Posted on 02/11/2008 2:05:16 PM PST by PlainOleAmerican
Written by JB Williams ©2008 USA
Whether the RNC is trying to destroy the GOP or not, it’s clear that they couldn’t do a better job of destroying it, no matter how hard they try. Making John McCain the RNC nominee is the most certain way to lose the 2008 election. But even if McCain could actually win in November, almost a numerical impossibility by the way, many conservatives have already predicted that even a McCain victory would be the end of the GOP as we know it. What’s the RNC thinking?
Can McCain Win?
While MSM polling data aims to make McCain look like the best the RNC can do, the real numbers say something quite different.
As of this writing, the RNC has completed 30 state primaries. Our “leader” John McCain, has lost 19 of the 30. A little over 16.5 million votes have been cast in Republican primaries so far, only 4.9 million of those for McCain, 30.9%. - with 69.1% of all Republican voters having voted against McCain.
Obama carried his home state of Illinois with 65% of the vote. Clinton carried her adopted home state of New York with 57% of the vote. McCain won his home state too, but with only 47% of the vote, less than half of his constituents. The only states McCain broke above 50% in are liberal stronghold states, Connecticut, New Jersey and New York and in all three cases, both Clinton and Obama defeat him in these states by more than a 2 to 1 margin…
28 states have completed both RNC and DNC primaries thus far. By popular vote, Obama won 14, Clinton 10 and McCain only 4. McCain lost the RNC primary in 3 of those 4 states, averaging only 14% support from Republican primary voters in each. He is at best secure in only 2 of the 4 states, Alaska and Iowa. In the general election, he can indeed lose both Arizona and Nevada.
This is the “winner” RNC heads think they can defeat Democrats with in the fall? How???
The National Popular Vote
All Republicans combined have garnered 16.5 million primary votes in 30 primaries. Democrats Clinton and Obama alone have garnered 17.6 million primary votes in only 28 primaries, 1.1 million more than all Republicans combined. If McCain could unite 100% of Republican voters behind his campaign, and Clinton – Obama only keep their 78% of the Democrat votes, McCain still loses by over 1 million votes… and he can’t unite 100% of Republican voters, no way – no how!
Of more than 22.5 million primary votes cast and counted to date, Clinton has 40% of those votes while Obama has 38% and McCain has but 22%. McCain is not even in striking distance of either Clinton or Obama. Who can McCain invite to share his ticket that will unite GOP voters and deliver the kind of excitement currently found across the political aisle? Only Jesus Christ has such powers… I can think of no other.
If this is the RNC’s idea of choosing a winning candidate, I’d like to see their idea of a losing candidate? Even Bob Dole was a better bet in 1996.
Where can McCain win?
At the moment, it appears that McCain can’t win anywhere but Alaska and Iowa, both of which he lost miserably in the RNC primary, but both of which are SO Republican that even a Republican loser can defeat a Democrat there. He’s not close to winning anywhere else at the moment and unless he finds a way to unite and ignite GOP voters, that’s not likely to change.
How do you elect any candidate with 22% of the popular vote and 30.9% support in his own party? The math simply won’t work.
Clinton – Obama to unite for Proletariat Party Unity
For almost two years now, I have been warning of this eventuality and until Super Tuesday, everyone said I was nuts. Now most political strategists are saying the same thing and here’s why.
Clinton and Obama are in a dead heat right now. Clinton and Obama share 78% of the DNC primary voters, leaving only 22% on the table, most of whom will happily unite behind either candidate by convention time. Clinton currently has 40% of those voters while Obama has 38%.
The two “I’m more socialist than you” candidates are also in a dead heat in the delegate race, Clinton with 1148 and Obama with 1121, both of them flying to North Carolina to negotiate with John Edwards for his 26 delegates. We’re talking a photo finish here for these two.
Obama has won 14 states to Hillary’s 10, but Hillary’s are bigger. If Obama is going to sneak ahead of Clinton to become the DNC nominee, he’s got to do it soon or it will become a numerical impossibility.
A few facts make an Obama nomination plausible, even if unlikely.
• He has no resume, so no BIG negatives like Hillary • He has charisma and momentum – she’s a negative nagging bitch • He has the youth vote for change – she’s crusty old bad news • He’s raising money and she’s out of money
Still, due to a massive well trained Clinton war machine, Hillary remains out front and the woman to beat in this race. Assuming she hangs on until the photo finish and the numbers simply won’t work for Obama to become the clear front-runner, both have a problem that can only be solved by uniting on a single ticket in the general election.
Remember that liberals are nothing if not symbolism over substance. Neither of these two candidates is in any way qualified to become Commander-in-Chief. But that has not had any impact on their voters thus far and it won’t.
That’s because liberals smell an opportunity to make history by putting the first female and first black in the White House in one shot. If you’re a liberal, no matter what this means for the demise of your country, this is a symbolic opportunity you just can’t pass up…
And, if you’re Hillary looking for a sure win in November, you don’t take any chances. You unite 78+% the party in one move by bringing Obama onto your side in the general. Liberals get exactly what they want, two socialists for the price of one and a whole chapter in history that can be written no other way. Republicans are facing the perfect political storm…
If you’re Obama and the numbers just aren’t there, you take a 2nd place finish and run as an incumbent Vice President in four or eight years. He’s young. The ink on his driver’s license isn’t even dry yet… The first black Vice President is HUGE! It makes for great symbolism, even if disastrous for our national future at the same time.
How can McCain compete with that?
Two words – he can’t! If you think he can, check these numbers…
McCain is the worst possible Republican candidate to compete in this election with such historical implications in play. He represents the past, not the future. He’s unpopular with both Democrats and Republicans. There aren’t enough Independents in the world to carry this “Maverick” to victory.
This was either the greatest strategic blunder in the worldwide history of politics, or it was an intentional deathblow to the GOP, delivered at the hands of RNC powerbrokers hell-bent on destroying the conservative party for good. You decide…
Conservatives Golden Parachute
Conservatives have only two bailout options left on the table. Mike Huckabee and the U.S. Senate.
Huckabee is highly unlikely to defeat the MSM golden boy McCain and even if he did, there is little reason to think he would be any better than McCain in the general election or the Oval Office.
So, the Senate is where conservatives must now turn their attention in a BIG way!
Taking back control of the Senate, which must confirm all Supreme Court nominees and pass all legislation, must now become job #1 for all conservatives. The House is not realistically in play, but the closely divided Senate is…
Use the energy and money you were prepared to put into Thompson, Huckabee, Paul, Hunter, Tancredo, Romney, Giuliani or any other Republican, to make certain that a conservative is sitting in your Senate seat after November.
If you can’t put a conservative in your Senate seat this year, take a look at other Senate races where you can help other states pick up a conservative seat in the Senate and put your resources to work there. We’re talking saving a nation here…
Whether Clinton, Obama or McCain sit in the Oval Office for the next four years, who controls the U.S. Senate will be vital to protecting and preserving conservative values and principles for the next ten or twenty years. If conservatives can’t unite around this one, they deserve what they get!
* Real McCain support numbers - http://jb-williams.com/mccain-2008.htm
McCain was mostly supported by Independants and Democrats who voted for him in Republican primaries. Sometimes legally, sometimes not. Dems don’t really make a distinction there.
McCain supporters are like abused spouses who keep taking the abuser back. If your spouse cheated on you as many times as the GOP has cheated on Conservatives, would you still be with them? Not if you have any self respect.
Wrong- less than four percent of the voting base eliminated Thompson, Brownback, Hunter, Tancredo and maybe Keyes. A very large percentage of the voting base has yet to vote, and now we're down to a "winner". You can't blame this on voters who haven't yet voted.
“The clobbering began in 2006 when the news media convinced all the “righteous” to stay home.”
That wasn’t “the media” it was the Republican Party. Stop making excuses and enabling them or they will never change.
It’s the same on the Left, the people who whine the loudest are the ones who don’t vote.
Clearly, you are in way over your head here...
Who decided to hold early RNC primaries in liberal stronghold states and allow liberals to vote for the Republican nominee so that no conservative was left standing before 99% of Republican got a chance to vote in the primaries?
That would be the RNC Bob....
Obama carried his home state of Illinois with 65% of the vote. Clinton carried her adopted home state of New York with 57% of the vote. McCain won his home state too, but with only 47% of the vote, less than half of his constituents. The only states McCain broke above 50% in are liberal stronghold states, Connecticut, New Jersey and New York and in all three cases, both Clinton and Obama defeat him in these states by more than a 2 to 1 margin. . .
28 states have completed both RNC and DNC primaries thus far. By popular vote, Obama won 14, Clinton 10 and McCain only 4. McCain lost the RNC primary in 3 of those 4 states, averaging only 14% support from Republican primary voters in each. He is at best secure in only 2 of the 4 states, Alaska and Iowa. In the general election, he can indeed lose both Arizona and Nevada.
The stark truth. The only question is whether the history books will declare the RNC Strategery or Rudy Giuliani's non-traditional campaign the stupidest Republican moves of 2008.
Are you really as ignorant as you appear???
99% of Republican voters had NO CHANCE to vote before liberals in New Hampshire and Michigan, along with evangelicals in Iowa, eliminated all conservatives from the race. Then the evangelicals eliminated Thompson in SC and McCain had clear sailing before 99% of Republcans ever had a chance to vote on or after Super Tuesday...
Do you really not know this? By the time Republicans could vote, there was nobody left to vote for...
Who do you hold responsible for that?
Ummm... the RNC?
Aren't those the same folks that gave us McCain, Schwarzenegger, and Giuliani as headliners at the 2004 Convention to help build their legacy and popularity as good "Republicans"?
Excellent, calcowgirl!
I do not believe McCain can win. If he does, it will be without my vote.
Uh, yes, I think you’re right, that was the RNC who set these two up for 2008 back in 2004...
It was also the RNC who saw to it liberal strongholds would eliminate conservatives from the race before real Republicans got a chance to vote and... now that I think about it, it is the RNC who decided to allow Democrats and Independents to vote in many early RNC primaries...
Well, I guess the RNC is at fault here... Damn!
McCain was “eliminated” last year but nobody told him. If Fred Thompson had hung in there he would have won my state for sure and at least half the South.
[Who do you hold responsible for that?]
Who fell by the roadside before the race was done?
Either way, it doesn’t explain away the results in Iowa where Huckabee came out on top, flushing away those who believe in smaller government and less taxes in favor of someone who favors big government programs and a consistent record of raising taxes. How can you blame the RNC for that fiasco? How can you blame the RNC for the ‘next best’ conservative Mitt Romney at a presidential debate stating: I like mandates, mandates work.
You could also blame the donors who keep funding these candidates, or the state organizations who support them. Anyone can file the paperwork for being a presidential candidate, but without donors and state level activists, they don’t go anywhere. (Ask Rudy if you’re unclear on that concept.)
But all of this ignores the simplistic fact that the voters made the decision.
Now, you want to take square aim at the RNC for discouraging conservatives from coming up the system, discouraging and outright forbidding some from challenging incumbent CINOs, there you’ll have my support. In a way, yes, they created the atmosphere where folks like McCain can actually be viewed as a valid candidate - but that’s because there’s a huge lack of good choices because of the CINO protection by the RNC.
Ping
How is the RNC involved? Seems like they are staying out of it for the time being.
Trust me, Iowa is not a Republican stronghold, I know— I live there.
Other than comparing apples to oranges to grapes, I suppose it’s fine. On a strictly factual level, the article is full of error. I.e., the RNC doesn’t pick the candidate. IA is not a GOP state.
This sounds like the Dems complaining after ‘00 about that pesky Electoral College. The name of the nominating primaries game is collecting delegates. New York has more delegates than Wyoming. The name of the presidential election game is electoral votes. Ditto NY v WY. It’s not about the popular vote, or having a greater number of states in your column, it’s about how many delegates/electoral votes the candidates get. Whoever gets the most wins.
Conservatives could not get their act together behind anyone, they were having too much fun ripping frontrunner Rudy Giuliani apart. SO now they can live with the consequences. Our next president will be either John McCain or Hillary Clinton or Barrack Obama. There are no other viable alternatives remaining. Ronald Reagan is not coming back.
If Orrin Hatch could have gotten his “Arnold for President” amendment through, I believe he would have been in the line-up, too.
They had several horses in the race. When it became evident Giuliani couldn’t win, they that horse to increase the odds for McCain. I suspect Fred was also a tool of this little game.
In addition to the things you mentioned (or maybe you mentioned it and I missed it), I believe they orchestrated the changes in party rules regarding the primaries. It was no coincidence that New Jersey switched to Winner-Take-All and California did just the opposite (and assigned delegates equally to liberal and conservative Congressional District, regardless of Republican population).
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