Posted on 03/24/2008 9:47:40 AM PDT by ReagansRaiders
No Bolling For Governor?
Reports Say Lieutenant Governor Won't Run For Top Job By Associated Press
Monday, March 24, 2008
RICHMOND, Va. (AP) - Lieutenant Governor Bill Bolling will seek re-election next year, two people familiar with his campaign said.
Bolling intends to announce his plans in an early afternoon Capitol Square news conference.
Bolling's decision not to run for governor combined with former Governor George Allen's announcement to sit out the governor's race leaves Attorney General Bob McDonnell uncontested for the Republican nomination.
The election, still 20 months away, finds Democrats Brian Moran, a Delegate from Alexandria, and state Senator Creigh Deeds of Bath County jockeying for their party's nomination.
PING!!!!!!!!
Virginia ping. Is it 2009 already?
This is good news. Now if both McDonnell and Bolling can run good campaigns next year and don’t get tripped up like George Allen did, we may actually have a chance, and again in 2013.
I don't think so. In 2001, the VAGOP ran the sitting AG, Mark Earley, for Governor, and he lost. Freepers here said Mark Warner's election was a "fluke" and not to worry because the new AG, Jerry Kilgore was a "much better" candidate and a surefire winner for 2005. So in 2005 the VAGOP tried running the new sitting AG for Governor, Jerry Kilgore, and he lost too. Now we're told that the latest AG, Bob McDonnell, is a great candidate for Governor in 2009.
You'd think after two losses in a row in a "safe state", the VAGOP would consider running someone besides one-term A.G.'s as their nominee for Governor. It clearly ain't working.
Couple of suggestions: 1) Abolish that idiotic "one term only" rule in VA (I'm a supporter of term limits, but telling someone they can only get four years to run the state is really silly. Try limiting them to 2 or 3 terms instead)
2) Run a really popular beloved official in the state, not someone who's main claim to fame is having a sole term as AG like Earley and Kilgore.
3) Make sure the GOP candidate campaigns like he WANTS the job.
The governor can’t succeed himself but other state offices can?
No, P8riot is right. This is good news. And the lefty blogs are already nervous about it because ~at this time~ they’re heading for a contentious primary battle.
Fact is that both Earley and Kilgore ran poor campaigns. Earley didn’t have the fire and Kilgore imploded by focusing on Kaine’s negatives and not his own positives.
With George Allen bowing out for next year, our choices remain McDonnell or Bolling. Avoiding a primary battle is the best thing that could happen.
And the fact is, that Virginia was never demographically “safe” in anything except the Presidential race. Power in the Executive Mansion has shifted every 2-3 terms since 1971.
I agree that the term limit is ridiculous. It comes up every General Assembly session, but rarely gets anywhere.
And sadly, we don’t have a “beloved” official to run. But rest assured, McDonnell has wanted this a long long time.
That's correct.
Maybe Virginians ought to hope a Democrat is elected president as that seems to be the only time the state elects a GOP governor. Hasn’t that been the pattern since 1977?
If the Dems take control of the other house of the legislature will they push to eliminate the one term limit? If M. Warner could have run again I assume he would have won easily.
Yes, that’s technically been the “pattern.” But since Virginia had no post-Reconstruction Governors (with a possible exception in the late 1800s) through 1969 when Linwood Holton was elected, I’m not sure how “accurate” that pattern is.
I haven’t followed it that closely, but I believe the two-term Governor usually gets defeated by the party in power.
Is Kaine considered popular? Sounds like the Dems point to him as another “moderate” who could win nationally but I don’t hear good things about him from conservatives.
I think McDonnell spoke at CPAC though I was not able to hear him. He seems to be well regarded by conservatives. I hope he can do better than the two previous GOP nominees have done.
I believe Kaine is less popular than Mark Warner. He’s also more liberal. Neither are “moderate.”
Brian Moran to run for governor. Is he the son of the creepy Rep Jim Moran?
Younger brother.
This is good news because it avoids a repeat of 2001. If the Lt Gov and AG form a circular firing squad as they did then, we can kiss the office goodbye. Kaine benefitted in ‘05 because he was inheriting the office from an (inexplicably) popular incumbent rodent. The Dems are at a disadvantage this time not having a statewide officeholder (or a high-profile candidate, a la Mark Warner) to run.
Sure wish the reason Allen was bowing out was that he was our candidate for President! :)
~sigh~
All I'm saying is that after two failed attempts to run one-term A.G.'s for Governor, you'd think the VAGOP would try something else. In other words, Bolling might have been the stronger candidate since he is the second-in-command of the state. That's how Kaine got himself elected. Using the A.G.'s office as a placeholder to be a "statewide" official and set yourself up to run for Governor in just four years doesn't seem to be working very well. IMO, McDonnell should have struck around a bit longer and endeared himself as a seasoned law enforcement official rather than doing what Earley and Kilgore did and jumped the gun to run for Governor. He will face inevitable comparisons to those two, even if he runs a much smart campaign.
But in any case, the decision has been made so it's all null now. Moran being related to the treasonous leftwing nut in Congress will hurt him more than it will help him, IMO. The GOP probably has a good chance of winning if he is the opponent. On the other hand, Deeds will probably be tough to beat, his website sounds as though he is casting himself as the heir apparent of Warner and Kaine, and probably using the same "sound like a reasonable and nonpartisan uniter during the campaign but govern to the far left after getting elected" model that Warner and Kaine used (and Barack Obama for that matter).
So I'd say the VAGOP governor's race is probably a tossup at this point. Let's hope McDonnell's learns from the mistakes of past campaigns and pull this off.
My guess is the GOP takes the Governor's office in '09 but is mainly elected as a backlash from Warner winning the U.S. Senate race this year and the state having two RAT Senators.
You have swift rises to the top job in VA because of the one-term law for Governor. You don't have people park themselves in the Lt Gov and Atty Gen offices for years on end like you do in many other states. Being Lt Governor means that while they're next in line to Governor, but it doesn't necessarily mean they have much power (indeed, Bolling has to contend with a hostile state Senate now). Attorney General probably has more power. I didn't have a preference as to which gentleman decided to run, only that we didn't have another Earley-Hager bloodbath. Had Hager, himself an upset winner in '97 for Lt Gov thanks to the coattails of Gilmore (due to George Allen), ran for a 2nd term in '01, he could've easily succeeded Earley in '05 and none of this Mark Warner/Tim Kaine business would've ever happened.
"My guess is the GOP takes the Governor's office in '09 but is mainly elected as a backlash from Warner winning the U.S. Senate race this year and the state having two RAT Senators."
If Obama wins the Presidency, I think it is an even bigger certainty that we retake it. Personally, I think Mark Warner is going to be swiftly bored in the Senate and will realize he probably should've opted to run for Governor again in '09 (I would not be surprised if he decides to run in '13, perhaps setting up a showdown between Warner and George Allen, if he finally decides to get back in the political pool). Webb, a vicious, disgusting little man, is going to be a one-term Senator as well, and I think we'll flush him out in '12, perhaps with Bolling or McDonnell taking him out (unless, again, Allen decides to seek a rematch, but I don't think Allen's forte was the Senate. At least two overwhelmingly popular ex-Governors saw their popularity sink like the Titanic in the Senate, that being both Robb & Allen, and I'll bet Mark Warner will follow suit. Had Allen knew how his Senate career would turn out, he'd have been better off running for the Governorship in '05 and then he'd probably be the Presidential nominee today).
Jim Gilmore was a one-term Attorney General when he was elected Governor.
What you don't seem to grasp is that with the one at a time limit on the Governorship and with Virginia's pattern of major elections every year (we vote for Congress, Senate and President with the rest of the country in even years. We vote for House of Delegates, State Senate and the three top offices in the odd years) there's not time for someone to wait in the wings.
And McDonnell and Bolling have both made names for themselves in the political landscape.
And the reality is that the election of both Warner and Kaine had less to do with their electability than it did with the GOP candidates poor campaigns. Likewise, as much as it pains me to admit it, Webb wasn't elected because he was the better candidate, but because the Allen campaign made mistakes from which they could not recover.
Mary Sue Terry waited through two terms as Attorney General and gave Doug Wilder the chance to be governor. She lost to George Allen in a landslide.
What you're continuing to miss here is that you cannot gage the Virginia political landscape by that of any other state. Unless you've lived here and worked in the trenches it's just not going to make sense.
Kaine's approval rating at the end of his term will not match Warner's. He may indeed end up being a liability rather than an asset to the Democratic ticket.
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