Posted on 05/09/2008 12:31:17 PM PDT by MNJohnnie
Unfortunately Colorado's redness is turing bluer every year. We now have a Democrat governor and legislature, a Democrat senator, and several Democrat congresscritters. We have a saying here: "North means mountains to the left. South means mountains to the right. East and West are where liberals come from." And they have come, and they're taking over. My county is still safely red, but I don't know for how long.
I disagree that the race tightening was due to Rush. This will be a nailbiter no matter what.
I wouldn’t put too much trust in these early numbers.
By November, gasoline could be hitting the $4.00/gal mark and associated increases in food, utilities, goods and services will continue.
Those prices will impact consumers who may feel pinched by those prices. If so, they will vote with their pocketbooks; they will vote for ‘change’. And that is not good news for any GOP candidate.
[The excuse that the Dems have the Congress won’t fly. They have only been in the majority 2 years. The GOP had control for 12 years in the House and over half-a-decade in the Senate. The GOP expects to lose more House and Senate seats in November. McCain has an uphill battle, and economics is not his strong suit.]
I am glad your have opinions. Unfortunately the observed data does not back that opinion up. McCain was going to get slaughtered 60 days ago.
Everyone is forgetting that Obama is popular with the (very) leftist Dems, but will scare all the swing voters into the R column.
I think that forcast has more to do with your personal political opposition to McCain then objective consideration of the facts.
BTW, Gas will be selling for less per gallon national on Nov 1st then it is right now. Care to make a bet on it?
I noticed that this poll does not distinguish between Clinton and Obama. It seems to assume that whomever is the Democratic nominee is irrelevant to how many Electoral Votes the Democrats will get in November. That makes this poll flawed.
No matter what happens between now and November, these are the only states that matter, REGARDLESS of who the nominees are:
Leans Democratic: Iowa (7), Michigan (17), New Mexico (5),
Pennsylvania (21) and Wisconsin (10).
Toss-Up: Colorado (9), Nevada (5), New Hampshire (4), and Ohio (20).
Leans Republican: Florida (27), Missouri (11), Virginia (13).
If Hillary was the nominee, I think she would absolutely win all of the Democratic “Lean” states, although McCain might give her a run for her money in New Mexico.
Therefore, she would only need 10 electoral votes from the “Toss-up” states to win. Since she has such a strong following in Ohio, I doubt McCain could beat her there, even though he polls fairly even with her there. She wouldn’t even need CO, NV, or NH to win. Case closed. Game over. She might even give McCain a run for his money in MO.
If Obama is the nominee, I see him taking all the “Democratic Lean” states with ease, except for Pennsylvania, which would be a “Toss-Up” state if he is the nominee. As for the “Toss-Up” states, I see Obama winning Colorado easily, but McCain winning Nevada and Ohio handily. McCain cleans Obama’s clock in Florida & Missouri — and let’s just say, for the sake of argument, Obama makes Virginia close, and we put Virginia as a “Toss-Up” state.
Assuming my analysis is correct, and I think it is pretty objective, an Obama candidacy dramatically shifts the battleground in McCain’s favor. Obama loses a “Democratic Lean” state in PA; he loses a “Toss-Up” state in OH and let’s say he gains a “Toss-Up” state in Virginia. Therefore, an Obama candidacy, minimally, is a 7 electoral vote gain for McCain, and puts PA in play.
There is absolutely no question that Hillary would be a stronger candidate than Obama in the general election. No question at all. And there is no reason either candidate needs to spend $1.00 in any state other than the 12 states listed above.
"This Balance of Power Calculator aggregates data from a variety of sources to provide a comprehensive assessment of the state-by-state race for the White House. Data inputs include the latest Rasmussen Reports poll in a state, an average of the latest polling from other firms, Rasmussen Markets data, Intrade market data, the aggregated rankings of selected analysts, the state’s voting history, and national party identification trends. The weight given to each variable will vary over time (i.e.—polls will be counted more heavily in October than today, a state’s history will be counted more heavily today than in October).
I think it all comes down to: 1.) what will the price of gasoline be after Labor Day and 2.) what will the unemployment rate be in October? If you know the answer, you'll know whether to bet the farm on McCain or leave the country.
By November gas will be hitting $4 a gallon you say??
Where do YOU live??
Gas is already hitting $5 in many places and likely could see $8.oo per gallon by November... especially if some Iran problems light up...
Liberals face an uphill battle too - to prove they’re not liberals. That’s why they’ve only held the WH twice since 1964. Two years after Watergate, Jimmy Carter barely won. Clinton won because he ran as a conservative - and because Perot took votes away from Bush I.
Telling voters you’re going to take more money out of their pocket in taxes isn’t a good economic policy either.
“The excuse that the Dems have the Congress won’t fly”
Even though the Dems are making things worse daily with their bad ideas, even though they are more responsible for things now than a GOP that hasnt been in power for a while, even though its the Dems who stopped ANWR drilling that could reduce gas prices, even though their ideas and policies are dreadful, we have to blame a party out-of-power for things the Dems are responsible for.
That makes sense (sarc).
“Those prices will impact consumers who may feel pinched by those prices. If so, they will vote with their pocketbooks; they will vote for ‘change’. And that is not good news for any GOP candidate.”
We have to fight this nonsense that gets the Dems off the hook. Obama has been in DC the last 4 years. Name a single stinkin idea he or any Dem came up with that would do a lick of good on this. He has none. He’s a empty suit with a socialist program.
“economics is not his strong suit.”
strong suit? When it comes to economics ... McCain’s got a low pair and Barack got a 10-high hand-of-nothing and bluffing.
At least mccain has got phil gramm’s advice on taxes and spending and health care, if he sticks with that, conservatives will be well-served.
“BTW, Gas will be selling for less per gallon national on Nov 1st then it is right now. Care to make a bet on it?”
Sure, but lest we forget ... it is PERCEPTION not reality that counts.
In 1992 Q4 the economy was coming back to life and roared along at 4%/annual growth. Yet Clinton won many voters on the ‘weak economy’ argument.
Its the economic conditions of this summer, and how the media can shape perceptions, that will determine the voting patterns in November.
I’d bet that a majority of Americans think, thanks to media hyperbole, that we are in a recession. In fact we were not in Q4 nor Q1 and the indicators are that we are through the rough patch due to foreclosures and subprime loans.
The media is in the tank big-time for Obama and will do EVERYTHING they can to depress us all about the economy, the world, and everything. Its worked, after all. See how everyone hates Bush... despite his turning around Iraq and putting that on a path to victory, etc.
The Republicans will win Colorada.
And if Obama is the nominee, Shaffer will take the Senate seat, a twofer.
Maybe I’m optimistic, but CO hasnt gone to the dogs yet. And McCain will do well with hispanics against Obama.
“Telling voters you’re going to take more money out of their pocket in taxes isn’t a good economic policy either.”
Good point. How many voters support his idea to repeal the Bush tax cuts and increase the capital gains tax significantly, and support Obama’s idea that its good even if it doesnt raise money, for ‘fairness’ reasons.
Who knows who will end up being the candidates from whom the levers are pulled come this November? Between the cup and the lips is a walk of many leagues, sometimes.
OK, I’ll help a Freeper out. Gas prices will be lower Oct 1st then they are right now. Our annual Gas prices spikes have much more to do with summer season increases in demand and summer EPA regulations then anything else. Those regulations go off Sept 15th and demand will have seriously slumped. Baring any sort of unforeseen change in circumstances (War with Iran, Major Hurricane hitting the Gulf Coast near Huston in Sept etc) the gas price will be down in Oct-Nov 2008 from where it is right now.
From your mouth to God’s ear. This year is a nightmare no matter who wins. While some choices are less bad, all are bad
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