Posted on 04/14/2008 12:01:49 AM PDT by Dawnsblood
Obama's Electoral College problem is that his strongest states, where he runs better than Clinton, are states where the Democrats are still likely to lose, though maybe a bit less decisively with Obama at the top of the ticket. These states include deep South states with high African American percentages of the population: Georgia, Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, South Carolina, and North Carolina, and some central and western states with very few black voters: Nebraska, Kansas, Montana, Alaska, and the Dakotas. Losing a state by 10% rather than 20% still collects zero Electoral College votes. On the other hand, Obama is running ahead of Clinton in some states the Democrats have been winning regularly of late: Oregon, Washington, Vermont, Maine, Hawaii, and Maryland, which adds no Electoral College votes to the Party's count. In general, Obama is running better among white voters in states with few black voters, and worse than Clinton among white voters in states with higher percentages of blacks.
The sociologists can opine on what that means, but the Electoral College math shows this: the most competitive of the large swing states -- Ohio (4% margin for Bush in 2000, 2% for Bush in 2004), Michigan (5% Gore win in 2000, 3% Kerry win in 2004), Pennsylvania (5% Gore win in 2000, 2% Kerry win in 2004), and Florida (tie in 2000, 5% Bush win in 2004) -- are all states where Clinton is more competitive with McCain than Obama is with McCain at the moment (though Rasmussen has Obama a bit closer in Florida, differing from all other surveys of that state).
Clinton's long-shot bid for the nomination depends on convincing superdelegates that she can win in November and Obama cannot. If McCain wins by 8% , it will not matter who his opponent is -- he will likely win all the close states. But if we get another 3% or narrower popular vote contest, then Clinton has an argument based on her strength in the competitive Electoral College states, versus Obama's relative strength in non-competitive states.
Actually I think they’re starting to crack. Some of my more liberal acquantances are starting to get reallly really angry. At the world. I believe they’re starting to realize that they’ll lose again. And it *really* burns them.
Problem is that kind carries a grudge forever, and they’re so angry after last eight years. I’m afraid even if they lose we’ll hear just louder yelling and screaming. But that doesn’t mean you let the little child have the candy bar for having a tantrum...
bump & a ping
Now that OBama has made it clear for everyone to see that he is as elitist as the Clintons are, they are realizing just how duped they have been. Even in his “apology”, he can’t see that it’s the way he looks down on “we the little people” that is the reason for the recent “small town, bitter” firestorm. He’s still “standing by” the sentiment of his statements - but that sentiment has nothing to do with “bitter” but with how these “elites” look down upon us “rubes”
Demodog train wreck coming up... inspired by their elitist “superdelegate” system, their cultivation of divisiveness, and the front loading of the primaries.
If mccain runs a great campaign the dims will wish mcgovern was running. If he doesn’t, who knows.
Mccain has to go negative in a big way, go after wright, the flag, the lapel pin, che, bitter, rezko, the terrorists in chicago, the most liberal voting record in the senate, cocaine, his wife, the list is nearly endless and if he talks about what a disaster obama will be we win 47 states.
Unforunately mccain wants to win a different way and i don’t think he has it in him.
IMO neither of them will make the kind of changes they have been suspected to be ready to make.
Obama was at one point saying he would bring all troops home from Iraq right away. Lately he states he couldn’t do so. Hillary says the same thing. Reality is a bitch, and these two have been yanked back into it with regard to the WOT.
We can’t pull out and they know it. As the summer goes along, they’re going to be educated about why you can’t meet with terrorists and elevate their importance on the world stage.
When a statesman meets with a terrorist, the terrorist is immediately elevated to the level of a statesman. Meeting with leaders from terrorist states, simply legitimizes them as a world class leader.
Not no, but hell no...
I will bet you anything that the one change Obama would make is to be sure we get affirmative action run amuck.
That will be the defining test for Supreme nominations: "Do you believe in affirmative action?" If the answer is in any way wishy-washy -- go to the back of the line.
Of course, along with that comes all sorts of liberal nonsense. A "living constitution", he11, the document is going to rise up and turn 180 degrees from the words written on the page.
I.e., Obama only does well with those unfamiliar with his Black Liberation ideology.
And Pubbies are jumping for joy with McCain? Johnny Mac continues to allude to policies that will be bad for this country: amnesty (when the border governors "certify" their borders are secure), cap and trade to "limit" our CO2 emissions.
The major difference between the Dem & Rep nominees is the stance on Iraq. Other than that, not much.
Look Dave, I dislike Ted Kennedy. I’m sure you do to. Like me you have noticed what Ted has done over the years, and you dispise him for it. Isn’t that the yardstick we should use? I always thought so, but now I’m being told that type of yardstick isn’t valid any longer.
Look at my tagline. Am I not supposed to judge McCain by the same yardstick we have judged everyone else with?
How can you and others come to me talking about SCOTUS nominations in the future, as if John has one leg to stand on in that area?
I appreciate your comments, but I am baffled by the ultimate logic once you size McCain up on the same subject.
It was not Obama who was selling US Missle Tech to the Chinese Commies in exchange for Illegeal campaign contributions in 1995-96. Better naieve inept Obama who we can beat like a drum legislative then corrupt, evil Clinton inc that has shown it sell far to able to do all the wrong things and get away with it.
That is the only ray of hope with a Barry presidency. He is utterly inept.
The fact that Whitey has not heard good preaching for a generation is no reason to tout Barry's speechifying.
if your tagline says it all, that is your choice...don’t vote for McCain...you can just live with even more Liberal policy for the next 4-8 years with Obama or Hillary. If I’m voting for a dog, I’ll vote for my dog knowing that it’s bite isn’t as bad....
All are equal, but some are more equal than others in both parties.
>> If I had a vote, between the two, I’d also go with Hillary.
...but then I think about Billy Jeff prancing around the white house in his boxer shorts and generally trampling on sacred ground and making a mess of my country, and...
Faced with this choice, I’d probably just use the chad-poker thingie to give myself a lobotomy, instead of voting for either one.
Obama will do even worse than Carter to our economy and foreign affairs.
By the end of his first and only term, that will be our opportunity to take back the GOP and pull it back across the line to the right side again.
The Carter years were painful, but they did anger the public enough to wise up and elect a real statesman like Ronald Reagan. The resulting economic boom even carried through most of BJ’s two terms. Taxes can be undone and the legislature can fix most any stupidity that an incompetent fool like Obama could ever create.
America needs to wake up from it’s coma and learn what reality is in regards to the fairy tale of Socialistic Utopia. The public education system has brainwashed a lot of our children, but when they wake up in the real world, they will see how much of a lie it truly is. That can and will play into our greatest advantage.
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