The Death of Conservatism? - 43 Mistakes and the GOP's Dobson's Choice

There have been more than a few recent articles and editorials attempting to affix blame for the demise of the Republican Party. Peggy Noonan blames President Bush. Rush Limbaugh believes a McCain nomination will kill the party. However, even in a worse case scenario, the Republican Party will probably stagger along for several years much like the last decade of the Whigs. Conservative Republicans should probably be more concerned about the impending demise of the conservative movement within the party. Some individuals can be blamed more than others, but this folly has many fathers. The latest blow to conservatives has come from within – thanks to Dr. James Dobson and other egotistical evangelicals. Political doomsayers may be correct and it is likely too late to save the conservative movement in 2008. Conservatives can correct their path to destruction for 2010 and beyond, but only if they look back at recent history, recognize the actions and actors that have brought the party and movement to this point, and to learn from a long series of missteps and mistakes.

Ronald Reagan built a winning coalition of conservatives, independents and establishment moderate Republicans in 1980. A coalition of social, economic and security conservatives had come together to form a plurality within the GOP and wrest leadership of the party from the establishment, moderate GOP. The Iran-Contra scandal (Mistake #1) weakened the coalition and the moderate wing of the party regained control of the GOP (Mistake #2), which led to the election of President George H.W. Bush (Mistake #3).

While the elder Bush had adopted – albeit reluctantly – many conservative ideals, he and the moderate GOP leaders advocated a “kinder, gentler” approach (Mistake #4). Conservatives might have been content to take a back seat to moderate GOP leadership, but they read Bush’s lips and their support and enthusiasm for the Republican Party evaporated after the Bush tax increase (Mistake #5). In 1992 some conservatives were taken in by Ross Perot and his anti-establishment, anti-Washington message (Mistake #6). Others just stayed home (Mistake #7) and helped Democrats elect the Dope from Hope, Bill Clinton, with just 43% of the popular vote (Mistake #8).

The only positive to come out of 1992 was that it helped create an opening for an obscure, but brilliant Congressman from Georgia to lead conservatives to regain control of the Republican Party. Newt Gingrich reformed the three-legged conservative coalition and took an upstart innovative approach of leading the GOP from the House with a 1994 national congressional campaign platform – the Contract with America.

It is important to note that prior to the ’94 elections, Senate Minority Leader Bob Dole and other establishment, moderate GOP leaders scoffed at and were dismissive of Gingrich and the Contract. Dole and Senate moderates rode the Contract’s election coattails, but made it plain that the GOP Senate did NOT sign on to the program, was not obligated to it, reluctantly followed Gingrich's lead, and worked to water down each and every one of the Contract's provisions (Mistake #9).

By January 1996, Dole was the presumptive Republican presidential nominee (Mistake #10). Dole sought to convince Speaker Gingrich to fold up the federal government shutdown stalemate with President Clinton and allow Dole to lead the GOP via his presidential campaign.

Dole gave Gingrich the choice of single-handedly continuing the shutdown and fight with Clinton and the media with Candidate Dole seeking a different path from the House GOP or deferring to Dole's presidential campaign and resuming the conservative battle together with Gingrich’s friend Trent Lott to keep President Dole honest after the ’96 elections. Gingrich made the wrong choice (Mistake #11). Gingrich probably should have run for President himself in 1996 (Mistake #12).

We all remember what happened. By caving in and compromising on the shutdown, the conservative House leadership lost some of their ability to control their more moderate members (Mistake #13). Bob Dole lost (Mistake #14). Trent Lott built his own voice separate from the House (Mistake #15). And with no help from Lott & the GOP Senate and a Clinton veto looming on all conservative issues, Gingrich, Armey & DeLay focused too much of their efforts on the growing Clinton scandals (Mistake #16).

Gingrich was able to maintain order within the House even during the Clinton impeachment. But after the Senate RINOs failed to do their duty and convict Clinton (Mistake #17), the House moderates began feeling their oats (Mistake #18).

Then, the impact of the missing FBI files took effect. Allegations of marital affairs Gingrich and Hyde took their toll (Mistake #19). Seeing his conservative House coalition slowly diminish and Lott's desire to set on a different path, Gingrich stepped down as Speaker (Mistake #20). Then his presumed successor, Bob Livingston from Louisiana, was also taken out by a marital affair (Mistake #21).

House Moderates became emboldened and championed the lackluster Dennis Hastert as Speaker to muzzle Armey & DeLay and appear less confrontational (Mistake #22). This effort also helped to clear the agenda of party leadership for the 2000 GOP presidential candidates (Mistake #23). And in 2000, conservatives settled for the "compassionate conservatism" of George W. Bush (Mistake #24). Many conservatives stayed home, nearly costing Bush the presidency and actually losing GOP control of the Senate in 2000 (Mistake #25).

To be fair, conservatives should thank God everyday for W's leadership in dealing with 9-11. But Bush also squandered the opportunity to push the party and country to the right following that horrible event (Mistake #26). The GOP regained control of the Senate in 2002, but based solely on the country’s fears of Democrats’ inability to deal with national security concerns and not on conservative social and economic principles. Meanwhile, the House drifted further to the center (Mistake #27).

Conservative fears of repeating Florida 2000 helped Bush win reelection in 2004, despite the party's overall drift to the center. By now, any conservative elements in the House and Senate were in complete retreat. The moderates ruled the roost in both houses. RINO defections on the Iraq war (Mistake #28), wasteful earmarks (Mistake #29) and ethics scandals (Mistake #29) were now front and center for the GOP. The only conservative victories of 2005-06 were the confirmations of Roberts and Alito to the Supreme Court. And it took a battle to defeat Bush on his nomination of Harriet Miers to do it.

By Fall 2006 conservatives had become utterly disheartened. Attempts to make the Bush tax cuts permanent stalled (Mistake #30), the continued treachery of Arlen Spector, John McCain, Lindsey Graham and the Gang of 14 (Mistake #31), increased dissatisfaction with George Bush and the Miers nomination debacle all caused conservatives to stay home in November 2006 (Mistake #32). And the GOP lost both the House and Senate.

Occasionally, the conservative movement can still rise up. The reaction to the Amnesty bill was encouraging. But other than that, conservatives have again been wandering in the wilderness. GOP moderates and RINO's have been resistant to allowing a conservative to assume leadership in Congress. And any potential conservative congressional leader has held back (Mistake #33), in part due to the extremely early start of the 2008 presidential race (Mistake #34).

And what did conservatives get for 2008 GOP candidates? Were there any Reagan conservatives who possessed all three legs of the coalition stool - strong national defense, social conservatism, economic conservatism?

Instead, we got Rudy Giuliani. An autocrat who has little affection for social conservatives, but pledged to nominate strict construction judges. Whoopee!

Instead, we got John McCain. An angry RINO maverick who enjoys flouting social and economic conservatives AND even the GOP establishment to gain favor and positive reviews from the liberal media.

Instead, we got Mitt Romney, an uber-wealthy GOP establishment moderate. At least Romney panders to social and economic conservatives with recently discovered flip-flopped positions on issues of importance to those two factions.

Instead, we got Mike Huckabee – the Dope from Hope, part II. While he is just as slick and manipulative as Bill Clinton, Huckabee is nowhere near as smart.

Instead, we got Ron Paul, a true blue, libertarian nutbag. Paul has a few economic bona fides that have pulled away a few non-nut job libertarians. But I'm sorry, Dr. Paul is a kook.

Instead, we got the Obscure Four - Tom Tancredo, Alan Keyes, Tommy Thompson & Duncan Hunter. Tancredo & Keyes are single issue candidates. Tommy & Dunc are well-rounded politicians (especially Hunter), but they lacked the ability to have broad nationwide appeal.

Seeing this morass of blech, Fred Thompson entered the fray expecting to be the savior of the Republican Party and the conservative movement. Fred should have been that candidate.

Unfortunately, Dr. James Dobson and a few evangelical leaders decided to cut off their nose to spite their face (Mistake #35). You see, Fred's not a Bible thumper. Neither was Ronald Reagan. And like Reagan, Fred is a bona fide, all-around, federalist conservative. That wasn’t good enough for Dobson. And when Fred refused to kiss Dobson's ring of evangelical purity, Dobson went shopping for a candidate he thought he could control.

Flim Flam Huckabee seized on that opportunity. Huckabee played Dobson into thinking that Dobson could be a GOP kingmaker (Mistake #36). A handful of evangelical leaders blindly pushed Huckabee as a viable conservative (Mistake #37). The media, who knows a GOP loser when they see one, helped fan the flames of Huckabee's support. For a time, the scheme worked. Huckabee won Iowa (Mistake #38), but eventually the truth of Huckabee's Christian Socialism became evident to most conservatives.

But the damage had been done. Social conservatives were now spilt. Some had been taken in by Huckabee's class warfare (Mistake #39). Some had been taken in by the media's false depiction of Fred as a lazy campaigner (Mistake #40) and settled for Romney, Rudy or, worse, McCain (Mistake #41).

Added into this deceptive mix was the ability of independents and Democrats to participate in and distort the Iowa, New Hampshire & South Carolina Republican primaries (Mistake #42). Media darling McCain was back! McCain – the new Comeback Kid – was ready to lead....the GOP down to defeat. Meanwhile, Fred's race and the ability for the GOP to unify behind a Reaganesque conservative died (Mistake #43).

At best, the GOP could still end up with a George W. Bush-lite nominee like Mitt Romney. He will at least pretend to care about conservative ideals from his Country Club wing of the party.

At worst, the GOP could end up with John McCain. McCain, the perennial thorn in the GOP's side who was once touted as a possible VP running mate for John Kerry!

Who knows? It’s still remotely possible that none of the moderates and RINO’s still in the presidential race will win a majority of the primary delegates. Maybe a conservative nominee could still rise up in a brokered GOP convention. Maybe a conservative national congressional campaign like the Contract with America could still arise in time for the 2008 elections. But really, that’s a fantasy.

The reality is that conservatives will have to wait until 2010 or 2012 to reassert itself as the true and legitimate leaders of the Republican Party. The reality is that conservatives have allowed numerous people to make numerous mistakes which have led the movement to this precarious point. The reality is that conservatives and the GOP are now left with this Dobson's Choice of Romney or McCain. Pass the nose clips and prepare for the worst.

Oh come on! How could he have a worse temperment than Hillary?

OK, I'll give some ground here.

If you cross McCain, your body won't be discovered in Ft. Marcy Park with a self-inflicted gunshot wound.

But McCain is known almost universally as one of the most ill-tempered politicians in recent memory.

Shrillary may be worse, but not by much.

None of Huckabee's supporters-to-be on the ground thought this until they were told that's what they were to think.

I am talking of FReeper concerns before the rise of Huckabee, around the time that Fred threw his hat in the ring (and before).

All Huckabee has done is give McCain a shot at the nomination. And 3 or 4 subsequent RINO-living-breathing-Constitutional Justices. So long overturning Roe v. Wade. Good show. Really well done.

If Fred had been more tactful in his approach, and less concerned about his "I'm my own man" rhetoric, If Fred had been farsighted enough to attend to the SoCons as much as he did to the libertarian and security factions, there would not have been a Huckabee.

show us how a DOMA or RLA would be enacted by President Huckabee.

I will say (as I have before) that I personally don't believe the amendments would pass, though I wouldn't put it past the Christian Right. They are a terrible force if they get a burr under their saddle.

Perhaps you'd be the one Huckabee supporter

I am not, nor have I ever been a Huckabee supporter. As a matter of disclosure, I am a proud 1%er, a rock-ribbed Reagan Conservative. I supported Hunter until he bowed out, and I now support Dr. Alan Keyes.

I now support Dr. Alan Keyes.

lol

Silly me for attempting to use reason, logic and critical thinking in our discussions.

Thanks for playing, we have some lovely parting gifts for you.

I am talking of FReeper concerns before the rise of Huckabee, around the time that Fred threw his hat in the ring (and before).

Which is why I called them supporters-to-be. They didn't know when Fred put his hat in the ring that they were not supposed to like him until they were told. That's when his support dropped from the level he had when he announced. Huck had a surge after that when he was anointed for the evangelicals.

If Fred had been farsighted enough to attend to the SoCons as much as he did to the libertarian and security factions, there would not have been a Huckabee.

Yeah. If only he'd gotten an endorsment from some SoCon groups. Like RTL or something. If only... I'll admit, I didn't think us evangelicals were this politically naive. But we were. People at my non-denominational charismatic church were amazed that I dared to question Huckabee's candidacy. "Isn't he the guy who believes in ALL the GOOD THINGS?" Direct quote. It is tough to admit that our strength in politics on the Religious Right comes from our numbers and dedication, not our smarts. But there it is.

I supported Hunter until he bowed out, and I now support Dr. Alan Keyes.

Very well, then. My apologies for calling you a Huckabee supporter.

I'll admit, I didn't think us evangelicals were this politically naive. But we were. People at my non-denominational charismatic church were amazed that I dared to question Huckabee's candidacy. "Isn't he the guy who believes in ALL the GOOD THINGS?" Direct quote. It is tough to admit that our strength in politics on the Religious Right comes from our numbers and dedication, not our smarts. But there it is.

Amen, brother. It sounds like you've been talking to some of my distant relatives. My immediate family appears to have been blessed with all of the intelligence genes.

Yeah. If only he'd gotten an endorsment from some SoCon groups. Like RTL or something.

For your edification, NRTL is to Pro-Life as NRA is to the 2nd Amendment... It has sullied itself enough that it doesn't have the influence folks think it does... Hit the Pro-Life websites and blogs and you will see my point.

Very well, then. My apologies

NP :D

Thompson Says He's No Churchgoer, Won't Tout Religion on Stump

Asked by reporters later to clarify his stance on religion, Thompson said: ``Me getting up and talking about what a wonderful person I am and that sort of thing, I'm not comfortable with that, and I don't think it does me any good. People will make up their own mind about that, and that's the way I like it.''

Christianity = "getting up and talking about what a wonderful person I am"

No, I think I understand and sadly we had to "make up" our "own mind about that".

Nice except for:

Fred Thompson lost this all on his own....period.

The first two debates sucked ....and that’s just for starters.

His failure will be studied about how not to run for President.

Blaming that on Huckster and Dobson is far too generous to Fred.

I think you left out as well 1) No VP running, 2) ungreat legacy from sitting POTUS, 3) too many friggin candidates which will always favor a moderate

Christianity = "getting up and talking about what a wonderful person I am"

Your propensity to believe the absolute worst about a man who has done nothing to deserve that is bizarre. Contrast that with the ability to take everything a Huckster says at face value without batting an eyelid and it becomes some sort of alternate universe. No sane person would have read the article you quoted and thought that Fred was talking about Christianity in general when he said the quote you posted.

Why you feel the need to continue to paint him in a negative light after he's dropped out is indicative that you have nothing left to fight for in the election. Which is indicative of how effective the strategy of the Evangelical Right was overall. You did get rid of Thompson. Too bad about Romney and McCain. They're the only two left with a chance. One is a Mormon who has been no friend to right-to-lifers in the past. The other will nominate judges somewhere to the left of Stephens and Souter and call them "bipartisan moderates."

Just because issue a statement isn’t “technically” correct doesn’t negate the fact that Dobson’s point was to steer Christians who listen to him AWAY from Thompson.

Dobson was describing the Evangelical Christian point of view, he was not steering it. If he was, why would he begin his sentence with "Everybody knows Fred is a conservative"?

I have made a personal decision to scrutinize Dobson’s statements because of that.

That's a very good idea. You should always scrutinize everyone's statements.

Acts 17
10 And the brethren immediately sent away Paul and Silas by night unto Berea: who coming thither went into the synagogue of the Jews.
11 These were more noble than those in Thessalonica, in that they received the word with all readiness of mind, and searched the scriptures daily, whether those things were so.

I agree.

ever notice those who revile “Evangelicals” here tend to be from certain parts of the country

parts that haven’t elected conservatives in a generation

coincidence?

and half the fools here think anyone who believes in salvation and ain’t Catholic is an Evilgelical
(and these are often the same folks who shout bigot at every turn)

what a smear campaign.....I’m about sick of it

Fred Thompson ran a horrible.....horrible campaign...and I gave him a lot of damned money...1000s

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