2008 Oscars: My heart screams 'Juno!' but my head says Coen Bros.

rogerebert.com ^ | Roger Ebert

[L.A.Justice]

In theory, if I correctly predicted every single Oscar race, nobody could outguess me, and by default, I would win the prize. Alas, that has never, ever happened, and it's unlikely again this year, because as usual I will allow my heart to outsmart my brain in one or two races, which is my annual downfall. In any event, for what they're worth, here are my Academy Award predictions in a year rich with wonderful films.

PICTURE

Prediction: My heart cries out "Juno! Juno! Juno!," but my brain dashes a pail of cold water and sternly corrects me: "No Country for Old Men." To be sure, "There Will Be Blood" cleaned up a lot of the year-end critics' prizes, but is a little too dark and odd for the academy. "Atonement" and "Michael Clayton" are excellent, but don't have the buzz.

Dark horse: "Juno," because the academy may go for an upbeat audience pleaser. Besides, according to me, it really is the best film of the year.

ACTOR

Prediction: Here I cannot see the odds for predicting anyone but Daniel Day-Lewis, period, for "There Will Be Blood." It's a powerful performance, almost in disguise, with that greasy, oily voice, and it's a way to honor an ambitious, respected film. My vote might go to Tommy Lee Jones, who was so fine in "In the Valley of Elah," but I'm pleased enough he at least got a nomination; pleased, too, by Viggo Mortensen, George Clooney and Johnny Depp, in a strong field. But don't bet against Day-Lewis. In this race, I don't think there is a dark horse.

ACTRESS

Prediction: Ellen Page for "Juno." OK, here's where my heart takes over. My brain says Julie Christie will win, both for her career achievement and for the quality of her work. But my heart says Ellen Page made me want to hug Juno in a performance that was much more difficult than it might have appeared. To deliver Diablo Cody's high-voltage dialogue with such breezy authority and to make the character loveable and three-dimensional was a genuine achievement.

Dark horse: Marion Cotillard in "La Vie en Rose."

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Prediction: Javier Bardem in "No Country for Old Men," don't you think? His weirdo killer with the unpronounceable name and the compressed-air cow stunner made an indelible impression. And it wasn't just for the heartless violence, but for the droll timing of scenes like his exchange with the gas station owner. The other four nominees seem sort of overshadowed, wonderful as they were.

Dark horse: Philip Seymour Hoffman for "Charlie Wilson's War."

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Prediction: Ruby Dee for "American Gangster." I think the race is between Cate Blanchett, playing Bob Dylan in "I'm Not There," and the beloved veteran Ruby Dee," the mom of the "American Gangster." The supporting actress has a way of throwing a curveball some years. Does that mean Dee will win? Or maybe Amy Ryan?

Dark horse: Amy Ryan in "Gone Baby Gone."

DIRECTOR

Prediction: Joel and Ethan Coen for "No County for Old Men," and a lot of other great films. The other nominees are all in one sense or another not Hollywood insiders. Well, neither are the Coens, for that matter, but they're better known. Plus, the Coens won the Directors Guild Award last month, and that winner automatically becomes the Oscar front-runner.

Dark horse: Paul Thomas Anderson for "There Will Be Blood."

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Prediction: Diablo Cody for "Juno." She looks like a sure thing. The film benefits so mightily from its screenplay, which is so unconventional in its dialogue that we hardly notice how sure it is in its construction. Here again, I don't see a dark horse.

ANIMATED FEATURE

Prediction: "Ratatouille," hands-down. Period. Case closed. Despite the charm and originality of "Persepolis."

DOCUMENTARY

Prediction: The powerful, irrefutable "No End in Sight," which does some real reporting and obtains useful interviews with insiders who discuss what went wrong with the Iraq invasion.

Dark horse: "War/Dance," kids in an African war zone, being kids.

The following categories are not on the Outguess Ebert ballot, but here are my fearless picks, anyway.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Prediction: The Coens, for "No Country for Old Men," with their laconic, subtly funny, economical yet quirky dialogue, with a big assist from Cormac McCarthy's original novel.

Dark horse: Paul Thomas Anderson for "There Will Be Blood."

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Prediction: Roger Deakins for his elegant, measured vision and wide open spaces in "No Country for Old Men," commencing with the hypnotic opening shots.

Dark horse: Seamus McGarvey, for "Atonement" and its astonishing tracking shot (no special effects) in the Dunkirk scene.

EDITING

Prediction: Christopher Rouse for "The Bourne Ultimatum." Well, it sure had the most edits, didn't it? Even though the microscopic average shot length gave some viewers the heaves.

Dark horse: Roderick Jaynes for "No Country for Old Men." The award will be accepted on his behalf by the Coen brothers (in-joke).

ORIGINAL SONG

Prediction: "Falling Slowly" from "Once," not just for the song but for the manner of its presentation. The three nominees from "Enchanted" will cancel one another out.

Dark horse: "Raise It Up" from "August Rush."

[bigjoesaddle]

I hated “No Country for Old Men”.

THANK YOU!!!

I usually love the Coen Brothers, and was with them till the film suddenly stopped. I was like "What the hell was that?!"

[purpleraine]

FYI, conservative Oscar parody.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1971471/posts?page=21#21

[bigjoesaddle]

I will admit that at the beginning it felt like “Fargo”, so I was expecting “Fargo”, and it ended up not being like “Fargo”. I’ll have to watch it again

[Buckhead]

I’ve discussed this movie with other folks on line, and hardly any two impressions are the same. However, I felt it was a serious film about good, evil and fate.

[L.A.Justice]

Nice to know that I wasn’t the only one who didn’t completely enjoy NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN.

By the way, Michael Medved gave three stars (out of 4) for the film. But, he did say that the film was “overpraised”.

[L.A.Justice]

I did watch THE LADYKILLERS (2004), starring Tom Hanks. That movie wasn’t too bad...

I guess you didn’t like FARGO?

[Moonman62]

Fargo was OK, but I don't see what all the fuss was about.

My favorite lines in the movie, Where is pancakes house?

[proudofthesouth]

I haven’t watched an awards show (well except maybe for those commercial of the year (cause they’re so good!) in almost 30 years.

There is no other purpose for these award shows except to feed egos that are already excessive* and to sell even MORE music, dvd’s, etc.

With the exception of the commercial of the year I can’t stand these show!

*My apologies for those of you who work behind the scenes in the industry. I’m sure you do work hard and deserve the recognition.

[RonPaulLives]

Personally, I loved No Country For Old Men. I don’t like when all movies start and end the same. Who needs cookie cutter films. Don’t we get enough of that in Presidential elections?

[SomeCallMeTim]

I will miss the awards tonight... as, I will be flying home (THANK YOU, GOD) from Buenos Aires. Nice place, but..... I’m ready to be home.

MY wife and I loved JUNO. Really, a surprisingly good film from start to finish. THERE WILL BE BLOOD was long and dark, but really a very good film. I agree that Daniel Lewis MUST win for that performance.

Haven’t seen any of the others yet.. but, NO COUNTY FOR OLD MEN is one I want to catch when it comes back out after the awards. It looked good, from the trailers...

However... as a piece of art, the Rat movie was best made last year. :-)

[PennsylvaniaMom]

Re: the watch being thrown back into the burning car...I thought it was odd too (along w/throwing credit cards?). Anyway, it was much better than I thought it would be. Clooney was very good. I think a darkhorse for best supporting actress (though they won't dis Ruby Dee) would be Tilda Swinston. Great performance in MClayton...understated and unnerving.

I really liked Attonement (thought Kiera Knightly did well to loose her 'brand' of the Pirate movies. I dind't see No Country for Old Men...but I did see There Will be Blood and I didn't like it at all. Daniel Day Lewis will win by sheer volume of face time he had. I wouldn't recommend it myself.

Lastly I loved Juno. It was adorable and witty/funny. Great movie. Disney's Enchanted should have been up for something...it was just fun technicolor escapism...everything that a movie should be (and I can't wait to buy it...I want to count all of the 'Princess' references...I may have missed a few.)

[RetiredArmy]

I perfectly agree with you. No argument.

[Zevonismymuse]

I have only one prediction: this will be the lowest-rated Oscars ever because they have a host from basic cable

I am not watching....but my son just called from Chicago to see if I heard what Jon Stewart just said. According to my son, and I'm paraphrasing him paraphrasing Jon Stewart,"Can you believe we are in a war with Islamic Fundamentalists and we are about to elect a guy named Hussein POTUS?" My son said the audience didn't laugh and appeared very uncomfortable. I can't wait to see it on Youtube.

[redstates4ever]

"My heart does not care. My head said who gives a damn what awards liberals give to other liberals."

Amen.

[PhilCollins]

You were right about the low ratings. I haven’t watched the Oscars for at least 10 years because I don’t care about the movies that were nominated. I think that the best movie of 2007 was “The Simpsons.” In ‘06, my favorite movie was “Man of the Year.” Why don’t more comedies receive Oscar nominations? No comedy won the Best Picture Oscar in the last 30 years.