Posted on 11/21/2007 11:56:00 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
This Washington Post-ABC News poll was conducted by telephone November 14-18, 2007, among a random sample of 400 Iowans likely to vote in the Republican caucus. The results have a five percentage point margin of sampling error. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, Pa. *= less than 0.5 percent --snip--
4. (FOR SCREENING PURPOSES) If the caucuses were being held today, would you attend the (Democratic Party caucus) or the (Republican Party caucus) in your precinct? Democratic caucus Republican caucus 11/18/07 0 100 7/31/07 0 100
5. If the Republican caucus were being held today, and the candidates were: (Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, Tom Tancredo, Ron Paul, and Fred Thompson), who would you support? NET LEANED VOTE: (Continued)
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
Picking up momentum is not the same as taking the lead. I think Fred is picking up momentum now.
At what point does Huckabee have to emerge as the front runner, or even as second in the national polls? He has not hit those milestones yet, so what makes you think he has any more chance of reaching them than Thompson?
“You people constantly turn reality on its head and constantly accuse anyone questioning your absurd spin as shilling for other candidates.”
I’ve yet to pick a candidate. But a lot of what you write, I’ve seen as well. I still remember some of the “blindness” leading up to the 06 mid-terms.
Plenty of supporters have a blind spot about “their guy”. While I’m not against FDT, it’s hard to take seriously the argument that the MSM is afraid of him, or that he’s really way ahead, or he’ll turn it on when it counts. I’m still considering my options, and every time I’ve seen a FDT thread, it seems to be that his supporters don’t have much in the way of answers, just the same unproven talking points. As some one who is trying to gather info and pick a candidate to support(I want to win in 08) FDT doesn’t look very attractive at the moment. He’s been trending down for a few weeks, and a couple of points bump (he’s now tied with 3 others) is supposed to be proof that he’s “on the move”. Sorry to have to disagree with anybody, but the fact that notable conservative pundits think he’s dead in the water, does in fact factor in.
You are absurd.
Oh, really? Well, ask anyone here about the fight against the amnesty bill back around when you signed up, and my role in getting FReepers and lurkers on the phones to Congress to kill that travesty. What part did you play?
Rasmussen had Thompson at 14 a week ago. They had him at 19 a month before that. The last ABC News/Wash. Post poll had him at 13. Yes, he's bounced back a few points from recent lows, but there's no surge on the part of Thompson by any reasonable definition. The guy that is surging, much to my surprise, is Huckabee. He's really moved up the chart.
I don't need to defend my very active and intense participation in the immigration fight to ask you --repeatedly -- how you can heap distortion upon distortion in an effort to buoy your badly sagging candidate.
Fred's not a bad guy...just an extremely disappointing candidate by all evidence up to this point.
I don't ask you to be as honest and blunt as I am about it...just get a tiny bit real (and leave off the effort to discredit everyone -- FReeper, conservative pundit, or MSM reporter -- who brings you displeasing reality).
” Picking up momentum is not the same as taking the lead. I think Fred is picking up momentum now.
At what point does Huckabee have to emerge as the front runner, or even as second in the national polls? He has not hit those milestones yet, so what makes you think he has any more chance of reaching them than Thompson?”
Sorry but except for a bump of a few points this week, FDT has been trending down. Huckabee has never been considered one of the top tier, so the fact that he’s not running in front doesn’t hurt him. The fact that he’s in a statistical dead heat with 2 top tier candidates helps him though. I don’t know how long FDT can run a distant second or 3rd and still be considered viable.
Unfortunately, what with public schools and the entitlement mentality, it seems the nanny staters outnumber the federalists. I hope I'm wrong.
Didn’t Hume on Fox just declare Fred dead yesterday??????
The telephone poll surveyed 545 likely Democratic primary voters and 503 likely Republican primary voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points for Democrats and 4.5 percentage points for Republicans.
Wrong thread. Disregard please.
I completely agree with your commentary....even if it is too nice! LOL (These FredHeads don't deserve nice! Nice is too good for them! ~grin~)
“Fred’s not a bad guy...just an extremely disappointing candidate by all evidence up to this point.”
I have to agree with you. I think FDT would make a splendid president, but I don’t think he can win. He started much later than the other candidates, and has yet to make up ground for such a late start. BTW one of the things I’ve seen posted on this very thread is that FDT is trailing because all the other guys have had a year headstart, and have been actively campaigning and spending money. That’s not much of an argument if FDT really wanted to be president, he could have started at any time, as the others did. He had the same opportunity and info everybody else did, so if he were serious about running, why the coy stance for a few months while everybody else got geared up for Iowa and New Hampshire?
Oops that was McPain
Coincidence? I don't think so.
Now that’s just plain mean LOL
“so if he were serious about running, why the coy stance for a few months while everybody else got geared up for Iowa and New Hampshire?”
The thing to remember is that Fred didn’t set out to run... He was recruited. He responded to a grassroots campaign to get him to run. The problem that he was insanely over-hyped, as his supporters perhaps cynically believed that television fame would equate into instant victory.
His reason for not entering the race earlier is understandable - 1) that he had no intention of doing so until conservatives around the nation made clear they wanted him to run. 2) The widely discussed problems a Thompson candidacy would create for Law & Order.
But, even though buzz died down over the summer, as people got tired of playing the guessing game, Fred still experienced a legitimate surge upon announcing. But he’s made poor decisions - skipping the New Hampshire debate has put him in 6th place in that state. Woe to the candidate who underestimates the ego of the early primary voter.
Fred could still win... If he can come out aggressively, show he means business, talk about some of his great ideas, talk about why the NEED exists for a conservative alternative to Giuliani, and Huckabee, and Romney. He’s just not done enough to establish these guys weak points. Look, no one wants to hurt what might be the eventual nominee. But if Fred wants to win he’s going to have to draw a line in the sand and show that he’s on one side of it, and everyone else is on the other.
I’m willing to support Fred, but he’s not going to get that support on fame. He has to prove he’s the man for the job.
“The thing to remember is that Fred didn’t set out to run... He was recruited. “
That may be, but he’s been around long enough to know what letting himself be recruited meant. If he had no earlier intention of entering the race why did he let himself be “talked” into it. Especially if he didn’t really want to actively campaign. You are correct that fame isn’t enough, so why did he wait so long after he knew he was being actively recruited? In my opinion (and that’s all it is...an opinion)
Fred didn’t consider that the other front runners were running to win. Maybe he thought just entering the race would be enough. I personally don’t think that’s going to get it done, and recent polling doesn’t support that either.
These polls are about like tits on a boar
Wow. Fred Thompson “surging” in Iowa.
If you read the actual Washington Post article, which lists the new poll and their last one in July, Fred and Mitt have each moved up a WHOPPING two points (that’s a “2”) in Iowa over the last four months.
In the same time period, Gov. Mike Huckabee has moved up 16 points into a statistical tie for first with Romney, nearly ten points ahead of Fred.
Go back and fix that headline.
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