Posted on 03/22/2008 9:14:37 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
WASHINGTON -It is already easy to imagine the Republican attack ads against Barack Obama.
They open with video of his wife, Michelle, saying she was proud of America "for the first time in my adult lifetime" because of her husband's presidential candidacy. Cut to the Illinois Senator explaining that he doesn't wear an American flag lapel pin because it is a "substitute for true patriotism." Then flash a clip of Obama explaining that his Caucasian grandmother was a "typical white person" because she uttered racial epithets and was afraid of black people.
Finally, the coup de grace, pictures of Obama's angry, arm-waving preacher blaming the United States for 9/11 and shouting "God Damn America" to the rafters of Chicago's Trinity United Church of Christ.
Game, set, election, John McCain.
Sound implausible? Hillary Clinton doesn't think so.
The former first lady's best --and, possibly, only --chance of winning the Democratic presidential nomination now hangs on a fragile thread. Far behind in delegates and the popular vote, and with re-votes unlikely in Florida and Michigan, Clinton must convince Democratic superdelegates -- the party officials who have become the kingmakers of the race -- that Obama has been so tainted by controversy that he is unelectable.
"The more that the voters learn about Barack Obama, the more his ability to beat John McCain is declining compared to Hillary," Mark Penn, Clinton's chief strategist, wrote in a campaign memo this week. "For a long time we have explained that poll numbers for a candidate who has not yet been vetted or tested are not firm numbers, and we are beginning to see that clearly."
Clinton herself has remained deliberately, and quietly, on the sidelines as the tempest over Obama's invective-spouting pastor, Reverend Jeremiah A. Wright Jr., wreaked havoc on his campaign.
But while Clinton can't dare say it, Pastor Wright may well be the answer to her White House prayers.
"If your opponent is trying to commit [political] suicide, it's wise to just stand back," says Michael Munger, chair of the political science department at Duke University. "Obama seems to be trying to commit suicide. So there is no reason for Hillary to rise up and start shooting at him."
By most empirical measures of the Democratic presidential race, Hillary Clinton's campaign should be on its death bed.
With only 10 states left to hold Democratic primaries or caucuses, Obama has won 1,414 pledged delegates to 1,246 for Clinton, giving him a 168-delegate advantage. When the support of committed "superdelegates" is factored in, Obama has 1,625 delegates to Clinton's 1,494.
Obama's delegate lead has grown large enough, in fact, that Clinton cannot overtake him among pledged delegates unless she wins two-thirds of the vote in every remaining primary and caucus.
That's a tall order even in Hillary-friendly Pennsylvania, which holds its primary April 22, and a taller one yet in North Carolina and Oregon, later-voting states where black voters and upscale liberals tilt to Obama.
Beyond that, Obama has a commanding lead over Clinton in the popular vote, 13.3 million to 12.6 million, a technically meaningless but still symbolic measure of Democratic support throughout the primary season. And yet.
As carefully crafted and courageous as Obama's speech on racial unity seemed to many Democrats, the controversy it addressed has provided ammunition for his political opponents.
Obama's post-racial, culturally transcendent candidacy suddenly became vulnerable to the deep-rooted racial anxieties of many white voters who could swing either Democrat or Republican in November.
Worse yet, the image of Obama's spiritual advisor espousing anti-American views will give critics the opportunity to question his patriotism, a line of attack that has until now seemed legitimate only to the most conspiratorial and subversive of his enemies on the far right.
Make no mistake, this is a dangerous time for Obama's campaign.
"Questioning someone's patriotism is clearly an effective political strategy," says Brian Schaffner, a political scientist at American University of research director for the Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies in Washington.
"Obama has had all these minor little squabbles about his patriotism before the race thing, like whether he wears
an American flag over his lapel and whether he holds his hands to his heart during the Pledge of Allegiance. Eventually it can create a narrative where people think he is not very patriotic."
Any hint that a presidential candidate lacks undying patriotism is "a potential game-breaker for blue collar white Americans who might otherwise vote Democratic because they are with the Democrats on economic issues," Schaffner says.
Just ask John Kerry. The Democratic candidate was a decorated Vietnam veteran whose 2004 candidacy was destroyed, in part, because the Swift Boat Veterans For Truth smeared his service record and attacked his later dissent over the Vietnam War as unpatriotic.
Munger believes Obama, unfairly, now faces serious questions about his electability.
"When it comes down to it, we're really concerned that our president is pro-American," he said.
"If Obama got to talk to every individual voter, he could win. That's not the way it's going to work. We are going to see attack ads with pictures of Rev. Wright."
Clinton knows this, and so do her strategists, who told The New York Times they need the controversy over Obama's pastor to fester.
If Clinton can convince Democratic superdelegates she now has a better chance to beat McCain, it's conceivable they would go against the will of Democratic primary voters and abandon Obama en masse.
"I had a sickening feeling watching Obama's speech [on race]. This was a great speech. And he showed a lot of the character that a president should have," says Munger. "But that's not how we elect presidents. We elect presidents with 30-second ads about Swift boats." Or maybe not.
Obama's saving grace may be that many Democratic superdelegates remain acutely aware of Clinton's own electability problems. They remember the polarization of American politics during Bill Clinton's administration, and how Democrats kept losing congressional seats in midterm elections while he was president.
And they're not totally blind -- they have seen poll after poll showing Clinton consistently has the highest "negative" approval rating of any candidate.
"Because people don't know Obama very well, it gives him a greater opportunity to recover," says Schaffner. "He has months and months to build his reputation back up."
But he has to stop making mistakes. His comment on Thursday to a Philadelphia radio station -- that his racially suspicious grandmother was a "typical white person" -- poured new fuel on a controversy that he seemed to be bringing under control.
"In all honesty, it does seem that there is a sharpening of the racial divide over Obama's candidacy," says Stephen Schneck, a political scientist at Catholic University in Washington.
But Schneck believes "it would still be a long shot" for Clinton to win the Democratic nomination.
"I would not want to be in Senator Clinton's shoes. I think some breaks are falling her way ... but she has also had some difficulties," he says. "She hasn't been able to convince Florida or Michigan to back doing new primaries which would allow her to get a number of delegates ... More than anything else, that is going to block her from winning the nomination."
does Obama keep Muslim dietary law?
Well, duh.
What part of Hussein can possibly be considered American?
He is a marxist
He is a divider
He has no loyalty to anyone or anything
He is as phoney as a 3 dollar bill
Perhaps, but it's a long way until November.
Clinton’s going to win the nomination. The “superdelegates” have got to be very worried at this point about Osama’s gaffs. I predict they will give Clinton the nomination and use her uncounted “wins” in MI and FL as political cover.
“If someone is committing political suicide..don’t rise up and shoot him!” LOL!
That's why this is all so entertaining. Black people will be so frustrated, angry, convinced it was all a set up, etc., when Obama isn't the nominee that they will just stay home in November. Since the black vote is so crucial to the Democrats, Hillary has no chance.
Yep. You got that right, Sheldon.
As Rush says: "We couldn't make this stuff up!" (And we have no need to.) (The Left cannot tell the truth and get elected. The decent people of America have no need to say anything but the truth!)
What's the crack on Obama's haircuts? How much does it cost to keep that kiwi polished?
Has Willy Jeff turned around and not drowned?
Lot of flooding in Arkancide right now.
Jimmy Carter in seclusion as Easter Bunny makes its rounds this night.
James Carville to tour Carlsbad Caverns.
Al Gore "snowed-in" in Madison WI, reportedly running low on chocolate.
Meanwhile, these guys got your back in Berkeley:
his Caucasian grandmother was a “typical white person” .... afraid of black people.
Hey, let’s face the facts. What part of town is the most dangerous for a white person to be in, after dark, especially in a big city? Whites have a reasonable fear of black people. Whites are not afraid to walk through the white part of town, the oriental part of town, or even the Mexican part of town, at least, not compared to the black parts of our cities. Despite all the efforts of the civil rights era, all the legislation, the forced integration of schools, the racial hatred of blacks towards whites has not declined in any meaninful way over the last fifty years. After a while, people get frustrated and don’t want to hear any more about how the blacks were treated badly 150 years ago, or how they’re unfairly discriminated against today.
Hey, you don’t want to be discriminated against? Finish high school. Talk English like the rest of us (like Obama does). Dress like the rest of us. Get a job. Hunker down and take responsibility for making a better life for yourself. And don’t kill us when we wander into your part of town at night.
Of course, the delightful irony is that if they do that, they will alienate black voters, and feed the kind of white-conspiracy theory that Reverend [sic] Wright likes to peddle from his pulpit.
The GOP convention is after the demonRATs’. If they give it to Hillary, and McCain were to nominate an African American for VP (alas, probably Condi Rice or Colin Powell), it’s game, set and match, and maybe even a demographic shift with the demonRAT lock on the black vote gone for good.
Hands down, Martin Luther King Boulevard, in any of a hundred cities and towns around the country. I've read that some businesses that find themselves on such thoroughfares want the street name changed to improve their business. A sad legacy for a great man.
Michael Steele? J.C. Watts? _______________?
Amen. time to move on hillleree. Leave with some grace and dignity IF she has any. She is making a very big fool of herself. Step aside while you can do so on your own. Otherwise you will be forced out by other party members.
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