Posted on 11/13/2007 8:08:22 AM PST by Spiff
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows Rudy Giuliani on top, Mitt Romney in second, and Fred Thompson sinking in the race for the Republican Presidential Nomination. Giuliani attracts 27% support from Likely Republican Primary voters nationwide while Romney has moved up a couple of points to 16%. John McCain remains in third at 13% while Thompson is now tied with Mike Huckabee at 11%. Ron Paul's support fell a point to 5% and no other Republican tops 2% (see recent daily numbers).
In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, Senator Hillary Clinton is the top choice for 41% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters. Senator Barack Obama earns the vote from 20% while former Senator John Edwards attracts 17%. Bill Richardson is preferred by 5% and no other candidate tops the 3% level among Likely Democratic Primary Voters (see recent daily numbers).
Just 25% of Americans believe Democratic candidates have been “piling on” Clinton and attacking her unfairly. Democrats are more likely to believe that to be the case, but there is no gender gap on the issue.
New state election polls show Giuliani and McCain competitive with Clinton in Connecticut, Clinton competitive in Georgia, and Clinton doing well in Tennessee against anyone but Thompson. Georgia Senator Saxby Chambliss has solid leads over three potential challengers in his bid for re-election and former Senator Bill Frist is a very early favorite for the 2010 Governor’s election in Tennessee.
Romney is now seen as the most conservative Republican candidate, a crown previously worn by Thompson. Huckabee is gaining fast, hampered only by a relatively low level of name recognition. Polling data from the past week has been kind to Romney, Huckabee, and McCain.
Among Democrats, the campaign has become a tale of two narratives that will collide in Iowa on January 3. In one narrative, Clinton’s campaign has been hurt by the stumbles of recent weeks while the other considers her the dominant frontrunner. Both have the virtue of being true.
Finally, 61% of Americans now want U.S. troops to come home from Iraq within the year.
The Rasmussen Reports Election 2008 Presidential Tracking Poll is updated daily, Monday through Friday. The Presidential Tracking Poll will be updated seven days a week beginning Saturday, December 1, 2007. Daily results are based upon a four day rolling average and new results are posted each day by noon Eastern.
Daily tracking results are from survey interviews conducted over four days ending last night. Each update includes approximately 750 Likely Democratic Primary Voters and 600 Likely Republican Primary Voters. Margin of sampling error for each is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
Rasmussen Reports provides a weekly analysis of both the Republican and Democratic race each Monday.
Each Monday, full week results are released based upon a seven-day rolling average. While the daily tracking result are useful for measuring quick reaction to events in the news, the full week results provide an effective means for evaluating longer-term trends.
I think the only choices voters will have are the sharks, or those handled by sharks.
This is not the first big letdown for Fred. Most probably recall that he chaired the Senate committee which investigated campaign contributions during the Clinton years, and more specifically the contributions from China. The buildup to those hearing portrayed it as a golden opportunity for Fred to become a national figure and a charismatic presidential possibility the Dems should fear.
As it turned out, the hearing were a bust. Most of the key witnesses headed for Asia and John Glenn was allowed to almost dominate the hearings while covering for the Clintons. I followed the buildup, watched some of the hearings, and it was similar to now: a big letdown and Fred falling far short of expectations.
I’d hoped Fred might become the nominee, but now it looks as if Romney is the most likely alternative to Rudy
No worry about having to vote for Paul, as he ruined any chance of getting the Republican nomination when he sided with Code Pink on the war.........
I do not want to have to vote for McCain or Huckabee............
I would vote for Thompson, but I prefer Hunter........neither is leading in the polls............
If it comes down to Romney vs Giuliani, Romney gets my vote hands down every time..........
The big story here is Thompson's big decline, dropping from close to 30% down to just over 10%! That's huge, both statistically and economically.
Here's a theory: 9-11...
and Bush's elevating of the threat of terrorism above all else for 6 years.
Most of the base weren't purists to begin with, and so it's entirely plausible that a good chunk of them are now 'national security voters', thus favoring Guiliani.
People, on the whole, generally aren't too bright. That's why leaders are so important and define great periods in history while the people generally do not. Cynical, but proven by history.
You are probably right.
Best case scenario, statistically tied, worst-case, he’s 10 points behind Mitt... That’s the whole story
It seems to me that the big changes will take place when candidates start dropping out. Fred out sends his people to ...Romney and/or Huckabee and/or McCain? Fred supporters won’t go Rudy, and won’t go to the no-hopers. Today it’s a five person race, Rudy, Mitt, Huck, McCain and Fred. McCain out sends support to Rudy, Huck and Mitt? Huck out helps McCain and Mitt and Rudy?
It’s starting to look like a race between Mitt and Rudy unless there are some surprises coming.
Whew, c’mon Fred put the chains on and get some traction.
Sadly, personal attacks seem to be your forte. Spiff is the only one talking logic and reason around here with facts and evidence to support his arguments.
A good corollary chart would be to put the number of Thompson's TV ads and campaign appearances up next to Thompson's poll numbers. Thompson's first TV ads hit last week, and corollary to that, his support has taken another drastic dive down to unplumbed depths.
The real concern should be what else is the media holding on to, until he's the candidate... There are lots of Ital-Americans on the list of criminals he's been associated with recently or in the past... How soon until Rudy is synonymous with the mafia, in people's minds?
“Most of the base weren’t purists to begin with, and so it’s entirely plausible that a good chunk of them are now ‘national security voters’, thus favoring Guiliani.”
Maybe, but maybe not. Rudy is still dancing all around the immigration issue,the issue that sunk McCain and has now damaged Hillary more than anything thus far. Rudy’s been allowed to dance around so far, but once he’s outed and his open borders/pro-amnesty/sanctuary city record is understood by most Republicans, he could see his support plunge within a short time.
McCain’s ‘comeback’ has been possible because the immigration issue has been mostly quiet in the Republican arena for a couple of months. But when it comes back loud and clear, and candidates have to be more specific, no one is more vulnerable than Rudy, not to mention his being pro-abortion, pro-gay rights, anti-gun rights, etc.
Some significant shifts can still take place among the Republican candidates once voters focus more on the campaigns and specific issues.
Correction: Thompson's first NATIONAL TV ads hit last week. Somehow the word "national" got lost between my brain and my keyboard. Weird.
Yes, he is. And, it makes perfect sense since he actually supports more of the GOP platform -- like no news taxes, tort reform, a marriage amendment and the HLA.
Some of his "facts and evidence" are actually true!
Giuliani 27% (meaning his support falls in the range of 31% to 23%)
Romney 16% (support in the range of 20% to 12%)
McCain 13% (support in the range of 9% - 17%)
Huckabee & Thompson 11% (support in the range of 15% to 7%)
So in essence, there is a statistical tie for second place among all the candidates listed except Rudy.
“Some of his “facts and evidence” are actually true!”
I’m not trying to be contrary here, but I seem to have missed
whatever is causing your problem with Spiff.
All I saw was the posting of a poll that showed FDT trending down. Did Spiff tamper with the poll? Again I’m not trying to start a flame war, I just don’t see what bone of contention is.
The lie was pulled from the title by the moderators (Fred tied for last). That’s just one example.
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