votes the Democrats will get in November. That makes this poll flawed.
No matter what happens between now and November, these are the only states that matter, REGARDLESS of who the nominees are:
Leans Democratic: Iowa (7), Michigan (17), New Mexico (5),
Pennsylvania (21) and Wisconsin (10).
Toss-Up: Colorado (9), Nevada (5), New Hampshire (4), and Ohio (20).
Leans Republican: Florida (27), Missouri (11), Virginia (13).
If Hillary was the nominee, I think she would absolutely win all of the Democratic “Lean” states, although McCain might give her a run for her money in New Mexico.
Therefore, she would only need 10 electoral votes from the “Toss-up” states to win. Since she has such a strong following in Ohio, I doubt McCain could beat her there, even though he polls fairly even with her there. She wouldn’t even need CO, NV, or NH to win. Case closed. Game over. She might even give McCain a run for his money in MO.
If Obama is the nominee, I see him taking all the “Democratic Lean” states with ease, except for Pennsylvania, which would be a “Toss-Up” state if he is the nominee. As for the “Toss-Up” states, I see Obama winning Colorado easily, but McCain winning Nevada and Ohio handily. McCain cleans Obama’s clock in Florida & Missouri — and let’s just say, for the sake of argument, Obama makes Virginia close, and we put Virginia as a “Toss-Up” state.
Assuming my analysis is correct, and I think it is pretty objective, an Obama candidacy dramatically shifts the battleground in McCain’s favor. Obama loses a “Democratic Lean” state in PA; he loses a “Toss-Up” state in OH and let’s say he gains a “Toss-Up” state in Virginia. Therefore, an Obama candidacy, minimally, is a 7 electoral vote gain for McCain, and puts PA in play.
There is absolutely no question that Hillary would be a stronger candidate than Obama in the general election. No question at all. And there is no reason either candidate needs to spend $1.00 in any state other than the 12 states listed above.
Who knows who will end up being the candidates from whom the levers are pulled come this November? Between the cup and the lips is a walk of many leagues, sometimes.
From your mouth to God’s ear. This year is a nightmare no matter who wins. While some choices are less bad, all are bad
bush is a disaster for the Republican party
My biggest worry is what he will do to the down ticket races. If, as I fear, he gets really beat the GOP won't even rate honorable mention in Congress.