I noticed that this poll does not distinguish between Clinton and Obama. It seems to assume that whomever is the Democratic nominee is irrelevant to how many Electoral Votes the Democrats will get in November. That makes this poll flawed.
"This Balance of Power Calculator aggregates data from a variety of sources to provide a comprehensive assessment of the state-by-state race for the White House. Data inputs include the latest Rasmussen Reports poll in a state, an average of the latest polling from other firms, Rasmussen Markets data, Intrade market data, the aggregated rankings of selected analysts, the state’s voting history, and national party identification trends. The weight given to each variable will vary over time (i.e.—polls will be counted more heavily in October than today, a state’s history will be counted more heavily today than in October).
I think it all comes down to: 1.) what will the price of gasoline be after Labor Day and 2.) what will the unemployment rate be in October? If you know the answer, you'll know whether to bet the farm on McCain or leave the country.