Posted on 01/21/2008 1:53:24 PM PST by knighthawk
President Bush's just-concluded Middle East trip has sparked hope in several key areas, particularly confronting Iran's bad behavior and making progress in the Arab-Israeli conflict.
But here's the essential fix the President is in: He is far more likely to be successful in countering Iran's expanding influence and dealing with other major regional problems than in resolving the Arab-Israeli dispute - yet his pursuit of the former goal is impeded by his policies concerning the latter.
This view is contrary to the conventional wisdom of most Europeans and many Americans, namely that peace between Israelis and Arabs will facilitate solutions to other Middle East disturbances.
Under this theory, once desires for a Palestinian state become a reality, the terrorist threat to Israel will decrease, Lebanon will become more stable, Iraq will grow calmer and the combined IranianSyrian threat will recede. Perhaps even the price of oil will come down.
Pursuing this Holy Grail, however, is manifestly wrong. If Israel's most implacable opponents got their fondest wish, and Israel simply disappeared, all of the region's other fault lines would remain. Diplomatic efforts alone cannot change the objective reality on the ground, which is not at all conducive to yet another "peace process."
If we hope to make real progress, we must face unpleasant facts.
The Israeli government is an unsteady coalition whose political prospects are grim at best. Indeed, it is a commonplace that it is only the government's weakness that keeps it in power, as each of the constituent parties fear that their respective Knesset memberships would diminish after an election. This analysis is not a criticism of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's government but simply a statement of the political reality in Israel. This is not a recipe for dramatic and risky diplomacy over Israel's very future.
Things are far worse on the Palestinian side. The election of Hamas has broken the Palestinian Authority into two possibly irreconcilable pieces, with Hamas in Gaza and Fatah on the West Bank. Neither can exercise assured power over their respective territories, and the lives of average Palestinians daily grow more difficult. There is no Palestinian leader who can implement whatever commitments might be made in negotiations with the Olmert government.
It defies common sense, therefore, to believe that even vigorous U.S. diplomatic efforts through the Annapolis Process can result in true progress. Hope, goodwill, shuttle diplomacy and even presidential prestige will not suffice. The present circumstances instead argue for benign neglect and the possibility that an Israeli government will emerge that can take risks for peace - and that somehow the Palestinians can glue themselves back together. No outside party can do it for them.
Continuing to pursue Annapolis, as the President seems bent on doing, risks an even greater loss to American leverage and prestige. Failure of a major presidential effort would also set us back in pursuing our vital objectives in Iraq and against Iran and Syria.
Saying, as the State Department undoubtedly will, that we must continue the peace process now that it has started represents what economists call "the fallacy of sunken costs." Noneconomists know this phenomenon as throwing good money after bad.
President Bush urgently needs to pursue Iraq to a successful conclusion. He needs to resuscitate a tough policy against Iran's nuclear program and its ceaseless support of international terrorism. He needs to buttress the fragile democratic government of Lebanon and squelch Syrian efforts to aid Iran's hegemonic aspirations.
All of these critical goals will consume enormous amounts of presidential time and prestige, assets that President Bush can ill afford to squander on Annapolis. We can only hope that he has returned from his trip with this conclusion.
Bolton, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, is author of the book "Surrender Is Not an Option: Defending America at the United Nations and Abroad."
Ping
I love Bolton. Everytime I hear him speak or read his words, I am so grateful for his insights. Anyone surprised why he got no respect at the State Dept.
I do believe that it’s in the Constitution now that every president, in his final year, must make an empty gesture to solve the Arab/Israeli conflict. It’s the law!
Besides, they may hate him in the Middle East, but they don’t hate him as much as the Democrats here.
Bolton still getting less than 1% of the GOP votes so far, my bad John Bolton is not running for the WH in 2008...sucks does it not??
I am more pessimistic about Lebanon. It used to be a majority Christian nation not to long ago but is now a majority Muslim nation.
What is helping the Christians hang on is the minority Sunnis are afraid of a majority Shiite takeover of the country.
IMHO As the Christians bail out, it is only a matter of time until Lebanon becomes an Islamic Republic. - Tom
There will never be peace in the middle east in our life time. Even if we pull out, they will fight each other. If Israel doesn’t stand up and confront the 200 rockets that were fired on them, they deserve more. If we had 100, 50, 20, 10 rockets fired on us we would have gone to all out war. Get out of the middle east but let them know that if they threaten us, we will retaliate without warning.
Mr. Bolton seems to have completely rejected the plans of the Council.
He’s the only member of the CFR that I have seen that is so outspoken against them at every turn. He seems to truly love his country.
Wonder if they’ll be content to kick him out, or if they’ll demand a greater punishment.
Bolton is not in the loop but he is free to sound off like any American.
Bolton nails it.
It seems at teh end of every presidency term we have to endure another lame effort to do the same failed mideast effort and expect a different result.
Bada Ping!
Then you have a man like John Bolton. He plain-talks one thing here, and the same thing there. Bolton is the geniuine article and he isn't even an ex-POW.
I wish Bolton was our Secretary of State. Condi has followed the path of her mentor, Powell, much to the disgrace of our nation. We need Bolton-like leaders at State and the UN.
I wish Bolton was our Secretary of State.”
_____________________________________
He knows what the real situation is and isn’t afraid to express an opinion that may run contrary to the State Department’s.
A true Patriot ~ I’ve always admired him.
Five years, 3,800 dead soldiers and a trillion dollars later, I've lost hope. The Muslim Religion of Death will never allow a free society to develop.
Bolton for Secretary of State!
Bush seems to have aimed at the wrong targets most of the the 2nd term. His initial Social Security push was ill conceived and pretty much doomed the entire term. Now he’s pushing Israel into a stupid “land for peace” deal.
The only decent thing he’s done in the last three years was put General Petreius in charge of Iraq.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.