Posted on 01/10/2008 1:11:53 AM PST by Kevmo
What value were polls other than anti-democratic?
The polls had it wrong over New Hampshire. And it was polls that were used to exclude Hunter from the New Hampshire debates, the same debates which proved that polls were wrong. But poll results are still valid for EXCLUDING candidates like Hunter, who actually had a DELEGATE that REAL VOTERs voted for, while Rudy had NONE, but look at his polls! Now the same travesty is happening in South Carolina.
For the Republican side, half right is more than half wrong when you’re relying on the data to exclude someone from the process of democracy. And if they were wrong, how do we know they were right on the republican side? The prevailing assumption should be that they need to PROVE their data is reliable, but by excluding a candidate that could have done well in that state if he had access to the media, they AFFECTED THE OUTCOME.
CONSERVATISM vs. REPUBLICANISM
I don’t see how anyone can defend this action when it affects a conservative. This is a conservative forum, not a GOP one. It’s not just the GOP that’s jumping the shark, they’re taking Free Republic with them. On the latest poll, "I’ll vote R regardless" is leading the pack. I call people who vote this way UIN republicans, because they’ll vote for anything with an R in front of it, regardless of what it means.
Free Republic’s (1/9) poll on Republican candidates’ liberal positions that would be deal killers
http://www.freerepublic.com/perl/poll?poll=210;results=1
thread discussion
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1951136/posts
Free Republic used to be a gathering place for conservatives. Now it’s becoming a gathering place of republicans. Putting republicanism ahead of conservatism is the opposition to the aims of this website.
JimRob says, “We are conservative activists dedicated to defending our rights, defending our constitution, defending our republic and defending our traditional American way of life.” Freepers who are defending the fact that Hunter was excluded from the debates are in direct opposition to this tenet.
From the front page of Free Republic:
Statement by the founder of Free Republic As a conservative site, Free Republic is pro-God, pro-life, pro-family, pro-Constitution, pro-Bill of Rights, pro-gun, pro-limited government, pro-private property rights, pro-limited taxes, pro-capitalism, pro-national defense, pro-freedom, and-pro America. We oppose all forms of liberalism, socialism, fascism, pacifism, totalitarianism, anarchism, government enforced atheism, abortionism, feminism, homosexualism, racism, wacko environmentalism, judicial activism, etc. .... We are not connected to or funded by any political party, news agency, or any other entity. .... We aggressively defend our God-given and first amendment guaranteed rights to free speech, free press, free religion, and freedom of association, as well as our constitutional right to control the use and content of our own personal private property. Despite the wailing of the liberal trolls and other doom & gloom naysayers, we feel no compelling need to allow them a platform to promote their repugnant and obnoxious propaganda from our forum. Free Republic is not a liberal debating society. We are conservative activists dedicated to defending our rights, defending our constitution, defending our republic and defending our traditional American way of life.
This is NOT a GOP website, it says so right there, we have no affiliation with any party... That often catches republicans by surprise.
CHANCES OF WINNING
For those who don’t think we defend the country by voting for people who have next to zero chance of winning , they need to realize that THIS IS COMPLETE BALONEY. Right NOW, on Intrade, the folks who make it their business to deal in “chance of winning” and make money helping others trade on those chances have Hunter and Thompson EQUAL in chance to win the president race.
chances on intrade -- snapshot http://www.intrade.com
2008.PRES.THOMPSON(F)
Fred Thompson to win 2008 US Presidential Election M 0.2 0.4 0.2 41936 -0.1
2008.PRES.FIELD
Field (any other candidate) to win 2008 US Presidential Election M 0.2 0.3 0.2 18051 +0.0
USING INTRADE RESULTS I know that many freepers do not view futures markets with as much confidence as I do. But many of those same freepers view Polls with confidence. The article below is but one example of how futures markets are more reliable than poll results.
The Efficacy Of Prediction Markets The Liberty Papers ^ |
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1922961/posts
Whenever I post results from Intrade, there’s often a back & forth about how this data isn’t reliable, it’s subject to manipulation, all that stuff. All of these items are discussed and explained on this thread.
Futures market data that has proven to be more reliable than polling data, which is why Rasmussen started using Intrade results on their website. Rasmussen is the first polling organization to start using and referencing futures market data. In particular, once you look at the data and the interface, you’ll realize that it’s just a frontpiece for Intrade.
“Our prediction market for Iowa turned out to be very accurate,” Rasmussen said.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1948537/posts?page=53#53
Rasmussen started using Intrade results.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1945852/posts
THE PRACTICAL RESULT
The practical result was a failure in our democracy and it DIRECTLY affected the most conservative man in the race for the GOP presidency. By defending the practice, such freepers are betraying that they are a republican first, conservative second. Usually, it’s because this travesty did not affect their candidate. That is not how conservatism is forwarded. But it IS how republicanism is forwarded.
Hunter, as a result of this cascaded failure of democratic process, is excluced from the South Carolina debate. Recall that Hunter had a statistical tie with Giuliani for the lead in the Spartanburg straw poll. But for the media, that doesn’t mean anything, poll results that they decide are important are the ones being used. Is this what the primary process was designed to do, this early in the game? NO!
Six candidates to participate in historic 2008 S.C. GOP Presidential Candidates Debate (No Hunter)
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1950953/posts
Everyone on FR, anyone that calls themselves a conservative or an American should be outraged. But Free Republic has changed. It looks more each day like a de facto branch of the GOP. There will not be this outrage that once characterized Freepers, because this travesty favors their guy. One more nail in the coffin for conservatism, delivered and gift wrapped by the GOP.
If Thompson drops out, will he most likely endorse his friend McCain? If he does endorse McCain, how will Thompson followers feel? Do most freepers feel that such an endorsement would be a good thing or a bad thing? If such a thing as the exclusion from debates happened to your candidate, what would you expect from the GOP, as well as from Freepers? When you see that not taking place, would that change the way you view Free Republic, as a bastion of conservatism? If Hunter drops out, he’ll most likely endorse Fred. If Hunter drops, then Fred drops, we will all be pissed if the first scenario comes true, and there is no conservative in the race.
Just don’t sit out the general, because you didn’t get your way.
***This is a conservative website, not a GOP website. Go peddle your partisan bull shiite elsewhere. JimRob himself has said he wouldn’t vote for tootyfruityrudy if he gets nominated.
Everyone on FR, anyone that calls themselves a conservative or an American should be outraged.
The lack thereof is most telling!
***Absolutely. It’s because it does not affect their candidate. Partisanship over conservatism. Eventually, when it does affect their candidate, they’ll come asking for our help. My response will be to point to this thread and say that the time for help was now. They cooked their own goose, and what’s sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander — to mix metaphors.
“BTW, the SC GOP don’t give a rip how we feel about Hunter’s exclusion.”
I think the next primary will be in Michigan.
Maybe we should already politely tell the Michigan GOP to make sure that Duncan Hunter, a hero who won a medal fighting for our free speech, will have his free speech in the next debate.
I wonder which media will be hosting the debate there?
Floriduh voter, do you know which media will host the debate in Florida, and the phone number of the Florida GOP?
Actual NH Results (Final Reuters/CSpan/Zogby poll prediction)
McCain, 37% (36%)
Romney, 32% (27%)
Huckabee, 11% (10%)
Giuliani, 9% (9%)
Paul, 8% (9%)
Thompson, 1% (2%)
Hunter, 0% (0%)
That is stunning accuracy.
I was mostly talking about the socialists.
LLS
Yes, I’ve been getting that alot lately. Otherwise, they accuse me of drinking too early in the morning.
That table was inherently biased,
***Then take it up with JimRob on that thread. You seem to be more worried about a private website posting a biased table than the MSM bias Affecting the outcome of the election through undemocratic processes. You should pull your head out and look around. You’re supporting a RINO on a conservative website, and you’re defending an undemocratic travesty. If that’s a reflection of your candidate’s commitment to this republic, no thanks.
The way I see it, Duncan Hunter gave $10,000.00 of his limited resources to help HIS party exclude him.
***Holy Shiite, Batman. That’s another reason not to vote for “whoever has an R in front of his name”.
Better yet, ask yourself why...
***That’s the problem. They’re not asking themselves that, because it does not affect their candidate. Soon enough it will come time to feed the crocodile again. “All that is necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing.”
At least I’ve been “Broken in” already.
If anyone needs to borrow my vaseline, lemme know.
***BOHICA (it’s in the lexicon)
So the news media skews the polls, then relies upon such polls to exclude a candidate, who doesn’t do as well in the primary as one would expect when he had just been 1 of 3 candidates who won delegates in the primary before it. All of this is greeted by a yawn on Free Republic, the supposed bastion of conservatism and constitutionalism.
Did I get that right?
Russ, you’re a RINO. You pass up all the other things I say on that post and focus on the fact that you’re one of about 4-500 posting freeper who have actually been here longer than I have, as if that means you’re a conservative.
If no one is welcome here anymore but conservatives who pass your litmus test or agrees with you (”Spout your garbage on a GOP website”)then Jim might as well shut this place down.
***First of all, that’s hyperbole, a straw argument. Second of all, it is a hypothetical, and I’ll answer your hypothetical if you answer all of mine that were posted in the article. Third, I cannot enforce a litmus test and you know it. Fourth, JimRob is the owner of the website and he has defined conservatism. Does your viewpoint match that definition? Just from the posts on this thread alone, the answer is NO. You’re a partisan, not a conservative. If you don’t like the definition I’m using, get JimRob to change it. Who knows, maybe you’ll manage to get rid of me by doing that because I will be the one who is not welcome here, since I am very comfortable with the current definition.
JimRob posts his definition of conservatism on the front page and it’s duplicated in this article. How is that small tent?
We need to find out when the NEXT debate will be, and who’s running it, and flood them via phone calls, and tell them we want Duncan Hunter, one of our American heros, to be allowed to debate!
***Bump that.
would (have been) happy as a clam had he been the nominee.
***Let’s see, there’s been 3 primaries, 47 more to go and you’re speaking in past tense. Got a crystal ball under your kimono?
Is that fair? Not necessarily. But it is what happened.
***Thank you for saying that. So, when the GOP nominates some RINO and the socons sit this one out, you and I know what will happen: electoral suicide. Is that fair? Well, in this case I would actually say YES. The fatalistic approach, “but it has happened” is exactly what I will be using when some RINO wants me to vote for their candidate.
Romney supporters are not to blame.
***Sure you are. What makes you think you’re exempt? If you love this republic, you’d do something about this tragedy.
Now we must just move on and make due with what is still available.
***True enough. But why are polls still being used? Why is the GOP not withdrawing its sponsorship and cooperation with any further debates that exclude candidates who are on the ballot? Because the Rockefeller Republicans are angling for a takeover, and they just might succeed. But take heart, I think Romney may be suitable to these RINOs, so your candidate is probably safe.
Their arrogance has really been the last straw for me.
You’re right. Most Romney supporters like myself ARE compromising some of our conservative values.
***Very, very interesting admission. Thanks for being candid and honest.
We did the same thing when we elected Bush the Elder. (not that I was happy with GHWB). We (I) do the same thing each and every time I vote for almost every lower candidate from US Senate to House to State Rep. to local councilman.
***AHEM. This is NOT the ELECTION. THIS IS THE PRIMARIES. You don’t compromise during the primaries, you compromise during the election. You got the cart before the horse. You really do.
VERY FEW are rock ribbed take-no-prisoners conservatives.
***Hunter is. This is the Primaries. Compromising is for the election. Thanks for your implicit endorsement of Hunter. Can we count on your vote?
If THAT is the absolute criteria for support, we all might just as well just never vote or get involved in politics at all.
***It should be, for the primaries.
Can you name me three other candidates outside of Duncan Hunter whom you view as acceptable.
***I’ll answer your question if you answer my hypotheticals I posted in the article.
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