Posted on 11/15/2007 3:49:47 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
Republican presidential hopeful Fred Thompson brushed off concerns Thursday about his single-digit showings in recent Iowa and New Hampshire polls, saying he expects a new television ad on immigration will help boost his numbers. "In the past, a lot of things have changed in the Iowa presidential elections - Howard Dean can tell you that," he said, referring to 2004 when Dean's third-place showing in Iowa derailed his campaign for the Democratic nomination.
"So you've just got to do what you do and keep at it and understand that the end of the day is all that counts," he said.
CBS/New York Times polls in Iowa and New Hampshire show Thompson at 9 and 5 percent for Republicans, respectively. Mitt Romney leads both states with 34 percent in New Hampshire and 27 percent in Iowa.
Thompson, who was in New York for a fundraiser and a closed town-hall meeting, said he expects his recently released television ad in Iowa to help sway voters in that crucial state. The ad stresses the need to secure U.S. borders and enforce immigration laws.
Illegal immigration has divided Republicans and remains a critical issue to many GOP voters. This past summer, Arizona Sen. John McCain supported legislation that would have strengthened border security and allowed for many illegal immigrants to become citizens. The leading GOP contenders, Romney and Rudy Giuliani, both opposed the legislation, which was backed by President Bush (website - news - bio) but failed in the Senate.
On Thursday, Thompson reiterated that the government should strip federal dollars from cities and states that don't report illegal immigrants, and he criticized Giuliani for "going to court to preserve sanctuary cities" while he was mayor of New York City.
Giuliani has defended New York's so-called sanctuary policy, which stopped city workers from reporting suspected illegal immigrants. He sued the federal government to keep his city's policy.
"If we will enforce the border, if we will stop inducements like sanctuary cities, and we will tell employers that they're going to have to obey the law too, then over a period of time, this situation will turn much to the good," Thompson said.
The former Tennessee senator tried to highlight other differences between himself and Giuliani, who has been a supporter of gun control and abortion. Thompson is opposed to both.
He also said the Romney campaign should stop "whining" about losing the National Right To Life Committee's endorsement to him. Thompson said he believed the endorsement would help at the polls.
Your guy hasn’t been running an effective campaign with all the resources that have been granted to him. He lost 30 points at Intrade and is losing ground in polls. Otherwise, why is there even this thread? Fred had promise as the guy who would take down tootyfruityrudy for us by now, but now we see him hoping that the polls turn around and asking for patience. I have a better candidate who wouldn’t squander such resources.
Did your candidate just receive the endorsement of the National Right To Life Committee with 3,000 chapters in ALL 50 states? I didn’t think so! Do you understand what that means? Millions of pro-life members and supporters who will now fundraise and volunteer for FRed!
Funny how convenient that is being said. When the others received endorsements, Fred supporters were saying that it won’t matter people don’t follow endorsements but now that Fred received an endorsement they are important. How typical.
The polls will change when the faux conservatives like the Huckster drop out after running out of cash.
I don’t believe any candidate will drop out anytime soon. This is the Clinton/Guiliani plan all along. Split the conservatives and it is working!!! If people would get behind Duncan Hunter than none of this would be happening. Fred supporters should stop being selfish and get over to Duncan’s side for the good of America!!
Well at least you recognized the scope and gravity of the endorsement...
Yawn???
Come on you are a better FRiend than that. Just cause we disagree does not mean you tell me to “go away”. Anyway I have to go to work, but will discuss with you later. Have a good one.
Make you a deal, get Hunter up to 1 point past Fred for one week on a nationally recognized poll and we’ll talk...
He has to get some of it himself before you drag the rest of us along...
It wasn’t a go away yawn, it was an its late and I have herad that more than a few times today yawn...
I have been trying to get his poll numbers up but everyone around here has their minds made up on who they support. FR is a pretty political site and changing minds is next to impossible!!!
Your obsessive fantasy that “smart money’ is backing Hunter or “would” back Hunter is a joke, my friend.
You undoubtedly think that Hunter is the best man running, as is your privilege. I respect that, but you don’t get points for failing to understand reality, especially the reality of markets. I made my living for many years trading futures so if you want to learn, you can learn from me.
We’ll see whether or not Fred Thompson has squandered his changes. Time will tell.
I only want to add one thing about “liquidity” as you have mentioned the lack thereof in the trade of Hunter contracts on Intrade. Liquidity isn’t something that can be added to a market, it is a description of a market condition wherein buyers and sellers are able to reach deals and make trades.
There are two ways that “liquidity” can come back into the Hunter contract trading:
1 - Hunter comes to life in a significant way and moves into the tier of candidates that now includes Mitt Romney, Fred Thompson, John McCain and Mike Huckabee. But, if anyone thought that had any chance of happening, the trade would already be there. These markets are quite efficient.
2- The Intrade market institues a policy where a contract trading at less than, say 10 or 20 cents, would be allowed a smaller tick than 10 cents. Maybe 1 cent or 1/2 cent. That would let the present holders of Hunter contracts find buyers and a trade would exist on the way from 10 cents per contract down to something lower. How much lower only the market could determine.
I could rip into you “pig belly” analogy, but that would take some time, as you have completely misunderstood how the market for something like agricultural and other commodities works. I’ll confine myself to letting you know that the correct term is “pork bellies”.
Ya think...
You undoubtedly think that Hunter is the best man running, as is your privilege. I respect that,
***Good enough then. Feel free to bring all of the Intraders up to speed over at that intrade forum where they seem to see things differently than you. As long as you have a bias and I have a bias on a political website, your supposed wisdom will be tainted.
Too bad he's not going to win.
Even if every Freeper supported Hunter...he’d still get 1% of the vote. We’re but a few thousand people among millions.
Honestly, I’m not too interested in what is said on a forum at Intrade. I’m looking only at what is happening with the trades. On Hunter, at 10 cents, there are NO buyers. The next tick down is “free”. At “free”, there are no sellers.
Hence, no trades. And there WON’T be unless you decide to buy up some of those ten cent contracts yourself, instead of merely mouthing off about “smart money”. Unless YOUR money ain’t so smart.
Your spam is NOT a response. You sure are vain. You think everyone should be forced to read your stupid opinion repeatedly. I have never seen a bigger nag in my life.
NO MATTER WHO WE GET, IT’S ANY REPUBLICAN OVER THE DEMOCRAT.
Judges
War on Terror
Socialized medicine
High taxation
Indoctrination through the courts
All the above and more are on the line.
ANY Republican that gets in will be better then the best possible Democrat.
Too bad he’s not going to win.
***You might want to ask yourself how many Freepers there are who supported aRINOld over McClintock. Where are they? Why don’t I get to go around giving them a hard time now that we’ve been proven right about aRINOld? Your arguments are exactly the same as the ones who supported arnie, and at some time in the future when we’re both right and it will be pointed out that you could have done something to correct the oncoming mistake, you chose this course. I can do something now to correct this error that the republican party and many in Freeperland have generated, but I can’t do anything about aRINOld. I don’t even get to gloat because all those freepers are silent or gone. Now there are new freepers with the same arguments and if the time comes that we’re both right you will be either silent or gone. You will not have learned the lesson that is staring you in the face.
I still think Fred’s better anyway. He has a better understanding of economics and doesn’t shell out the pork like Hunter did.
And McClintock at least got double digits in the vote. Hunter won’t get that.
Don’t get me wrong...I do admire and like Congressman Hunter. I’ve heard him speak (live) and he’s inspiring. However, 2008 is too critical to back a horse who is in 9th or 10th place in the race. If he were polling in the upper single digits, that would be one thing. But he’s not.
Honestly, I’m not too interested in what is said on a forum at Intrade. I’m looking only at what is happening with the trades.
***That’s because your shiite don’t fly when it’s under the scrutiny of traders. And since you cannot break free from your political bias to talk about trading, your arguments become meaningless.
On Hunter, at 10 cents, there are NO buyers.
***That was the whole point to my post, to show that Hunter is extremely undervalued and to point out that it represents a chance not only to support a conservative, but to make money doing it. 40X return in a few weeks! By all means, please let me know when you see that kind of an opportunity for a conservative candidate.
Hence, no trades. And there WON’T be unless you decide to buy up some of those ten cent contracts yourself, instead of merely mouthing off about “smart money”. Unless YOUR money ain’t so smart.
***Your words here are full of invective rather than the kind of analysis that it really takes to dismantle my argument. It means that you simply like your candidate and you don’t want other people to support the other conservative candidate and you’ll throw in a few points about markets and trading here & there but what you say really doesn’t hold any water. As far as my money, I was recently accused of buying Hunter contracts and posting this stuff in order to get rid of them. So no matter what I post, the Thompson guys will come up with some accusation to make it look bad rather than respond to the analysis. For the record, I have no money down on Hunter, but not because I don’t want to, but the issue was covered on the thread in post #151.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1926032/posts?page=1,250
By what reasonable analysis? You're the one touting the efficiency of the futures markets, yet you fail to accept that Hunter's "potential" is already built into the current trading price. That price has remained stagnant for four months now -- the market has spoken and it says that no one wants to take Hunter at even a potential 1000:1 payout.
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