Posted on 11/13/2007 8:08:22 AM PST by Spiff
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows Rudy Giuliani on top, Mitt Romney in second, and Fred Thompson sinking in the race for the Republican Presidential Nomination. Giuliani attracts 27% support from Likely Republican Primary voters nationwide while Romney has moved up a couple of points to 16%. John McCain remains in third at 13% while Thompson is now tied with Mike Huckabee at 11%. Ron Paul's support fell a point to 5% and no other Republican tops 2% (see recent daily numbers).
In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, Senator Hillary Clinton is the top choice for 41% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters. Senator Barack Obama earns the vote from 20% while former Senator John Edwards attracts 17%. Bill Richardson is preferred by 5% and no other candidate tops the 3% level among Likely Democratic Primary Voters (see recent daily numbers).
Just 25% of Americans believe Democratic candidates have been “piling on” Clinton and attacking her unfairly. Democrats are more likely to believe that to be the case, but there is no gender gap on the issue.
New state election polls show Giuliani and McCain competitive with Clinton in Connecticut, Clinton competitive in Georgia, and Clinton doing well in Tennessee against anyone but Thompson. Georgia Senator Saxby Chambliss has solid leads over three potential challengers in his bid for re-election and former Senator Bill Frist is a very early favorite for the 2010 Governor’s election in Tennessee.
Romney is now seen as the most conservative Republican candidate, a crown previously worn by Thompson. Huckabee is gaining fast, hampered only by a relatively low level of name recognition. Polling data from the past week has been kind to Romney, Huckabee, and McCain.
Among Democrats, the campaign has become a tale of two narratives that will collide in Iowa on January 3. In one narrative, Clinton’s campaign has been hurt by the stumbles of recent weeks while the other considers her the dominant frontrunner. Both have the virtue of being true.
Finally, 61% of Americans now want U.S. troops to come home from Iraq within the year.
The Rasmussen Reports Election 2008 Presidential Tracking Poll is updated daily, Monday through Friday. The Presidential Tracking Poll will be updated seven days a week beginning Saturday, December 1, 2007. Daily results are based upon a four day rolling average and new results are posted each day by noon Eastern.
Daily tracking results are from survey interviews conducted over four days ending last night. Each update includes approximately 750 Likely Democratic Primary Voters and 600 Likely Republican Primary Voters. Margin of sampling error for each is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
Rasmussen Reports provides a weekly analysis of both the Republican and Democratic race each Monday.
Each Monday, full week results are released based upon a seven-day rolling average. While the daily tracking result are useful for measuring quick reaction to events in the news, the full week results provide an effective means for evaluating longer-term trends.
3rd and last are statistically tied. 2nd is not.
FALSE. 2d, 3d, 4th and 5th are statistically tied. Last is a gaggle of guys
Your man Fred Thompson is plummeting in the polls, so you start personal attacks on a Freeper, again.
Why don't you do something useful for once, Petronski, like find a poll that Fred isn't dropping in? That should keep you busy for awhile.
Spiff contributes info and analysis to the forum, while you do nothing but make crude and lame personal attacks.
OK I see now. It wasn’t about the actual poll, but rather a seemingly misleading headline.
Thanks for the clarification.
Maybe Fred will rethink it...he’s in the home stretch and time is running out...
If tomorrow Romney were at 90% and Fred at 2%, Spiff would still have been lying today.
Spiff contributes info and analysis to the forum...
...and some of it is true!
That should keep you busy for awhile.
As if I didn't have enough else to do, fact checking Spiff seems to be a full-time job in itself.
I think it has more to do with anticipation and unreasonable expectations.
Elements in the press have been hounding Fred with cries of laziness and poor preparation, and the public appears to be buying it. He has a history of hard work and accomplishments that should put the laziness criticisms to bed, but the press looks for things they can spin and portray everything he says and does with the worst possible interpretation.
The more I see from Thompson, the more I like him. However, there are few things the establishment fears more than a small government conservative, and Thompson is the closest to that I think we've seen in a long time.
One problem he's going to have a hard time overcoming, is that the religious right is morally conservative, but not very politically conservative. They want the government to enforce morality. They believe in intrusive government.
When Thompson talks about state's rights and returning control over a lot of issues to the states, they see that as a step in the wrong direction. So we really shouldn't be that surprised to see leaders from the religious right endorsing big government candidates.
That makes it difficult for a candidate that wants to return power to the states and constrain the government to win the Republican nomination.
I'm afraid that those of us that believe in small government and state's rights really are not a majority even in the Republican Party.
And to be fair to Spiff, Rasmussen characterizes Thompson as “sinking.” Also, Rasmussen says that McCain is in third and indicates the Thompson and Huckabee are tied at 11%, which implies they are tied for fourth, which is last amongst the frontrunners.
If only "amongst the frontrunners" had been stated, it would not have been a lie (completely setting aside the fact that 2d, 3d, 4th and 5th are statistically tied).
“they are just placing more importance on issues other than abortion, gays and guns. Guiliani’s lead isn’t manufactured. It is real.”
I don’t buy that. Guiliani’s lead is based on one thing 9/11 and the perception that he is some kind of a hardcore warrior/patriot. That’s what people are attarcted to.
And while that may be the case in terms of his clear, passionate rhetoric in talking about terror - it no way translates to his other views and positions.
People are lazy and swayed by the superficial.
Plus, abortion, gays and guns are NOT consevative issues (except in relation to constitutional issues)
Guns are protected by the 2nd amendment, and the constitution does not give a right to murder or to gain special privledges above other citizens.
So, in terms of those issues, I’d vote for a candidate with a strict constructionist view of the constitution - whether or not they ever mention the words gays, guns or abortion is irrelevant.
In terms of my own top 3 issues - and conservative principles — I’d say Smaller government (i.e. lower taxes, cutting programs), security( (fence/enforcing deportation laws, tough on terror war), personal freedom (see smaller governemnt.
That is what I would have done.
I think that's right. Thompson raised expectations way too high by waiting so long and presenting himself as this conservative messiah who would save the party.
People bought into it at first, sending his poll numbers into the stratosphere when he first announced. Then they found he was not a god, but a mere man with flaws like all the other candidates, sending his poll numbers down in the disappointment.
We'll see whether he picks up again. I doubt it. I think he's peaked and I think he'll drop out by late January. But then again my record at predicting what Thompson does hasn't been very good. :(
Not only that; the numbers clearly support that characterization. We're talking polls moving from close to 30% down to just over 10%. That's huge!
“Thompson raised expectations way too high by waiting so long and presenting himself as this conservative messiah who would save the party.”
In all fairness to Mr.Thompson. I think he’s only responsible for half of what you stated. I believe many people really wanted a messiah figure and projected that onto Mr. Thompson. Mr. Thompson did play to that by being coy about his intentions, and the “hard to get” stance he took before declaring. Either way there’s no doubt that expectations were extremely high, and seem to be falling rather quickly and dramatically.
“Not only that; the numbers clearly support that characterization. We’re talking polls moving from close to 30% down to just over 10%. That’s huge!”
I think you’re correct. regardless of whether or not FDT is statistically tied for 2d, 3d, & 4th place, with 16% or 11%. The facts seem to show that he’s trending down. Huckabee seems to be doing the opposite.
I could live with anybody but Rudy though I am not enthused by any of them. Absent CFR and illegals I would be an enthusiastic supporter of John McCain. He was after all correct from the gitgo on troop levels in Iraq.
Rudy is personal, I won't vote for him for anything.
Thank you.
“WooHoo!”
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