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Rudy in Trouble Without Iowa Win (Morris: Mitt to win primaries, but can't win general election?)
Real Clear Politics ^ | 11/14/07 | Dick Morris

Posted on 11/14/2007 6:54:33 AM PST by teddyballgame

Even as he continues to hold a convincing lead in the national race, Rudy Giuliani may be riding for a big fall in Iowa and the other early state primaries. Mitt Romney, despite his anemic national showing, could sweep Iowa, New Hampshire and Michigan, a trifecta that could give him such momentum as to sweep him to the nomination.

The numbers are scary for Giuliani (and since Mitt doesn't have a prayer in hell of beating Hillary in a general election, scary for us all). While he holds a lead in the national polls (Giuliani 30, Thompson 17, McCain 15, Romney 12, Huckabee 9 -- all data is from the average of the past five polls posted on www.realclearpolitics.com), he is trailing badly in all the early states.

In Iowa, the first caucus, it's Romney 29, Huckabee 15, Giuliani 13, Thompson 12, McCain 8. And New Hampshire isn't much better. There it's Romney also in the lead with 32 percent, Rudy a distant second at 21 percent, McCain at 16 percent, Huckabee at 7 percent and Thompson at 5 percent. And Michigan, which might be just a few days after New Hampshire, shows Romney also in the lead at 25 percent with Rudy at 20 percent.

(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2008; dickmorris; elections; giuliani; ia2008; mittromney; romney
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I think he has the first half right.
1 posted on 11/14/2007 6:54:35 AM PST by teddyballgame
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To: teddyballgame
Romney can’t beat Hillary and neither can Rudy.
2 posted on 11/14/2007 6:58:06 AM PST by JRochelle (Thanks to RomneyCare, abortions in MA now cost only $50.00.)
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To: teddyballgame
Why is it a foregone conclusion that Romney can’t beat Hillary? With a well run campaign, I think any of the Republican front runners could beat her. Her nomination isn’t a foregone conclusion either.
3 posted on 11/14/2007 6:58:28 AM PST by tips up
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To: teddyballgame

.."spit out that toenail clipping and tell us what you really thing Dick"

4 posted on 11/14/2007 6:59:47 AM PST by Doogle (USAF.68-73..8th TFW Ubon Thailand..never store a threat you should have eliminated))
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To: teddyballgame

>>The numbers are scary for Giuliani (and since Mitt doesn’t have a prayer in hell of beating Hillary in a general election, scary for us all). <<

OK, I’m plenty scared now.


5 posted on 11/14/2007 6:59:49 AM PST by NKStarr
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To: tips up

I think Hillary is very beatable and especially by Romney. She is stumbling bad against a couple of nobodies (Obamama & Breck Girl) despite a fawning press. The base just needs to get energized - they will with the thought of Hillary as President.


6 posted on 11/14/2007 7:05:10 AM PST by teddyballgame (red man in a blue state)
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To: teddyballgame
Morris has it wrong. Hillary is the one who has to flip one Red State to have a chance of winning. If Romney actually got the nomination he would be hard to beat in Michigan and would put Massachussetts in play.

How does she overcome that?

Morris is an overpaid, consistently wrong pundit at best..........

7 posted on 11/14/2007 7:06:37 AM PST by Lakeshark (Thank a member of the US armed forces for their sacrifice)
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To: teddyballgame

Dick Morris is a Dick. Always has been, always will be.


8 posted on 11/14/2007 7:06:48 AM PST by elizabetty ("Nothing great was ever achieved without enthusiasm." .Ralph Waldo Emerson)
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To: NKStarr

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1925585/posts


9 posted on 11/14/2007 7:06:49 AM PST by Huck (Soylent Green is People.)
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To: teddyballgame

Romney is spending alot of money to get his name out there. I guess if he does win these early primaries ...it shows that money does buy elections.


10 posted on 11/14/2007 7:07:26 AM PST by donnab (saving liberals brains....one moron at a time.)
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To: JRochelle
Wrong, Hillary is very beatable. Some Dems love the IDEA of her but not the reality of her being POTUS.
11 posted on 11/14/2007 7:07:36 AM PST by elizabetty ("Nothing great was ever achieved without enthusiasm." .Ralph Waldo Emerson)
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To: JRochelle

The one thing that Rudy has a shot at doing that Mitt cannot is winning in NJ, that would offset a loss in Ohio or virtually guarantee and election.

The Mitt phenom does show that maybe our primary system is out of whack, NH over say FL? A Republican hasn’t won in the NE since maybe GHWB.


12 posted on 11/14/2007 7:08:12 AM PST by padre35 (Conservative in Exile/ Isaiah 3.3)
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To: teddyballgame

Sad about Dickie boy — early dementia and all...


13 posted on 11/14/2007 7:08:49 AM PST by claudiustg (You know it. I know it.)
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To: Lakeshark

He’ll put Michigan in plan, but not Massachusetts. Despite being Governor here - it is the most liberal state in the country. He’ll put NH back in play that went to Kerry last election.


14 posted on 11/14/2007 7:09:51 AM PST by teddyballgame (red man in a blue state)
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To: teddyballgame

Mitt has broader support than does Rudy. I’m still hoping Fred will pull it out with a strong run starting in South Carolina.


15 posted on 11/14/2007 7:09:57 AM PST by PAR35
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To: padre35

In the end a liberal state will go with the most liberal candidate, that would be Hillary.


16 posted on 11/14/2007 7:10:32 AM PST by JRochelle (Thanks to RomneyCare, abortions in MA now cost only $50.00.)
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To: padre35

Guiliani could also do well in Maine and New Hampshire in a general election.

It used to be that the GOP could always count on winning NH - but lately that hasn’t been the case.

That’s only 8 electoral votes - but in a tight race, I’ll gladly take ‘em.


17 posted on 11/14/2007 7:11:28 AM PST by MplsSteve
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Mitt would do great in the general election, he does put MA, MI and NH in play.

I’m from MA, and I’m a conservative, and I can tell you he would win MA.

The man is a great candidate and he’s showing that when he has a chance to speak with the people, the people like what he has to say.


18 posted on 11/14/2007 7:12:19 AM PST by gjones77
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To: teddyballgame

Isn’t this the strategies being employed by Romney/Giuliani? Romney is banking on and spending tons of money to win IA/NH etc and take those wins into Super Tuesday. Giuliani is hoping to stop Romney by winning FL and then take the big states in Super Tuesday. Somehow Fred has to figure out where his plan falls and get it into high gear....

49 Days and Iowa starts the weeding process......


19 posted on 11/14/2007 7:12:52 AM PST by deport (>>>--Iowa Caucuses .. 49 days and counting--<<< [ Meanwhile:-- Cue Spooky Music--])
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To: teddyballgame

I think he’s just as screwed up on this as he was about Howard Dean in 04.

THe MSM ‘political experts’ simply haven’t lived up to the moniker in the past three election cycles when you review what they wrote before each election day.

As for Dick Morris, there is one well documented fact about him that is relevant to this column. When the topic is the Clinton’s, his own personal anomisity towards them - maybe resentment is the better term - destroys his political instincts completely. time and time again he’s made grand pronouncements (Hilary won’t run for the Senate, Hillary won’t win the election for the Senate, etc etc etc) that have looked RIDICULOUS after the fact.

On other political campaigns, his insights are useful. On this one however, history shows he’s worthless.


20 posted on 11/14/2007 7:12:57 AM PST by Badeye (That Karma thing keeps coming around, eh Sally? (chuckle))
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