Posted on 04/14/2008 10:54:28 AM PDT by NormsRevenge
California - land of sun, beaches and earthquakes - faces an almost certain risk of being rocked by a strong temblor by 2037, scientists said Monday in the first statewide forecast of the seismic threat.
New calculations reveal there is a 99.7 percent chance a magnitude 6.7 quake or larger will hit the Golden State in the next 30 years. The odds of such an event are higher in Southern California than Northern California, 97 percent versus 93 percent.
The last time a jolt this size rattled California was the 1994 Northridge disaster, which killed 72 people, injured more than 9,000 and caused $25 billion in damage.
"It basically guarantees it's going to happen," said Ned Field, a seismologist with the U.S. Geological Survey in Pasadena and lead author of the report.
Despite the new results, scientists still cannot predict exactly where in the state such a quake will occur or when. But they say it should be a wake-up call for residents to prepare for a natural disaster in earthquake country.
"A big earthquake can happen tomorrow or it can happen 10 years from now," said Tom Jordan, director of the Southern California Earthquake Center at the University of Southern California, who was part of the research.
California is one of the most seismically active regions in the world. More than 300 faults crisscross the state, which sits atop two of Earth's major tectonic plates, the Pacific and North American plates. About 10,000 quakes each year rattle Southern California alone, although most of them are too small to be felt.
Knowing the likelihood of a strong earthquake is the first step in allowing scientists to draw up hazard maps that show the severity of ground shaking to an area. The information can also help with updating building codes and emergency plans and setting earthquake insurance rates.
The latest analysis is the first comprehensive effort by the USGS, SCEC and California Geological Survey to calculate earthquake probabilities for the entire state using newly available data. Previous quake probabilities focused on specific regions and used various methodologies that made it difficult to compare.
In the study, researchers computed the likelihood of a fault rupture using new information about where past quakes have struck, location of hard-to-spot faults and their slip rates as well as satellite-based GPS data of the Earth's crustal movement.
Scientists determined a Northridge-size shock occurs on average once every five years. The chance of a temblor that size striking the Los Angeles Basin is 67 percent compared to 63 percent for the San Francisco Bay Area. The San Francisco figure is similar to a 2003 analysis that put the probability at 62 percent. There is no past comparison that exists for Los Angeles.
Given California's seismic history, the new results should come as no surprise, said David Schwartz, a USGS geologist in Menlo Park who was not part of the study.
Researchers also calculated the statewide probabilities for larger temblors over the same time period. Among their findings: There is a 94 percent chance of a magnitude 7 shock or higher; a 46 percent chance of a magnitude 7.5 and a 4.5 percent chance of a magnitude 8.
Of all the faults in the state, the southern San Andreas, which runs from Parkfield to the Salton Sea, appears most primed to break, scientists found. There is a 59 percent chance in the next three decades that a Northridge-size quake will occur on the fault compared to 21 percent for the northern section.
The northern San Andreas produced the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, a recent disaster in geologic time compared to the southernmost segment, which has not popped in more than three centuries.
Scientists are also concerned about the Hayward and San Jacinto faults, which have a 31 percent chance of producing a Northridge-size temblor in the next 30 years. The Hayward fault runs through densely populated cities in the San Francisco Bay Area. The San Jacinto fault bisects the fast-growing city of San Bernardino.
just a fwiw.
Make sure your survival packs and supplies are OK.
Expect delays in any rescue or humanitarian efforts and plan for minimum of 72 hours on your own, at least.
Here I thought global warming was supposed to kill us all first.
“yawn!”
experts have been saying this since the 60’s... still waiting...
Volcanic arcs and oceanic trenches partly encircling the Pacific Basin form the so-called Ring of Fire, a zone of frequent earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. The trenches are shown in blue-green. The volcanic island arcs, although not labelled, are parallel to, and always landward of, the trenches. For example, the island arc associated with the Aleutian Trench is represented by the long chain of volcanoes that make up the Aleutian Islands.
Extend it out another 20 years and make it 100%.
Oh please tell me they didn’t spend a whole crapload of taxpayer money to figure this out
IIRC this came out in the early 70’s:
“DAY AFTER DAY
(Tommy Reynolds / Stuart Margolin / Jerry Riopelle)
Shango
Day after day, more people come to L.A.
Ssh! Don’t you tell anybody the whole place is slipping away.
Where can we go when there’s no San Francisco?
Ssh! Better get ready to tie up the boat in Idaho.
Do you know the swim? You better learn quick, Jim.
Those who don’t know how to swim, better sing the hymn.
Tuna at the bowl. Fine fillet o’ much soul.
Whoo! Whoo! What can we do with a bushel of wet gold?
Day after day, more people come to L.A.
Ssh! Don’t you tell anybody the whole place is slipping away.
Where can we go when there’s no San Francisco?
Ssh! Better get ready to tie up the boat in Idaho.
Where can we go when there’s no San Diego?
Ssh! Better get ready to tie up the boat in Idaho.
Do you know the swim? You better learn quick, Jim.
Those who don’t know how to swim, better sing the hymn.
Tuna at the bowl. Fine fillet o’ much soul.
Whoo! Whoo! What can we do with a bushel of wet gold?
Day after day, more people come to L.A.
Ssh! Don’t you tell anybody the whole place is slipping away.
Where can we go when there’s no San Francisco?
Ssh! Better get ready to tie up the boat in Idaho.
Better get ready to tie up the boat in Idaho
(repeat to fade)”
Eli Stone would have told them for free!
mexicans can’t get a break. right after they finally get california back, a giant earthquake will destroy it. /s
lol.. Thanks!
when I was a child, I remember popular science or some such mag showing a pic of cars running off the wreck of the golden gate bridge warning us about the big one.
that was a long, long time ago.
No, see, global warming causes glaciers to melt, which puts more pressure and weight on the tectonic plates, which causes earthquakes.
http://news.mongabay.com/2006/0628-earthquakes.html
So when the next quake hits, we can all kick ourselves for not having driven hybrid cars.
CA is the HQ of the envirowackos. A LOT of people there have a LOT invested in global warming. Right now there's a big fight to keep up the scam. Even this report could be an attempt to prop up the general atmosphere of fear-hype.
Yeah, and we all know where that bear on the California flag goes poop.
do you mean it’s time to put out a call for Captain Obvious?
Send my research money right away. I need to pay my taxes.
Then I’d go and become the mayor of Otisburg.
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