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The Ultimate, Inside Baseball – the 2008 Democrat Convention
Special to FreeRepublic ^ | 19 April 2008 | John Armor (Congressman Billybob)

Posted on 04/19/2008 8:05:01 AM PDT by Congressman Billybob

You may be unfamiliar with the website, Politico. It is popular on the Internet, but only with political junkies. People who want to read stories about the inside baseball of politics, the little steps behind the scenes which wind up controlling the visible, public results. If you find that subject as dull as ditch water, skip this column. Otherwise, read on.

Today (19 April) Politico ran an article by Avi Zenilman, entitled “The Dean 25 could decide Clinton's fate.” The article points out that the Credentials Committee of the Democrat National Convention will first get the issues of seating the Florida and Michigan delegations. (In case you forgot, Florida and Michigan both violated Democrat National Committee rules by setting their primaries too early. Only Hillary Clinton was on the Michigan ballot. None of the Democrat candidates campaigned in either state.)

The DNC penalty for these states’ violations was to declare, in advance, that their delegates would not be seated at the Convention. Are you with me so far?

The Credentials Committee has 186 members, of whom 161 are chosen based on the primary and caucus results in the various states, and 25 are appointed by Howard Dean, former candidate for President himself (remember the Dean Scream after Iowa in 2004?). Zenilman’s article then states that it is “virtually impossible for Clinton to win enough of the 161 members” to have a majority in her favor. He also writes that it is “highly unlikely” that Barack Obama will get majority control of the Credentials Committee, either.

Lastly he points out that the 25 Dean appointees to the Committee will dominate the majority on the Committee. Therefore, they will control the Committee’s conclusion about seating some kind of Florida and Michigan delegates.

Without going into chapter and verse, I agree with all those statements and conclusions. It is only his final conclusion, that the Dean 25 therefore have the election fate of Hillary Clinton in their hands, which is flat-out wrong. There have been numerous articles in the Mainstream Media with the same conclusion. Because Politico is a student of inside baseball in politics, I expected they would get this story right. They did not.

As a former parliamentarian for a national political convention, and participant in quite a few other political conventions, I can describe how the delegate seating process actually works:

All delegates whose elections or appointments are not contested, are seated. Disputes over any delegation or individual are submitted to the Credentials Committee. Meanwhile, the main Convention, through its non-contested delegates, chooses its officers and sets its rules of operation.

In due course, the Credentials Committee reports its conclusions about disputed delegates or delegations to the floor of the Convention. The essential point is, however, that the Committee decision is not final. The Convention must act on those proposals. It can accept or reject them, do what the Committee recommends, or do the exact opposite.

So, it does not matter who controls the Credentials Committee. It only matters who controls the floor of the Convention.

Whoever has the majority of the votes on the floor BEFORE the Michigan and Florida issues come to the floor, will still have the majority AFTER those issues are decided. If the Credentials Committee recommends any alternative which would reverse the existing majority on the floor, its recommendation will be rejected. Anyone who doubts this need only read the history of the 1968 Democrat Convention in Chicago. It refused to seat the entire, elected Mississippi delegation, and seated in their place a group of citizens from Mississippi who were more politically correct, in the eyes of the Convention.

In 2008, this is hardball politics at its highest. Unless Hillary Clinton both wins Pennsylvania strongly, and then pulls a highly unlikely upset in North Carolina, Barack Obama will go to the Democrat Convention with a majority of the uncontested delegates (not counting Florida or Michigan). Therefore, the “compromise” his delegates on the floor will allow for those two states will be to divide those delegates between him and Clinton so his majority remains intact.

There is only one number you should watch to know the outcome, committed delegates going into the Convention (not counting Florida and Michigan). That number by itself will tell you who will be the Democrat nominee for President. All the rest is smoke and mirrors as the press, and the likely loser Hillary Clinton, try to pretend otherwise.

- 30 -

About the Author: John Armor practiced in the US Supreme Court for 33 years. John_Armor@aya.yale.edu He is running for the 11th Congressional District of North Carolina. - 30 -


TOPICS: Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2008dncconvention; fla; hillaryclinton; mi; obama
Commenting on a thread on FR on this subject earlier today made me decide to turn this obscure but important subject into this week's column. Don't be had by the MSM when they breathlessly proclaim that this will be "decided in the Credentials Committee." Nothing is ever decided in that Committee, if the floor of the Convention disagrees.

John / Billybob

1 posted on 04/19/2008 8:05:02 AM PDT by Congressman Billybob
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To: Congressman Billybob; shield; LS
The Clinton machine is vindictive. If she loses, the Clintons will undermine Obama; if she wins, the Obamaites will either stay home or vote for Nader - either way the GOP wins.

Again, I have issues with McCain, but he's much more preferable than either of the two of them.

2 posted on 04/19/2008 8:10:20 AM PDT by Perdogg (Reagan would have never said "She's my girl")
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To: Congressman Billybob

So don’t leave us in suspense. Who will control the floor of the convention?


3 posted on 04/19/2008 8:12:19 AM PDT by ProtectOurFreedom
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To: Congressman Billybob

I’m already stocking up on popcorn.


4 posted on 04/19/2008 8:15:18 AM PDT by big'ol_freeper ("Preach the Gospel always, and when necessary use words". ~ St. Francis of Assisi)
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To: Congressman Billybob

Dean is lucky dueling went out of style. Alexander Hamilton died in duel for those kinds of manipulations of a presidential election.


5 posted on 04/19/2008 8:15:29 AM PDT by Paleo Conservative
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To: Congressman Billybob

Thank you so much for your insight. Your vast wisdom on this topic is a blessing to all.


6 posted on 04/19/2008 8:16:05 AM PDT by kublia khan (Absolute war brings total victory)
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To: Congressman Billybob

Well, I couldn’t have written what you just wrote, not being an aficionado of “inside baseball” or a respecter of its “infallibility”, or the opinions of “experts” who so often happen to be wrong, in long-forgotten retrospect, but I can only tell you what I’ve been saying in numerous other threads for the last two months , even at the peak of the Obama surge, before Wright, his wife, Reszko, the Ayers connection, lapel pins, bitterness, etc. or anything else, began tarnishing his image, that HILLARY will be the Dem nominee. However that works out via delegates, superdelegates, projected popular vote, or visions seen in the smoke of smoke-filled rooms, Hillary will get it.
Whatever visions of tumult might be expected at a brokered Convention, Hillary will get it. AND THEN maybe we will have Obama as the chosen Veep runningmate. To my mind, that’s 50/50 right now.


7 posted on 04/19/2008 8:17:00 AM PDT by supremedoctrine ("Pain is weakness leaving your body"---U S MARINES)
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To: ProtectOurFreedom
As I say in my article, unless Hillary has a strong win in Pennsylvania and an upset win in North Carolina, Obama will have the control at the Convention. If Hillary loses in Pa., it's clearly over. If she wins narrowly, she can limp into the Tar Heel State, where we will teach her a solid lesson.

Even the media who are in the tank for Hillary will recognize, after North Carolina votes on 6 May, that it's all over. If Hillary tries to hang on after that, it will be like the last days of Generalissimo Francisco Franco. Each day his doctors removed a few more organs, but issued a bulletin that he was "still alive."

John / Billybob

8 posted on 04/19/2008 8:20:37 AM PDT by Congressman Billybob ( www.ArmorforCongress.com)
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To: ProtectOurFreedom
Who will control the floor of the convention?

The candidate who has the most seated non super-delegate votes

Someone correct me if I am wrong

9 posted on 04/19/2008 8:21:51 AM PDT by Popman (Typical bitter white male clinging to my religion and guns......................)
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To: supremedoctrine
You are sadly expecting Hillary's vindictiveness to carry her through. Vindictiveness needs a platform from which to act. Lady Macbeth had power only because Macbeth had an army.

I thoroughly agree with you about what she would do, if she could. I'm counting on her army to be visibly too weak. With too few troops, she will be forced to surrender, a la Napoleon.

I'm sure you would prefer that result. You just think she will rise from the dead one more time.

John / Billybob

10 posted on 04/19/2008 8:25:40 AM PDT by Congressman Billybob ( www.ArmorforCongress.com)
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To: Perdogg

Yeah, it’s apparent that ONLY this scenario could have elected McCain this year. Sort of like drawing the Italian Army in the first round of the WW II playoffs.


11 posted on 04/19/2008 8:27:08 AM PDT by LS (CNN is the Amtrak of News)
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To: Congressman Billybob
Don't be had by the MSM when they breathlessly proclaim that this will be "decided in the Credentials Committee."

For a media so invested in placing a Dem in the White House... the DBM devotes little or no time in fully explaining this part of the process. One thing is certain. If Obama is denied the nomination... no amount of belated explanation will stave off the riots.

12 posted on 04/19/2008 8:27:12 AM PDT by johnny7
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To: Congressman Billybob

Thanks a lot for the explanation, it’s really helpful.


13 posted on 04/19/2008 8:49:55 AM PDT by modhom
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To: Congressman Billybob
The rat convention will be sooooooooo much fun to watch. I keep thinking of the line from the old CSN song “By the time we got to Woodstock, we were half a million strong.”
There will be scumbags wearing ties inside and scumbags wearing tie-dyes outside. Paisley dresses and hairy armpits will be swaying in the marijuana smoke filled wind.
14 posted on 04/19/2008 9:10:49 AM PDT by jmaroneps37 (Conservatives live in the truth. Liberals live in lies.)
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To: Congressman Billybob
I read the article in question and think you might have drawn an incorrect inference. No where does it say the issue "will be" decided by the Crednetials Committee, it says only that they will be part of the process.

"The Credentials Committee...is the 186-member body that will help determine whether to seat the two rogue delegations."

"...the Dean 25 are in a position to hold the balance of power on a procedural matter that could play a pivotal role in deciding the Democratic presidential nomination."

I believe what the author is saying is that with Dean controlling the "balance of power" that he will make sure the issue of seating these delegates never gets out of this committee or if it does the recommendation will be one that doesn't change the status quo.

Either way, Hillary loses and in a way it does control her fate.

15 posted on 04/19/2008 9:23:52 AM PDT by Bob J ("For every 1000 hacking at the branches of evil, one is striking at it's root.")
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To: Popman
Actually, the Convention floor will be controlled by whoever has the most committed delegates, including superdelegates. A month ago, it looked possible for Hillary to pull it out by making up the Obama edge in elected delegates with her superdelegates. Now, enough of the supers have declared for Obama, that that ploy by Hillary has been shut off.

One by one, the Hillary possibilities have been closed off. My point in writing this was to point out that the Credentials Committee ploy won't work, because the Committee does not have the final say.

John / Billybob

16 posted on 04/19/2008 9:33:08 AM PDT by Congressman Billybob ( www.ArmorforCongress.com)
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To: Bob J
Your next-to-last line is what I think will happen.

Dean knows that a grudge match to the death on the floor of the Convention is the worst possible outcome for the Democrat Party. Therefore, I agree with you that he'll try to engineer a solution in the Committee that “does not change the status quo.”

That means if Florida and Michigan are whacked in half, and half plus five are given to Hillary with the rest to Obama, it would not change the status quo. But it would be enough of a sop to Hillary that she couldn't claim (in public, at least) that she was robbed.

In private, however, there will be a storm of obscenities and flying ashtrays. But that's another matter.

John / Billybob

17 posted on 04/19/2008 9:39:21 AM PDT by Congressman Billybob ( www.ArmorforCongress.com)
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To: Congressman Billybob

Nice article. BTTT.


18 posted on 04/19/2008 12:57:37 PM PDT by conservatism_IS_compassion (The Democratic Party is only a front for the political establishment in America - Big Journalism.)
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To: Congressman Billybob; Spktyr; SmithL; DeFault User; PGalt; conservatism_IS_compassion; CPT Clay; ...
Armor for Congress PING!


John Armor for Congress

John Armor on YouTube

Freepmail or ping me on the thread to be added to the John Armor for Congress ping list.


19 posted on 04/19/2008 7:12:37 PM PDT by MitchellC (Thomas Sowell: 'I will be delighted.. if someone with such views gets elected.' ArmorforCongress.com)
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