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No matter what happens between now and November, these are the only states that matter, REGARDLESS of who the nominees are:

Leans Democratic: Iowa (7), Michigan (17), New Mexico (5),
Pennsylvania (21) and Wisconsin (10).

Toss-Up: Colorado (9), Nevada (5), New Hampshire (4), and Ohio (20).

Leans Republican: Florida (27), Missouri (11), Virginia (13).

If Hillary was the nominee, I think she would absolutely win all of the Democratic “Lean” states, although McCain might give her a run for her money in New Mexico.

Therefore, she would only need 10 electoral votes from the “Toss-up” states to win. Since she has such a strong following in Ohio, I doubt McCain could beat her there, even though he polls fairly even with her there. She wouldn’t even need CO, NV, or NH to win. Case closed. Game over. She might even give McCain a run for his money in MO.

If Obama is the nominee, I see him taking all the “Democratic Lean” states with ease, except for Pennsylvania, which would be a “Toss-Up” state if he is the nominee. As for the “Toss-Up” states, I see Obama winning Colorado easily, but McCain winning Nevada and Ohio handily. McCain cleans Obama’s clock in Florida & Missouri — and let’s just say, for the sake of argument, Obama makes Virginia close, and we put Virginia as a “Toss-Up” state.

Assuming my analysis is correct, and I think it is pretty objective, an Obama candidacy dramatically shifts the battleground in McCain’s favor. Obama loses a “Democratic Lean” state in PA; he loses a “Toss-Up” state in OH and let’s say he gains a “Toss-Up” state in Virginia. Therefore, an Obama candidacy, minimally, is a 7 electoral vote gain for McCain, and puts PA in play.

There is absolutely no question that Hillary would be a stronger candidate than Obama in the general election. No question at all. And there is no reason either candidate needs to spend $1.00 in any state other than the 12 states listed above.