Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

The Incredible Shrinking Republican Base
Real Clear Politics ^ | May 2nd, 2008 | Alan Abramowitz

Posted on 05/02/2008 11:04:35 AM PDT by The_Republican

Discussions of the current political situation and comparisons between the 2008 election and earlier contests frequently overlook a crucial fact. As a result of changes in American society, today's electorate is very different from the electorate of twenty, thirty, or forty years ago. Three long-term trends have been especially significant in this regard: increasing racial diversity, declining rates of marriage, and changes in religious beliefs. As a result of these trends, today's voters are less likely to be white, less likely to be married, and less likely to consider themselves Christians than voters of just a few decades ago.

The combined impact of these trends on the composition of the electorate has been dramatic. Married white Christians now make up less than half of all voters in the United States and less than one fifth of voters under the age of 30. The declining proportion of married white Christians in the electorate has important political implications because in recent years married white Christians have been among the most loyal supporters of the Republican Party. In American politics today, whether you are a married white Christian is a much stronger predictor of your political preferences than your gender or your class -- the two demographic characteristics that dominate much of the debate on contemporary American politics.

Figure 1 displays the trends in the proportions of whites, married persons, and Christian identifiers in the U.S. electorate over the past half century according to data from the American National Election Studies.


(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 110th; doom; gop; gopdwindlingbase; mccain; republicanbase; rnc; screwed
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-32 last
To: jalisco555

This ignores the fact that mostly conservative white Republicans are having children while liberals are not.


21 posted on 05/02/2008 2:31:31 PM PDT by WashingtonSource
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: retr0
Long live the American Conservative Party.

A party for both less government and less government spending. We cannot borrow our way to prosperity.

22 posted on 05/02/2008 3:01:38 PM PDT by Doe Eyes
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: The_Republican

I completely agree the country has gone far too left and unless we allow one of their “demons” to be in charge, they will NEVER see the evil these “people” truly represent.

We can recover from 4 years of hill (if she even lasts that long. That woman can’t obey nor uphold ANY law).

2012 will be the YEAR CONSERVATIVES CAME BACK.

That’s right, I said came back. Look how many people on FR are too afraid of hill that they are willing to sell their souls (actually, they say “hold their nose”)because they vote from fear.


23 posted on 05/02/2008 3:02:15 PM PDT by NoGrayZone (A Lesser Evil Is Still Evil.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: rarestia

Nope! =)


24 posted on 05/02/2008 3:04:06 PM PDT by NoGrayZone (A Lesser Evil Is Still Evil.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

To: The_Republican

This is just the most recent attempt by the GOP to use propaganda to convince conservatives that they must vote for McAmnesty.

As for me, my principles are still intact and I intend to honor them by writing in the name of a conservative for President and doing my best to see that actual conservatives are elected in downstream races.


25 posted on 05/02/2008 3:44:37 PM PDT by SoConPubbie (GOP: If you reward bad behavior all you get is more bad behavior.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SoConPubbie

Yeah, winning is overrated. Suicidal Principles is where the Truth at!!! Go write-in candidate!!!


26 posted on 05/02/2008 3:48:41 PM PDT by The_Republican (Ovaries of the World Unite! Rush, Laura, Ann, Greta - Time for the Ovulation!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 25 | View Replies]

To: The_Republican

The Rockefeller/Danforth/Snowe/McCain/Martinez/Whitman pubbies must be celebrating.


27 posted on 05/02/2008 4:12:32 PM PDT by fetal heart beats by 21st day (Defending human life is not a federalist issue. It is the business of all of humanity.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: The_Republican

“Discussions of the current political situation and comparisons between the 2008 election and earlier contests frequently overlook a crucial fact. As a result of changes in American society, today’s electorate is very different from the electorate of twenty, thirty, or forty years ago”

I didn’t “overlook” these facts, in some previous postings to FR.
A sample:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1952509/posts?page=33#33

- John


28 posted on 05/02/2008 8:05:40 PM PDT by Fishrrman
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: The_Republican
Yeah, winning is overrated. Suicidal Principles is where the Truth at!!! Go write-in candidate!!!

You still don't get it do you?

This is a conservative site, not a GOP site. We fight for conservative issues first and then the GOP and their candidates if they are conservative, period.

Furthermore, winning with McCain isn't all it is cracked up to be.

If he wins, he will grant Amnesty to 20-30 millon+ illegal aliens who reliably vot 70%+ Democrat, even after a Republican President, Ronald Reagan, granted them an amnesty in 1986.

This influx of Democrat voters into our electorate will erase the razor thin margins that the GOP has had in the last several election cycles.

Furthermore, because this action will likely by the last knife in the back that the majority of true conservatives will endure from John McCain and the GOP, this action will force millions of conservatives to either leave the party or simply check out of the process, thereby dooming the GOP to minority status for decades, or much worse, forcing the GOP to go the way of it's predecessor, the WHIGS. In other words, the GOP will disappear and something more honorable will take it's place.

John McCain is a loose-loose situation for the GOP.
29 posted on 05/02/2008 11:08:23 PM PDT by SoConPubbie (GOP: If you reward bad behavior all you get is more bad behavior.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 26 | View Replies]

To: SoConPubbie

Good thinin Babba Louis!

And the sooner the better. Kill the sick corrupt elephant now. It’s too far gone to save it.

I was hoping Dr. Dobson was going to do it a few months ago but he pulled back ... or chickened out. He could have done it. Twenty million chiristians would drop the GOP like a hot potato if Dobson formed a strong coalition and put up some real conservative candidates instead of silly old fools like McQueeg.

The pubby party is a laughing stock and a disgrace. I won’t even bother to vote for prez this year. No point. I actually think McQueeg is a stealth Rat anyway. Everybody thinks he’ll appoint good judges. Why? Anybody who wants to open our borders up to the Mexican invasion and close Gitmo and rape free speech as MCCain Feingold did ....will put Rat judges on the bench as well.

“But he’ll do the right thing by our military and keep up our national defense.”

Oh really? Maybe he will but its a crapshoot. The senile old bat could do anything at any time. He is not competent to be POTUS.


30 posted on 05/02/2008 11:28:46 PM PDT by gost2
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 29 | View Replies]

To: SoConPubbie

Preach it, brother!


31 posted on 05/03/2008 2:49:52 AM PDT by AmericanInTokyo (Voting 4 McCain? If He Wins, I Dont Want To Hear Your B*tching For 4 Years About His RINO Policies)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 29 | View Replies]

To: SoConPubbie

Clearly, YOU don’t get it. With A Republican, you get 65% of what you want. With socialists/commies like HRC or BHO, you get closer to 0. Which part of that is unclear? From another SoConRepublican


32 posted on 05/03/2008 6:47:18 AM PDT by NYC Republican (John McCain- Snatching Defeat from the Jaws of Victory...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 29 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-32 last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson