Is Fred Dead or Just Resting?

Real Clear Politics ^ | 20 November 2007 | Tom Bevan

[Spiff]

November 20, 2007

Is Fred Dead or Just Resting?

TOM BEVAN

In early October I argued there was a disconnect between the way the pundits and voters viewed Fred Thompson's candidacy. Sitting here six weeks later, however, evidence continues to pour in that Thompson has completely underwhelmed the Republican electorate.

It seems like every other day a new poll comes out in a key early state showing Fred losing ground - sometimes significant ground. Indeed, if you take a look at groups that have conducted at least two surveys since early September (when Thompson officially entered the race and began campaigning) the trend lines are unmistakable:

Thompson is now running a distant fourth in Iowa, has almost dropped off the charts to sixth place in New Hampshire, is running in 3rd place in South Carolina about 4 points behind Romney and Giuliani, and has fallen well off the pace into 3rd in Florida.

The national polls aren't as important, but still reflect the same downward trend:

Thompson has shed seven and a half points in the RCP Average since he officially entered the race.

This is more than a candidate not being able to sustain a "bump." In fact, outside of the NRLC endorsement last week, it's hard to find any positive evidence for Thompson at the moment. To the contrary, backers of Thompson are now expressing doubts to the press.

So can Thompson turn it around? As we all know by now, anything is possible in politics. And, as is usually the case, it all starts with Iowa. With New Hampshire effectively off the table, Thompson's campaign cannot afford a poor showing in Iowa or it'll be on life support by the time South Carolina rolls around.

Indeed, Larry Kudlow reports in his column today that the Thompson folks are now focusing heavily on Iowa:

[Thompson's] campaign strategists told me they are pouring tons of money into Iowa advertising. They see a strong opportunity for a Thompson surge in the state, undermining Romney and inflicting damage on Giuliani.

Watch and see if the NRLC endorsement and increased spending in Iowa spark a turnaround for Thompson. At this point, it's his best (and perhaps only) hope of staying in the game long enough to score a win in South Carolina - a state no eventual Republican nominee for president has ever lost.

[fieldmarshaldj]

Neither Ryan or Poshard were gems. Turned out Poshard was a plagarist and committed that fraud in order to obtain a doctoral degree. Last I heard, he is still serving as Southern Illinois University President.

[flaglady47]

“Shall we post Huckster’s record of shame ? Let’s start with his browbeating Christians on supporting illegals. I’d like to show that meathead my next door neighbors. He can come move in with me and get audiologically raped several times a week like I was for 3 1/2 hours today. He can kiss my a$$ before I’d vote for him for President.”

LOL! At last something we can agree upon! I especially like your “audiologically raped” line. Having been a victim of same upon occasion, I totally agree with your analogy. Good one.

[fieldmarshaldj]

There are only 2 legitimate Conservative candidates on the GOP side. That’s Fred and Duncan Hunter. The rest are phonies, fakes, or frauds.

[dragnet2]

I’ve been watching Spiff for a long time. I think the AMs need to show him and the Fred haters the door.

Yeah, everyone who don't support Thompson is a commie...Lets ban everyone who doesn't fall in line....There must be no dissension.

Whooa...

[Romneyfor President2008]

I’m over 30, so I feel silly calling people names like that. But I do believe you are having a lot of fun. Maybe you’re having more fun than I am? LOL

[fieldmarshaldj]

No need to apologize for being strident in support of Conservative candidates. Those so-called Conservatives that think by moving to the left we stand to gain are going to be in for a shock — it never works. That’s the very reason why we lost so many formerly Republican states, we didn’t stick to our principles, we sold out to slick liberal RINOs, and you see where it got us. As I stated in another post, it ain’t the Democrats that made a lot of those states more liberal and more Democrat — it was liberal RINO leaders that did. They’re the real enemy.

[Kevmo]

RTL officially endorsed the now incarcerated George Ryan over pro-life Democrat Glenn Poshard in 2002. We were supposed to “look past” the fact Ryan picked the most hardcore abortionist running mate he could, because ol’ George was alledgedly “the best all around pro-life conservative candidate running” That worked out well, eh?
***Thanks for posting that. I suppose there will be some of this scrutiny of past RTL endorsements. I thought at the time that their endorsement was a major coup for Fred, but it was greeted with a yawn and further dropping polls and lethargy over at Intrade.

.

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Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1926032/posts
Posted on 11/15/2007 3:43:17 AM PST by Kevmo

[GOP_Lady]

Okay, let’s all relax a little here. No need to have snaked-oiled trolls (ewwww). :-)

[fieldmarshaldj]

Of course, it also depends upon whom we nominate. We put up a RINO whose entire platform is, “Vote for me, I’m just as liberal as Hillary, but I’m not Hillary,” and we will deserve to lose in a landslide. As Goldwater said, offer the people a choice, not an echo.

[fieldmarshaldj]

I’m still waiting for that list of names, where is it ?

[Plutarch]

Sorry, Spiffy. Mitt ainÂ’t gonna be nominee. Its either Rooty or Fred.

Fred? Why, because you say so? Do you have a poll he isn't dropping in? An authority who agrees with you? Any evidence at all save an endorsement that has shown no benefit anywhere? Spiff presents facts, you're wishing and hoping.

[Reagan Man]

So you’re a conservative-libertarian willing to put aside your politics to vote for a liberal-moderate, big government Republican named Mitt Romney. Someone who places political expediency above all else.

I’ve been coming to FR for over 8 years now. The objectives of this forum have always been crystal clear. FReepers promote conservative candidates, advance conservatism and defend the Constittuion.

The #1 goal of Free Republic for most of 2007, has been to knock off Rooty and get the best conservative candidate the GOP nomination.

Romney is no conservative. Supporting someone who isn’t a conservative is a self-defeating proposition.

[fieldmarshaldj]

See, I don’t understand here. You should like Huckster, he’s the Southern Romney. Why is it you object to him but not Romney ? They’re two peas in a pod. I think it may be because Huckster is trying to steal Romney’s act.

[fieldmarshaldj]

The question is, is this is a website that supports liberals running under the GOP banner or Conservatives ? If some open Democrat supporting troll came onto FR to engage in vicious attacks on Conservative Republicans he’d be banned tout de suite. Why don’t liberal RINOs who do the same thing not banned ? They’re not contributing zilch to the discussion except for provoking flamewars and wasting JimRob’s bandwith.

[fabian]

because Romney gave in some in order to do much good in Mass. does not make him a fraud. We tend to judge those who are not as conservative as we would like. Reagan was not altogether without flaws and blew it with the islamic whackos in regards to them murdering all of those marines. And not all of his choices on the supreme court turned out very conservative. So did that make him a fraud or phoney? He did much good just as Romney has done in his business life and in government in regards to lowering taxes.

[fieldmarshaldj]

Funny, I don’t feel silly telling the truth on people (and I’m over 30, too).

And I’m still waiting for that list of names.

[fieldmarshaldj]

I’m sorry, you must not have gotten the memo. Romney had no use for Reagan.

“Look, I was an independent during the time of Reagan-Bush. I’m not trying to take us back to Reagan-Bush.” — Romney

[flaglady47]

“They’re two peas in a pod. I think it may be because Huckster is trying to steal Romney’s act.”

Because they are only two peas in the same pod to you, not to me. The Huckster has had ethical problems (like swiping furniture from the Gov House, and other misuse of funds), the Huckster supports tuition for illegals, Mitt doesn’t, the Huckster would legalize illegal aliens, Mitt would not, the Huckster is like George Bush in that he has a messianic bent and Mitt does not, the Huckster has no background other than as Gov of an extremely small state that spawned Bill Clinton (from the same city of Hope they both are), and Mitt was CEO of a major company that he started, was a Gov, saved the Olympics and made it into a money making event, has an MBA and is a good capitalist, and hasn’t spent his career living off the public dole. There, enough said, as I’m tired now, and don’t feel like writing an epic.

[GOP_Lady]

Ohioan, bud, we’re all in this together. We’re all at FR because we aren’t libs. Remember, I am as upset with Taft as you are. Let’s not be too angry now. Good night, everyone. Enjoy your evening. Happy Thanksgiving. God bless.

[fabian]

I don’t like that...maybe he is sorry he said it? His policies on lower taxes were very much like Reagans, were they not?