Posted on 12/06/2007 5:33:50 AM PST by jdm
Once seen as an inevitability, Hillary Clinton may not win the first two contests in the primaries -- and that may change the entire Democratic race. Having fallen into no better than a tie with Barack Obama in Iowa, Clinton now has lost significant ground in New Hampshire. She now leads by only six points, and her momentum has completely dissipated:
Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton holds a narrow lead over Sen. Barack Obama among Democratic presidential candidates in New Hampshire, a state whose primary her campaign has viewed as a potential firewall should she stumble in the Iowa caucuses, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.
Clinton is widely seen as the party's best experienced and most electable presidential candidate, but with most Democratic voters in the state looking for a fresh approach to governing, the first-in-the-nation primary has become fiercely competitive.
With New Hampshire voters set to go to the polls on Jan. 8, Clinton (N.Y.) got 35 percent in the new poll, with Obama (Ill.) close behind at 29 percent. Former senator John Edwards (N.C.) ran third with 17 percent and New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson was fourth at 10 percent. Rep. Dennis J. Kucinich (Ohio), Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr. (Del.) and Sen. Christopher J. Dodd (Conn.) each registered 3 percent or less.
Just a few weeks ago, Hillary led Obama by over 20 points in New Hampshire. Iowa looked tough but winnable. New Hampshire, as the Post puts it, was Hillary's firewall. What happened?
Hillary started shooting herself in the foot. Never particularly inspiring, Clinton bungled a presidential debate by shifting in the middle of a single question on illegal immigrant drivers licenses. Instead of shrugging it off, she poured gasoline on the fire by switching her position twice again in the days afterward. Inexplicably, she has shifted into panic mode since, saying that she would start questioning Obama's character -- a strange battleground for the Clintons to choose -- and wound up criticizing Obama for a kindergarten essay he wrote about wanting to be President.
She wanted to highlight his lifelong lust for power. That again seems an odd issue for a carpetbagging Senator and former First Lady trying to get back into the White House. Hillary's entire campaign appears to have contracted a sudden case of tone-deafness. And even if she wins in New Hampshire, the inevitability has dissipated, and Democrats have to wonder what she'll do when put in the pressure cooker of a really tough general election campaign.
The problem for Democrats lies in their thin bench. Barack Obama will get blown away in a general election. He has no experience in national campaigning, and it has shown on the stump. People like him more than they do Hillary, but he's significantly farther to the left, and the moderates will not split in their favor. Edwards is a worse option than Obama Bill Richardson would be their best alternate, but he hasn't done much to inspire anyone on the hustings either. Al Gore may have been an option, but the time has almost run out for that kind of draft.
The Democrats have a huge problem on their hands, and it's getting worse by the day.
I would say this is quite significant.
All I can say is Go Obama
That is a given. What was not in the script is that the ratmedia would turn on her to soothe their guilty feelings about not backing the “Black guy.” In its hubris the ratmedia believes it can attack the beast just enough to fool people into thinking they are open minded - BULL SHIITE.
Hillary started shooting herself in the foot. Never particularly inspiring, Clinton bungled a presidential debate by shifting in the middle of a single question on illegal immigrant drivers licenses. Instead of shrugging it off, she poured gasoline on the fire by switching her position twice again in the days afterward. Inexplicably, she has shifted into panic mode since, saying that she would start questioning Obama's character -- a strange battleground for the Clintons to choose -- and wound up criticizing Obama for a kindergarten essay he wrote about wanting to be President.
Captain Ed should also have pointed out that after her debate bungling, she allowed her campaign managers to react by blaming Tim Russert for picking on her with a tough question and also whining about 'piling on' by her Democratic opponents. Hillary's not accustomed to being stood up to, and she was damned unhappy about it. The fact that blaming and whining were her default responses speaks volumes about her weak insides...
Totally agree. I think the Democrats may come to rely on either John Edwards, Bill Richardson, or Al Gore. Not good choices.
I half think that the Convention will deadlock and end up naming Gore as a white knight at the last minute. He will then lose, but burnish his reputation. He'd be thrilled -- I think he wants to be wanted, but doesn't want to win.
2008 is a GREAT year for Republicans to choose the best man rather than some guy "who can win". I maintain that the best man CAN win. Vote for Duncan Hunter!
IIRC, Hubba Bubba came in 3rd in NH in 1992 and declared himself “The Comeback Kid”...................
Their love affair with the Clintons is and has been for years the foremost problem the Democrats have. Billy Boy the “Former, Mr. No-Pants President” and his ‘wife’ have been skipping hand-in-hand from crime to crime in their entire public lives and political careers.
What is worse, the MSM in this country has behaved toward those two and their crimes in a way that is treacherously disingenuous if not outright incompetent. The MSM’s perpetual whitewashing efforts for Clinton crimes and misdemeanors are a fraud on the public second to none other and unless these ‘journalists’ admit to being plum-dumb we must think that they’re the most accomplished liars on earth.
Cankle fatigue! People falling sick of her.
Regards . . . Penny
Like in the horror movies, unless she is truly dead, she can and will come back to life. Not until someone else gets the nomination is her run really over.
I don’t have to explain to FReepers all of Hillary’s bad points but IMHO, I think the reason for her very quick slide is simply ARROGANCE - as she pointed out on a recent tv interview that “she WILL not lose and she WILL win the nomination.” In another statement, she slipped and said “the First Clinton” administration. Even if you like her “ideas”, nobody likes ARROGANCE and she’s turned off alot of people who decided that “No Hillary, you WILL lose.”
From what I can remember about this, I think the elected delegates are committed to their specific candidate for the first ballot only, or two or three. After that, they can change their minds. I believe the rules were similar for both major parties.
If that holds true and nobody wins a clear majority in the early primaries with several different folks winning different primaries on Feb 5, we could end up with two conventions where the nominee is not decided prior to the convention.
Just think of the possibilities if that happens, or even if one of the two parties has a chance to react to events from February 5 until the convention dates in late August.
This is almost as good a result as the fact that, except for Gov. Romney, none of the top contenders on the Republican side have spent a lot of money so far. Maybe we will get back to a 2008 election that is actually decided based on a candidate's beliefs and message, not the amount of dollars involved!
It is quite explicable... They know who and what she really is, and that any air let out of her balloon will be nigh unto irreplaceable.
If she urinates on herself in public, she’ll go right back up 20 points in the lefty polls.
All I can say is “YAY”.
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