Posted on 01/19/2008 7:01:26 AM PST by dangus
Fred Thompson has surged EIGHT points in just two days, according to ARG, and is now within striking range of John McCain! In fact, among Republican voters, he is in a dead heat with McCain. However, according to the same poll, Mike Huckabee has surged TEN points in a single day, and now leads McCain by SEVEN points.
Candidate~~~poll of 1/16~~~1/18~~~Republicans of 1/18
Huckabee~~~23%~~~33%~~~37% Thompson~~~13%~~~21%~~~22% McCain~~~33%~~~26%~~~22% Romney~~~20%~~~9%~~~unreported Giuliani~~~4%~~~3%~~~unreported Paul~~~1%~~~2%~~~unreported Keyes~~~2%~~~1%~~~unreported Hunter~~~1%~~~1%~~~unreported
PEOPLE!!! If you have ever wondered whether pollsters flat-out lie, this should be proof. ARG's polls, (like Zogby, and sadly, the once gold-standard Gallup) have been complete nonsense all primary season long. This is nothing more than a desperate attempt to cover-up an unending barrage of obscene lies by last-minute changes, so ARG can claim that they were accurate in the future.
REMEMBER THESE LIES WHEN FLORIDA COMES!!!
Thompson is still a viable candidate!
Is this poll national or for SC?
ARG polls are complete crap, in this case they are underestimating Fred’s surge. Go FRED go!
High five for Dad!
Go, Fred!
Fred has 21%. The 13% is the 1/16 poll. He has 22% of GOP voters.
It’s a hell of a lot better than McCain ahead!
Huckabee~~~23%~~~33%~~~37% Thompson~~~13%~~~21%~~~22% McCain~~~33%~~~26%~~~22% Romney~~~20%~~~9%~~~unreported Giuliani~~~4%~~~3%~~~unreported Paul~~~1%~~~2%~~~unreported Keyes~~~2%~~~1%~~~unreported Hunter~~~1%~~~1%~~~unreported
Me neither. Probably a kid with instant messenger syndrome.
If Fred can finish in top 3 as long as it is within 8-10 points of winner, he is still viable. The MSM and especially MORNING JOE MORONS who proclaimed him ‘dead’ this morning will have to eat their words. It is interesting that the MSM have either given Fred no air time, or have been totally negative about him from the start of the primaries. Almost as if they know he is the true conservative in the race, and is the one candidate who could unite the social and fiscal conservatives. VAST MSM CONSPIRACY I say. All you folks in SC, vote for the man who has the best ideas, not the snake oil Huckabee, the open borders McCain, or the preppy East Coaster Romney. Fred is you man, and the time is now!
Bump, baby!
and bump once more! : )
Jan. 16 at 13%
Jan. 17 at 21%
Jan. 18 at 22%.
“PEOPLE!!! If you have ever wondered whether pollsters flat-out lie, this should be proof. ARG’s polls, (like Zogby, and sadly, the once gold-standard Gallup) have been complete nonsense all primary season long.”
GOT TINFOIL?
Do you REALLY think Huck gained SEVENTEEN points relative to McCain in two days?
WOW, that is a lot. Good for FRed! Also note that McCain has dropped 7 percent (good), Romney has dropped 10 percent (not playing in SC — he’ll win NV), Huckabee went up 10 percent (looks like he’ll win in SC), and Giuliani is floundering another primary in low single digits.
Sorry, not exactly.
1st: Jan 16th, all voters
2nd: Jan 18th, all voters
3rd: Jan 18th, GOP
I think political polls have actually become much less accurate over the last several decades. At one time, when most families had a single publicly-listed land-line telephone, picking a random list of names with only a few controls would produce a representative sampling. Furthermore, there were only a few major polling organizations, so if Gallup called your house, most regarded it as a bit of an opportunity to take part in the civic process and were willing to take the time to provide honest answers.
Today, there are many ways to avoid telephone calls. Furthermore, most people are annoyed because polling in close elections is so frequent, and distrustful because a very large percentage of polls are actually campaign advertisements. The result is that people who have busy lives and the means and sophistication to use wireless or caller IDs probably never speak with pollsters. Random sampling is simply impossible, and the only way for pollsters to generate any meaningful numbers is to carefully normalize the weighting of each demographic group and subgroup according to a pre-definied model. The problem is that those models are fixed, and if there are any unusual factors present (e.g., a property tax issue on the ballot will cause homeowners to turn out, religious voters are strongly motivated by a particular candidate, there's no race in the democratic primary so indepdents will vote in the republican primary), the pollsters can only guess at how that will effect the final numbers.
She is HOT!!
Would love to see her as First Lady!
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