Posted on 11/19/2007 12:23:47 PM PST by Hydroshock
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Home builders' confidence stayed at record low levels in a November reading released Monday, as a slight uptick in buyer traffic was balanced out by a slightly more pessimistic view six months down the road.
The overall National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo index was 19, which was the same as the upwardly revised October reading.
The index measuring how builders view buyer traffic edged up to a reading of 17 from 15 in October. But the subindex measuring builders' view of the market six months from now slipped to a record low 25 from 26 a month ago.
The survey of builders found 57 percent now expect a poor market for new homes six months from now. Only 5.7 percent are looking for a good housing market that soon.
"The message from today's report is that builders do not see any significant change in housing market conditions as compared to last month," said NAHB Chief Economist David Seiders. "While they continue to work down inventories of unsold homes and reposition themselves for the market's eventual recovery, they realize it will be some time before market conditions support an upswing in building activity - most likely by the second half of 2008."
(Excerpt) Read more at money.cnn.com ...
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A year to recover at least....maybe 2.
Yes with exclamation points! Think out to 2015 or 2020. Some websites full of daily info on this subject try: www.ml-implode.com and www.nychousingbubble.blogspot.com and Roubisis http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/ ...it is worth a great deal to go back as far as August of this year in these sitess to get the full picture... eom
After the subprime ‘tapers’ off in early 2009, the ALT_A cranks up in a big way and peaks disastrously in 2011. Some major banks (CITI first) may be facing failure by then also. Credit card crunch bubble to begin bursting in not more than a few months impacting the 70% of consumer spending that makes up the GDP. Not happy, but necessary reading, to keep up in the easiest way with this expanding systemic mess.
Layoffs for illegals, first?
When the subprime problem starts to taper off -
how soon before leftist/democrats demand that more credit be extended to the poor because to do otherwise is discriminatory...
That’s what caused the subprime problem to start with.
Any good news?
More on CHairman Bernanke’s obligation to lower those interest rates to around 3.75% or less.
Nothing is more cyclical than the housing/real estate market. Boom and bust. Easy to predict “fall of the sky” around the corner when you’re at the bottom of the cyclical trough.
Not saying there won’t be continued fallout from this. Locally, the housing market overbuilt well beyond real demand. To some extent, the credit crunch was a reaction to the attempts to sustain a boom beyond its reasonable limit. It might make the “bust” a little longer than usual, but eventually there will be a rebound. Maybe softer than usual.
This will all shake out over time without economic collapse.
This is all a MSM canard to promote the leftist socialist party adding control of the White House to their control of Congress. And that’s where the real danger to the economy lies.
No he needs to raise the rates to hedge off inflation.
The definition of Oxymoron. Central banks raising rates destroys economies, throwing nitro upon any signs of inflation.
What is the ALT-A ??
Layoffs for illegals, first?
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The insiders at HXM (homes de Mexico??) have been cashing in recently... it’s stock has remained strong as money flow out of the US into Mex. has stayed up ... but the sentiment seems to indicate that even if the money is there that back home in Mexico they are unwilling to bet the family on buying a house with uncertain income going forward...
To answer your question ,,, I sincerely hope so ,, I’m short HXM ...
What is the ALT-A ??
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“A” is good/great credit ,, a very low risk borrower... “Alt-A” are the “liar loans” where people WITH NO INCOME OR EVEN JOB VERIFICATION stated their income to qualify (alternately qualified as an “A” borrower),, this was a Bush admin gimme for the illegals to get them to buy housing with no documentation ,,, of course the open door was taken by hundreds of thousands (if not millions) of US citizens who bought their way into housing WAY over their heads by simply fraudulently stating they made 2x or 3x what they actually make...
Alternative mortgage payment mortgs which allow in any given month an alternate payment schedule to suit mortgagees with variable monthly income...these are granted to persons with much higher than subprime (supposedly)credit ratings... they are also ARM rates based on the British LIBOR (London Interbank Offered Rate) which could be quite high next year...this rate is what determines Subprime ARM interest rates also. All mortgages in England revert to ARMS after an initial 1-2 year fixed rate...England is being hit especially hard.
A and Alt A mostly indicate credit score and debt to income ratio. I can state my income and be A paper, if I’m self-employed.<p.The group that is most in trouble are the sub-prime, lowest FICO scores.
Six months, say the flaming optimists? I thought the consensus just last month was that housing was not expected to turn around until 2009. Did I miss half of ‘08 already???
“Buy now!!! The time has never been better!!!”
Sincerely, the NAR.
Yes... Home prices will come back to the mean for those young couples and others who were patient, smart, and waited.
I’m betting we see 3% before we see 6%. Don’t hold me to that, but I think Burnyankee is going to cave to the markets and lower rates all during the recession. Probelm is, it won’t help the liquidity crunch one tiny bit, and therefore neither will it pull us out of the recession. The subprime/ARM-reset/liquidity crisis is going to have to unwind all by itself, just like the quote McGee keeps posting.
b
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