Is Fred Dead or Just Resting?

Real Clear Politics ^ | 20 November 2007 | Tom Bevan

[Spiff]

November 20, 2007

Is Fred Dead or Just Resting?

TOM BEVAN

In early October I argued there was a disconnect between the way the pundits and voters viewed Fred Thompson's candidacy. Sitting here six weeks later, however, evidence continues to pour in that Thompson has completely underwhelmed the Republican electorate.

It seems like every other day a new poll comes out in a key early state showing Fred losing ground - sometimes significant ground. Indeed, if you take a look at groups that have conducted at least two surveys since early September (when Thompson officially entered the race and began campaigning) the trend lines are unmistakable:

Thompson is now running a distant fourth in Iowa, has almost dropped off the charts to sixth place in New Hampshire, is running in 3rd place in South Carolina about 4 points behind Romney and Giuliani, and has fallen well off the pace into 3rd in Florida.

The national polls aren't as important, but still reflect the same downward trend:

Thompson has shed seven and a half points in the RCP Average since he officially entered the race.

This is more than a candidate not being able to sustain a "bump." In fact, outside of the NRLC endorsement last week, it's hard to find any positive evidence for Thompson at the moment. To the contrary, backers of Thompson are now expressing doubts to the press.

So can Thompson turn it around? As we all know by now, anything is possible in politics. And, as is usually the case, it all starts with Iowa. With New Hampshire effectively off the table, Thompson's campaign cannot afford a poor showing in Iowa or it'll be on life support by the time South Carolina rolls around.

Indeed, Larry Kudlow reports in his column today that the Thompson folks are now focusing heavily on Iowa:

[Thompson's] campaign strategists told me they are pouring tons of money into Iowa advertising. They see a strong opportunity for a Thompson surge in the state, undermining Romney and inflicting damage on Giuliani.

Watch and see if the NRLC endorsement and increased spending in Iowa spark a turnaround for Thompson. At this point, it's his best (and perhaps only) hope of staying in the game long enough to score a win in South Carolina - a state no eventual Republican nominee for president has ever lost.

[Spiff]

I bet my Dad, who is a stone cold liberal who claims he’s an Independent, 5 bucks at 20 to 1 odds last March Fred would take the nomination. I think I’m out 5 bucks. I sent Fred some money early on but he is not exciting me. I want to see a lot of that in your face criticism of the left he is capable of. He’s not producing. I’m lost. Hunter is great but mismanaged. Who should I root for at this point? I need someone to lead me...

Root for the guy who has been living the traditional family values Republican's claim to support, who has the executive experience, the business and managerial experience, the money, the campaign organization, the clean reputation, the right conservative Republican views on the issues, and the energy not only to defeat liberal Rudy Giuliani, but to win the White House against whatever Democrat makes it to the general election. Of all the Republican candidates, Mitt Romney has the most successful leadership experience.

[fieldmarshaldj]

"That’s not a very big tent you’re under, not even much of an umbrella."

You can find a big tent at the circus. That's where the clowns are.

[fieldmarshaldj]

Ron Prawn.

[Reagan Man]

>>>>>Heck, I even bought into the hype from the media and elsewhere and initially supported him.

You've never supported Fred. Although after all our Stop Rudy efforts, I thought you would choose to back a viable conservative like Fred. Instead of a liberal-moderate like Romney. You're pathetic.

[GOP_Lady]

Oh, Spiff, fieldmarshaldj is an ok dude, too. ;-)

[fieldmarshaldj]

Give me names. You list all of the Republicans your great leader elected in Massachusetts.

Start with Governor.

[hole_n_one]

Apparently you need a joke to slap you upside the head to get it.

Why would you be asked to source your own contemporaneous statement?

I was trying to be funny and you get all inquisitive.

[ejonesie22]

Actually Spiff, I think the members of Free Republic are pretty good barometers of what a real conservative looks like.

I have asked you this a couple of times and you won’t answer, so I go again.

What is more likely, that 86% of Free Republic are idiots because we don’t see Mitt Romney as a conservative or that you are wrong/biased/whatever?

Hum...

No reply again...

Odd that...

Good night all, I'll check back in the Morning.

[flaglady47]

“I’m suggesting that if Romney had not brought so much of his own money to the game, he’s be competing with Thommy Thompson and Sam Brownback for the drop-out vote.”

Well then bully for Mitt for having been such a good capitalist and businessman that he made the money he can now use to end up in the first tier of candidates, rather than in the 2nd tier along w/Duncan Hunter (a fine man, but no money), Tancredo (a fine man w/no money) and Huckabee (a shyster w/no money). Money proves useful, as John McCain is finding out, because he hasn’t got any either. I might add that Romney has raised millions in contributions, along with using some of his own money. His fundraising is right up there and better than McCain’s, Thompson’s, and second only to Guiliani’s, although that has fluctuated back and forth between the two of them as to who has raised the most at any given time.

Plus whether you like him or not, a lot of people out there do. He is a gentleman, married to only one woman for life, leads a clean and decent lifestyle, and whatever else you may think of him, you can’t take that away from him. He leads the most conservative lifestyle of all the candidates with the exception of Duncan Hunter (whom I love but appears to be going nowhere fast).

[hole_n_one]

That one needs work!

[fieldmarshaldj]

Y’know, if Romney can run for President, why not Bob Taft ? Both went a long way into crippling or burying their state party’s fortunes. I mean, really, is it too much to ask that the Republicans we run for President have actual successful track records for not laying waste to both the Conservative agenda AND their local parties ?

[BreezyDog]

Thats great but how far into the tank are you for him? Are you a paid op to post here? Because it seems you are disparaging one candidate in favor of another.

[restornu]

[fieldmarshaldj]

I’ll ask you the same question. You list all of those Republicans that your “successful executive” helped elect to office in Massachusetts.

Start with Governor.

[Spiff]

Nope, not final. But a judge, and a good one at that. Anybody who is knowingly informed to the facts and yet still supports a liberal party-destroying RINO like Romney is NOT a Republican.

I'm still waiting for your conservative Republican credentials so that I can determine if you have any credibility at all. Is it all just ranting and raving on the internet, insulting everyone who disagrees with you, or have you actually ever done something within the party to earn yourself some credibility? Are you a voice of actual experience or just a bunch of noise?

Or are you the best supporter that your opponents could ask for as you're really helping them with your unrestrained diplay of loud-mouthed ignorance. I'm surprised that some of the other Thompson supporters on this forum haven't told you to cool it because you're certainly not helping any of them make their case or help their candidate.

[fieldmarshaldj]

"Don't worry, Hillary. Between you and me, we'll crush the GOP to dust. Those Conservatives won't know what hit them."

[flaglady47]

“Anybody who is knowingly informed to the facts and yet still supports a liberal party-destroying RINO like Romney is NOT a Republican.”

You are such a johnny-one-note. And so vituperative in your support for your candidate. I don’t think Fred would like having you as his advocate or spokesman. Fred is a southern gentleman, and frankly, my dear, you are not.

[Reagan Man]

>>>>>He leads the most conservative lifestyle of all the candidates ...

LMAO Mitt's 35 years of support for Roe v Wade and abortion on demand sure struck a cord with the National Right to Life Committee. The NRTL endorsed Fred Thompson. They thought Romney's recent conversion on the abortion issue was extremely troubling. The fact Romney is no conservative didn't help matters.

[flaglady47]

“Those Conservatives won’t know what hit them.”

I look at that picture and all this conservative can think is what a handsome couple the Romney’s are. Comes from living clean.

[fieldmarshaldj]

"I'm still waiting for your conservative Republican credentials so that I can determine if you have any credibility at all."

9 years on this website, Hoss, and 6 1/2 as an active poster. I know what your credentials are every time you hit "send" on a post. You're not a Conservative and not a Republican.