[Momaw Nadon]

Intrade.com is a futures market in which people bet on the outcomes of various things such as the results of elections.

According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2008 Presidential Election.

If the traders are correct, John McCain would receive 245 Electoral Votes and the Democratic Presidential candidate would receive 293 Electoral Votes.

If the weighted probabilities of John McCain winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then John McCain should get 249.73 Electoral Votes.

270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.

Opinions and commentary are welcome.

[Momaw Nadon]

Previous projections:

2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/17/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/10/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/3/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/25/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/18/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/11/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/4/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/7/2008

[Momaw Nadon]

[Momaw Nadon]

If you want on (or off) of the weekly InTrade Projected Presidential Electoral Vote ping list, please let me know via FREEPmail.

[wmfights]

Unfortunately it looks pretty accurate. I would only question In. and Mo. as being opptomistic for McCain. They tend to go to the winner.

Bottom line, it doesn't look good. In addition we have a very weak candidate. I just heard the first mention of the "Keating 5" this morning on Fox. It's only going to be a couple months before age starts getting mentioned and how the office of the Pres. is so tough and ages people.

McCain has been so busy courting the liberals the conservative base has no reason to get geared up other than who the Rat candidates are.

[mak5]

It depends on the Dem nominee. If it is Obama, give Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan to McCain.

[TomGuy]

An article on the Rasmussen website shows this, which doesn't bode well for GOP McCain:

On Sunday, the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral College Votes. Republicans are favored in states with 189 Votes (see recent daily results). New polling from Georgia and Arkansas had no impact on the projections.

Election 2008: Electoral College Update
Sunday, March 23, 2008

[Old Retired Army Guy]

This has Mc Cain matched up with “Democrat” (unnamed). Recnt polls show Mc Cain leading Obama in Ohio and PA, yet this scorecard gives those states to “Democrat”. This isn’t going top mean much until Dem. nominee is established.

[Fishrrman]

Pennsylvania and Ohio are looking to be the “key states” this time around.

Flip them both to McCain, and he wins.

This is assuming nothing else changes. But then again, with Obama in the race, some “assumed blue” states might come into play. We’ll have to wait and see.

- John

[Momaw Nadon]

[MrB]

Notice the false comparison.

McCain (named candidate) vs “Dem Candidate”.

When you put a name in there, the polls change DRAMATICALLY.

[Momaw Nadon]

This week's "battleground" states (30.0% - 69.9%):

6 Arkansas 65.0%

27 Florida 60.0%

13 Virginia 54.5%

11 Missouri 51.0%

5 Nevada 50.5%

9 Colorado 46.0%

17 Michigan 39.0%

4 New Hampshire 39.0%

20 Ohio 38.2%

5 New Mexico 37.6%

21 Pennsylvania 37.5%

10 Wisconsin 37.5%

7 Iowa 34.0%

[SunkenCiv]

http://www.freerepublic.com/perl/poll

Perhaps *no one* voted on their own side of the ballot during this primary season. ;’)

SHOCK POLL:
1 in 5 Dems to Defect to McCain if Their Candidate Loses Nomination
Drudge | 3/21/08
Posted on 03/21/2008 9:17:05 AM EDT by HD1200
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1989333/posts

Mac: ‘Si, We Can’ Looks To Buck Pro-dem Latino Trend
New York Post | Mar 24, 2008 | Carl Campanile
Posted on 03/24/2008 5:59:04 AM EDT by Jet Jaguar
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1990524/posts

LA Times Has Hit Piece on McCain —
Which Resurrects Old Canards About Ties Between Saddam & Al-Qaeda
Patterico | March 23, 2008 | Staff
Posted on 03/23/2008 11:04:23 PM EDT by jdm
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1990462/posts

Dems are working hard to give McCain a fighting chance
New York Daily News | 03/11/2008 | Richard Cohen
Posted on 03/11/2008 11:23:01 AM EDT by fweingart
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1983857/posts

Democrats Throwing Presidential Race
Hernando Today (FL) | Mar 22, 2008 | Don Kaul
Posted on 03/22/2008 11:14:31 PM EDT by rface
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1990129/posts

Which group is more ... focused: Bush-haters, or McCain-haters? :)
Posted on 03/22/2008 11:42:44 AM EDT by Cringing Negativism Network
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/1989874/posts

First thoughts: a bad week for everyone
MSNBC First Read | March 21, 2008 | Chuck Todd and Mark Murray
Posted on 03/21/2008 1:35:13 PM EDT by jmaroneps37
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1989470/posts

Rewriting Reagan to demean McCain
Pahrump Valley Times | 3/19/08 | Dennis Myers
Posted on 03/19/2008 9:37:31 PM EDT by pissant
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1988524/posts

Making the Case for McCain
Townhall.com | March 21, 2008 | Burt Prelutsky
Posted on 03/21/2008 6:33:26 AM EDT by Kaslin
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1989277/posts

just-say-no-to-Joe-for-VP dep’t:

Lieberman is McCain’s bipartisan wingman
The Politico | March 23, 2008 | JONATHAN MARTIN
Posted on 03/23/2008 11:04:23 AM EDT by rightwingintelligentsia
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1990253/posts