Posted on 11/14/2007 7:07:30 AM PST by Reaganesque
I realize everything can change fast in Iowa and New Hampshire, and some are rightly skeptical about the value of polling in a caucus state. I also recognize that some pollsters' methods of figuring out who's a "likely voter" are better than others.
But if I were a Romney guy, I'd be pretty pleased about the trends in those two primary states.
Romney's had a lead in the Hawkeye state for a while, but that lead seems to be growing, across several pollsters. Romney is up 16 on his nearest competitor (Huckabee) in Zogby, up 8 on his nearest competitor in ARG, up 23 on Rudy and Huck in University of Iowa, up 14 in Strategic Vision, up 7 in Rasmussen.
In New Hampshire, we see a similar dynamic. Romney is up 12 on Giuliani in the Globe/University of New Hampshire poll, up 11 on Giuliani in Marist, up 15 on Giuliani in Rasmussen, up 7 in ARG, up 9 in the previous Rasmussen, up 10 in St. Anselm.
When the Marist poll came out, I asked the Romney campaign what was driving that, and they responded, "we've been campaigning hard in New Hampshire, including three days there last week. Senator Judd Gregg's endorsement was certainly a boost for us. But while this particular poll may show us with a strong lead, we're going to continue to run in New Hampshire as if we were ten points behind."
Even the South Carolina numbers are starting to look better across several polls — he's leading the field at 29 percent, up 6 percentage points on Giuliani in ARG (okay, really, how is Fred Thompson getting 10 percent in South Carolina?), tied with Giuliani and one point behind Thompson in Winthrop/ETV, in a three-way tie for second and five points behind Thompson in InsiderAdvantage, leading the previous ARG by 3, and down 9 percent in Rasmussen, and even that's five percent higher than the previous poll by that organization.
Because we're seeing an effect in several states where there is advertising, and not just where Romney picked up a big endorsement (like Gregg), I suspect the ads are what is driving the Romney surge. I would also note that we've seen little, if any, change in Romney's national numbers during this time.
Yup that’s all great...
Now if he was just a conservative...
~”They are on their last gasps of air.”~
That wheezing sound is the sour grapes caught in their throats.
At this point, it’s between Romney or Giuliani. I think Romney will win, but it’s beyond reasonable doubt that everyone else is sunk. Those who think Thompson’s poised to leap ahead are in denial. They’ll snap out of it eventually.
I won’t be alone.
vote splitters help too.
I agree. Mitt deserves all the support he’s getting. He’s the hardest working campaigner out there.
Funny you mention that,
I’m a Sam Adams man, with Dewars’n rocks on the side.
YES! and you can see just WHAT his efforts have been leading toward in this article by Vin Suprynowicz: Seizing guns and socializing medicine -- Romney's a Republican?
Fred thompson momentum is gone, he is viewed as a old man with no energy. Its either Rudy or Mitt to win the nomination.
Ding ding ding ....got your answer.
A candidate can't be in a million places at once....UNLESS they buy advertising. Money is essential to a successful campaign. That's one of the main reasons Hunter & the other 1%ers are dead in the water. To deride the fact that money helps is foolish and anti-capitalist.
Until the time that we have 100% publicly-financed elections, you people whining about money need to face the reality that money is an integral part of the campaign.
Money is also a reflection of the value of the candidate. A more enticing candidate is generally going to raise more money, money which helps them raise even more money.
especially when they are able to put up alot of their own money.
Early in the summer I told a friend of mine that I really liked Romney and he should check him out. He didn’t even know who he was at the time.
I met him for a drink this evening and he said that I had been right and he was impressed. He was amazed at the surge.
Now he thinks Romney is the one!
"A toxic blend of naivete and sleaze."
You are a very sore loser!
I am neither a loser nor sore.
I don’t know if you can taste those grapes, but I assure you, they’re very sour.
-the MSM has picked the frontrunners.......I say it’s time to tell them who WE want.
Well I guess we at least need to thank you for keeping these threads bumped. You and the other Anti-Mitters are really helping him!
Mormons coming together and of course his big, big money......get a fanatical base and have the millions to blow, you can virtually and literally have the presidency....
Oh yeah, my discussions of his last-minute alleged conversion from a 35-year pro-abortion position are really helping him out.
It wasn’t a last minute conversion. He was also never “pro abortion”. You guys really just make things up as you go along.
You're calling him a liar.
I was pro-choice when I was young. I was never a rooter for abortion and never was Romney. People evolve and change.
Remember Ronald Reagan?
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